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What would the effects be of Mexico defeating the United States, lets say the original POD is a more hostile Oregon, but no war.

The Brits go in supporting Mexico with "vollunteers" and weapon supplies. For the sake of the scenario lets not pick this POD to death.

The Mexicans manage to retain California, New Mexico, and western Texas, reducing the state to the claims Mexico recognized.

What are the effects of this scenario on the Confederate States/The US Civil War in general?
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