Effects of a failed Operational Plan Three

Could Operational Plan Three be used in a war between America and Germany started in December 1902 because of the Venezuelan Crisis? Great Britain could be involved in the same war if the United States opens fires on the Anglo-German armada if Kaiser Wilhelm II doesn't respond to the ultimatum. And if this is seen as a declaration of war, could Italy and AH also get involved?

If America is already focused on a Canadian front, a Caribbean front, and a Pacific front, could the North Eastern sea board be vulnerable?

May write my first long time line on this.
 
Actually, I'd say there's next to no chance Britain would get involved. If Willy had called TR's bluff, and then found out that TR never bluffs, the Brits would almost certainly declare neutrality.
 

wormyguy

Banned
There was a thread about an attempted German invasion of the US in 1901 a few months ago - I pointed out that the German fleet at the time was both smaller and less modern than the American fleet, and that it was also more heavily deployed to the Pacific than the American.

In other words, the whole plan is a non-starter. It's the functional equivalent of Sealion, except the enemy is 3000 miles away, not 20. I'd give a 1% chance of any group of more than 100 soldiers getting within 40 miles of the American shore.
 

Markus

Banned
With regard to ideas of Willy ordering a pre-WW1 S...n on steroids in spite of the whole thing being obviously impossible to pull off: What about "constitutional monarchary" and "parliament controlling the budget" is so hard to understand?
 
The mostly like timeframe for this to realistically happen would be during the Spanish-American War. The Spanish would, mid-war, decide that their worldwide colonial possessions were going to be lost and "invite" the Germans to come in and take them, for a price. The Monroe Doctrine and the Spanish-American War say this is a no-no, have some incidents whip up public opinion (the near-run in OTL: the German Pacific Squadron "conveniently" sailed into Manila Bay right after Dewey did to "protect German interests"...what if they decide to protect them by blowing Dewey away?), and you have a war on your hands.

In which case the plan is still to go to New York with an Army Corps. Ulp.
 
Could Operational Plan Three be used in a war between America and Germany started in December 1902 because of the Venezuelan Crisis? Great Britain could be involved in the same war if the United States opens fires on the Anglo-German armada if Kaiser Wilhelm II doesn't respond to the ultimatum. And if this is seen as a declaration of war, could Italy and AH also get involved?

If America is already focused on a Canadian front, a Caribbean front, and a Pacific front, could the North Eastern sea board be vulnerable?

May write my first long time line on this.

I doubt Great Britain would get involved--too much to lose. But the fear of doing so could spread the US fleet thin, and make the German assault easier. As for Italy and AH, I'm really not sure.

With regard to ideas of Willy ordering a pre-WW1 S...n on steroids in spite of the whole thing being obviously impossible to pull off: What about "constitutional monarchary" and "parliament controlling the budget" is so hard to understand?
Ok, I see your point. But as Zachscape noted, there were disputes between Germany and America at the time. It's not impossible that one could turn into a shooting war. However, at that point, it wouldn't be a 'surprise attack' on the USA, which could totally foil the plan.

Edit: And are you sure about the constitutional monarchy rules? I was under the impression that the Emperor of Germany conducted all foreign affairs--as in, declare war or make peace. Did he consult the Riechstag before joining WW1?
 
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Markus

Banned
Ok, I see your point. But as Zachscape noted, there were disputes between Germany and America at the time. It's not impossible that one could turn into a shooting war. However, at that point, it wouldn't be a 'surprise attack' on the USA, which could totally foil the plan.

Edit: And are you sure about the constitutional monarchy rules? I was under the impression that the Emperor of Germany conducted all foreign affairs--as in, declare war or make peace. Did he consult the Riechstag before joining WW1?

To answer the second question first: He was the CiC and thus had the power to order the military into action but in order to keep it in action one needs what? Money, tons of it and that was under the Reichstag´s control. The strongest party in said Reichstag was the SPD with 27%.

Hmm, the official US history of that war states that there were German and French and British flotillas off Manila and alleges all of them wanted the PI for themselfs. I´m also sceptical the Germans would have pressed the issue. They did not once Dewey called their bluff and there was another tense situation at Samoa, which was IIRC the result of two hot-head CO out of reach of their governments. And last but not least I can´t see the German military let alone the people support a war with the USA over some third world real estate with little value. The whole "colony-thing" was not uncontroversial overe here.
 
An aggressive war against the USA would have been rather unpopular in Germany itself for several reasons:

- there were a lot of German immigrants in the United States, these ties were in many cases still fresh and it might have been perceived as a war against fellow brethren. IIRC, German-American diplomatic relations had overall been well prior to 1914.

