Effects of a lost American Revolution on the French

[Chrispi]

What would happen to the French Revolution (and Napoleon Bonaparte) if the Americans lost their revolution?

A) Without French support of the Americans, the financial crisis leading to the Revolution is delayed or possibly averted. Most likely there will be a financial crisis in the late 1790s, especially if Versailles is profligate in other endeavors (maybe increased colonization of the South Pacific.)

B) The French Crisis will not, in all probability, overthrow the ancien regime. Louis would be forced to become a constitutional monarch, not face the guillotine.

C) With no political crisis in France due to the Revolution and Terror, Napoleon Bonaparte has no opening for greatness. I say the best he could hope for is the rank of colonel.

 

[Chrispi]

Hmmm. Nobody contests this. What a pity. I was hoping to get somebody to bring ol Boney back from the dead.

 

[eddie_falco]

The problem with making Louis XVI a constitutional monarch instead of facing the guillotine, was the snowball effect of the Revolution. When he was made to wear the tri-colour cockade, very few people could have predicted within a year or so the kind of bloodshed and upheaval that did occur. Once he made any kind of concession to the revolutionaries (especially after vowing for so long not to do so, insisting that it was his "divine right" to absolute rule), the more radical groups would sense it as a sign of weakness, and their demands grew more extreme.

 

[Faeelin]

Hmmm. Nobody contests this. What a pity. I was hoping to get somebody to bring ol Boney back from the dead.

If you say his names three times in a row I"ll comment.

A) Without French support of the Americans, the financial crisis leading to the Revolution is delayed or possibly averted. Most likely there will be a financial crisis in the late 1790s, especially if Versailles is profligate in other endeavors (maybe increased colonization of the South Pacific.)

I'm of the opinion that the french would've been profligerate somewhere else; maybe in the war of bavarian succession, or polish partitions, or wars with the turk.

B) The French Crisis will not, in all probability, overthrow the ancien regime. Louis would be forced to become a constitutional monarch, not face the guillotine.

It's worth noting that Lafayette was a constitutional monarchist. I think whether or not france becomes a republic is not based on what happens in america.

C) With no political crisis in France due to the Revolution and Terror, Napoleon Bonaparte has no opening for greatness. I say the best he could hope for is the rank of colonel.

The directory could send him to america, where the flames of liberty are once again alight.

 

[DuQuense]

There would be a difference depending on wheither this defeat was before or after the French started helping.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Okay!! I Dispute This Idea....

I am certain that a defeat of the American Revolution by the British would have severe consequences. First, you would have the sudden oppression of French in Quebec, and the sudden rise in tensions along the Louisiana Territory border. Second, you are asking the French to accept another major military campaign, that nearly bankrupts the economy. As an analogy, consider the embarassment of the American government after its defeat in Vietnam, and its ramifications on the political landscape. Third, you have the "philosophes" of the Enlightenment considered with great ill-repute and the embarassment of a "fool's errand". There is the danger of a Prussian-style political repression of the region, bringing about an even more totalitarian regime. Try to imagine a French Revolution along the lines of Otto von Bismarck's Prussia.

 

[Chrispi]

First, you would have the sudden oppression of French in Quebec, and the sudden rise in tensions along the Louisiana Territory border. Second, you are asking the French to accept another major military campaign, that nearly bankrupts the economy. As an analogy, consider the embarassment of the American government after its defeat in Vietnam, and its ramifications on the political landscape.

How so? France abandoned North America thirty years earlier (Louisiana is Spanish territory in 1776, remember.) There isn't that much love lost for snowy Quebec (Que l'enfer! C'est seulement Canada.)

Third, you have the "philosophes" of the Enlightenment considered with great ill-repute and the embarassment of a "fool's errand". There is the danger of a Prussian-style political repression of the region, bringing about an even more totalitarian regime. Try to imagine a French Revolution along the lines of Otto von Bismarck's Prussia.

The philosophes and the American aristocracy are going to be spurned after Howe's Hudson campaign. But it was the same philosophes who provided the fuel for the French revolution. Weaker philosophes will mean much weaker "Jacobins."