Effects of a Longer ACW.

Just having a little think of what would happen after a longer ACW. I don't mean the South winning, but things going their way a bit better. Many 'small' POD's. Things like the Atlanta Campaign is more bloody and costly for the North. They get to Atlanta a few months later. The South wins the Battle of the Wilderness and stops the North advancing, again, for a few months.
The South would still lose, no question, however, more men lost to the North and a war which lasts into early/middle of 1866, without the North over running all of the South.

How would this play out, post war?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Your PODs mean almost certainly McClellan election in 1864.

Exactly. The 1864 election is the key moment of the entire war.

The interesting question is what happens afterwards: McClellan wants the war to continue while the rest of the Democratic Party wants to end it.

Since this question is a critical plot point in Shattered Nation, I have spent years researching the circumstances to try and understand what might have happened.

The fact is that McClellan was ambivalent about continuing the war. He wanted the presidency and would have followed whatever course made that most likely. He only repudiated the peace plank that Vallandigham and others had written AFTER Atlanta had fallen. Until that moment, he had kept his cards close to his chest. He told many Peace Democrats, including Manton Marble (editor of the New York World) that he was open to an armistice with the Confederacy. And in 1863, McClellan had endorsed a Copperhead candidate for governor of Pennsylvania.

If McClellan wins the election, it must mean that the Union did not do as well on the battlefield in the summer of 1864 as it did IOTL. And if this is the case, it makes it more likely that McClellan would have agreed to some sort of ceasefire and the opening of negotiations. He said, and probably meant, that he would insist upon a restoration of the Union. But the moment a ceasefire goes into effect, I think Confederate independence becomes very likely. There would have been no political will for a resumption of hostilities after they had ended. The Peace Democrats would have been able to block it, and Republicans might not have wanted it if (as appears certain) McClellan dropped emancipation as a condition of peace.
 
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Anaxagoras

Banned
From the Southern perspective, the war can't really last much longer than it did IOTL (perhaps to the end of 1865 at the latest) because of the rapidly accelerating inflation that was tearing the Southern economy apart.

The South has until the end of 1864 to win the war. After that, it's all over no matter what.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
I understand your point, but I don't see the facts on the ground...

Anaxogoras - I understand your point, but I don't see the facts on the ground...

First, based on the realities of the popular and electoral college votes, I don't see a path to the presidency for McClellan; given that this is long before Gallup, there's a lot of dramatic rhetoric about the 1864 election (which certainly served the purposes of both candidates) but looking at how lopsided the results were in November, I think it is wide open as to what might have actually happened on Election Day, even absent the capture of Atlanta, etc.

Second, the reality is that the US had decisively beaten the rebellion by 1864; the border states, West Virginia, essentially all of Tennessee, most of Louisiana, much of Arkansas, and various important parts of Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, etc were under US control. Something close to 100,000 men of African ancestry were in uniform, either with the volunteers, USCTs, or the Navy. "White" US volunteer regiments had been raised, or were being raised, in every rebel state but South Carolina.

Third, whoever gets elected in November does not get sworn in until March 4, 1865...by which time, Columbia, Charleston, AND Wilmington are in US hands, much less Atlanta. Tennessee had approved a state constitution abolishing slavery. Richmond fell April 2, Appomatox is April 9 (all of one month and five days after Lincoln's second inaugural); cripes, the REBELS had approved arming slaves March 13...

Exactly what is there to sign an armistice over? Even George B. McClellan at his most obtuse could not foul up the rebel surrender given the strategic realities of the war on March 4, 1865...

Best,
 
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Exactly. The 1864 election is the key moment of the entire war.



Since this question is a critical plot point in Shattered Nation, I have spent years researching the circumstances to try and understand what might have happened.

The fact is that McClellan was ambivalent about continuing the war. He wanted the presidency and would have followed whatever course made that most likely. He only repudiated the peace plank that Vallandigham and others had written AFTER Atlanta had fallen. Until that moment, he had kept his cards close to his chest. He told many Peace Democrats, including Manton Marble (editor of the New York World) that he was open to an armistice with the Confederacy. And in 1863, McClellan had endorsed a Copperhead candidate for governor of Pennsylvania.

If McClellan wins the election, it must mean that the Union did not do as well on the battlefield in the summer of 1864 as it did IOTL. And if this is the case, it makes it more likely that McClellan would have agreed to some sort of ceasefire and the opening of negotiations. He said, and probably meant, that he would insist upon a restoration of the Union. But the moment a ceasefire goes into effect, I think Confederate independence becomes very likely. There would have been no political will for a resumption of hostilities after they had ended. The Peace Democrats would have been able to block it, and Republicans might not have wanted it if (as appears certain) McClellan dropped emancipation as a condition of peace.


Not necessarily, as one English politician at the time said (I think it was Palmerston himself) wars have been restarted all the time. If there is no real agreement round 2 breaks out.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Third, whoever gets elected in November does not get sworn in until March 4, 1865...by which time, Columbia, Charleston, AND Wilmington are in US hands, much less Atlanta. Tennessee had approved a state constitution abolishing slavery. Richmond fell April 2, Appomatox is April 9 (all of one month and five days after Lincoln's second inaugural); cripes, the REBELS had approved arming slaves March 13...

You're aware that this is an alternate history site, right? Obviously, if McClellan rather than Lincoln wins the election, it means that events have not gone as they did IOTL.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Except my point is that even with an upset in the election,

You're aware that this is an alternate history site, right? Obviously, if McClellan rather than Lincoln wins the election, it means that events have not gone as they did IOTL.


Except my point is that even with an upset in the 1864 election, by the time GBM is sworn into office in 1865, the war is won...if that's the POD.

If the POD is earlier than November, 1864, than the liklihood of that - whatever it is - is a separate issue.

Have you posted something that explains what happens before November, 1864?

Best,
 
Thanks for the replies, but I think you have missed the point I am trying to make. With a longer war what happens in the South after the war is over. As I said the North would still have won, but with a number of small defeats they are slowed down. There will be a slightly larger loss of life, it would just take longer that is all. Does the North punish the South more or do they have more respect and it is so 'bad'? Is there still a North/South divide? Does the civil right movement still happen more or less OLT? That kind of thing, if you know what I mean.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
The key question is (not to be completely "great man" but still):

The key question is (not to be completely "great man" but still):

Does Lincoln live to serve out his second term?

That is really the biggest issue in terms of reconstruction.

Best,
 
Third, whoever gets elected in November does not get sworn in until March 4, 1865

This is always something that the McClellan wins in 64 books and thread i've read seem to forget. Even if he had won Lincoln probably would've ordered a winter campaign to end the war before he left office. If he did that you'd have the war end around the same time it did OTL at worst.
 
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