- unlike in 1914, the war couldn't be sold to the SPD and the Liberals as a defensive war against the Russian authocracy - as had been said before, financing this war could be difficult

- unlike France, the USA weren't perceived as vile arch-enemies and unlike Great Britain, the USA weren't perceived as a main economic rival

- last but not least: a very difficult war, prone to end in desaster, it could easily lead to a constitutional crisis or at least question the leadership of anyone who greenlighted this. If it was Wilhelm II, expect him to be somehow pushed away from position of power, either by abdication in favour of his son , constitutional reform or the military curbing his influence
 
An aggressive war against the USA would have been rather unpopular in Germany itself for several reasons:

- there were a lot of German immigrants in the United States, these ties were in many cases still fresh and it might have been perceived as a war against fellow brethren. IIRC, German-American diplomatic relations had overall been well prior to 1914.

- unlike in 1914, the war couldn't be sold to the SPD and the Liberals as a defensive war against the Russian authocracy - as had been said before, financing this war could be difficult

- unlike France, the USA weren't perceived as vile arch-enemies and unlike Great Britain, the USA weren't perceived as a main economic rival

- last but not least: a very difficult war, prone to end in desaster, it could easily lead to a constitutional crisis or at least question the leadership of anyone who greenlighted this. If it was Wilhelm II, expect him to be somehow pushed away from position of power, either by abdication in favour of his son , constitutional reform or the military curbing his influence

After reading this thread, I've realized that the unprovoked surpise attack scenario is pretty much a dud. That said, there were numerous events that could have drastically raised tensions. I mean, if Germany actually moves to annex the Philippines in 1898 and the USA stops them, and tensions rise. Germany could reassess Operation Plan Three, and actually consider and prepare for an attack on the USA. Propaganda can make the USA out to be an enemy of Germany. The Venezuela Crisis could serve as an actual casus belli a few years later, and make Great Britain more sympathetic to the German cause, enough to not intervene.

As per your last point, I completely agree. Heads are going to roll in Germany, and Wilhelm II is definitely going to go. Does anybody know what Wilhelm III is like? Will he be a better leader in WWI? The Constitutional reform is also a possibility, but I still think that the tensions that lead to WWI were to entrenched to stop by this point.
 
To answer the second question first: He was the CiC and thus had the power to order the military into action but in order to keep it in action one needs what? Money, tons of it and that was under the Reichstag´s control. The strongest party in said Reichstag was the SPD with 27%.

Hmm, the official US history of that war states that there were German and French and British flotillas off Manila and alleges all of them wanted the PI for themselfs. I´m also sceptical the Germans would have pressed the issue. They did not once Dewey called their bluff and there was another tense situation at Samoa, which was IIRC the result of two hot-head CO out of reach of their governments. And last but not least I can´t see the German military let alone the people support a war with the USA over some third world real estate with little value. The whole "colony-thing" was not uncontroversial overe here.


Just saw your reply. You raise good points about funding the military, but I believe that tensions over colonies could actually lead to warfare. While colonies may not have been uncontroversial, the Kaiser can still portray the USA as the instigator of the war by firing on German ships of the Venezuelan coast, which did almost happen IOTL. Once the USA starts the war, I think that most Germans will back it, especially if there is prior tension between them. As I said above, I do think the unprovoked surprise attack on the USA won't happen, but that doesn't mean war between them is ASB. And once the war starts, I could see an idiotic Kaiser thinking Plan Three could work.
 
After reading this thread, I've realized that the unprovoked surpise attack scenario is pretty much a dud.

Indeed.
I mean, if Germany actually moves to annex the Philippines in 1898 and the USA stops them, and tensions rise. Germany could reassess Operation Plan Three, and actually consider and prepare for an attack on the USA.

Well, one can always rely on complete German political idiocy in the period between 1890 and 1945. A revised Operational Plan Three would be modified radically to bear any semblance to a functioning plan, though. Others have expressed their ideas earlier in this thread.

Propaganda can make the USA out to be an enemy of Germany.

I agree, but I wouldn't over-estimate the German ability to manifacture such sentiments in a short period of time.

Does anybody know what Wilhelm III is like? Will he be a better leader in WWI?

My impression of the Crown Prince is that it would be more of the same in a way. Wilhelm III would have Pan-German leanings, be Pro-Military and quite Right-Wing politically.<br>
I cannot say what his actual policies would have been like when he has to deal with the realities of Government - and, however, he would have been quite a young monarch, turning 18 in 1900, that means even younger than his impulsive father was in 1888.

but I still think that the tensions that lead to WWI were to entrenched to stop by this point.

Well, yes, a Great War is most probable. But the butterflies of a German/American-confrontation would be immense. The Great War might break out earlier or be delayed, even alliances might shift until then.

The United States might be dragged onto the global stage a decade earlier...
 
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