Bguy wrote:
Well as to each vacancy:
When Frank Murphy dies, Dewey will be under a lot of pressure to appoint a Catholic to replace him One possibility there is former Connecticut senator, John Danaher. Danaher was the first Catholic Republican senator and a Dewey ally IOTL (he had been the Dewey camp's candidate to head up the RNC in 1946).
While there'd be 'pressure' to do so his replacement OTL wasn't and the general understanding as I get it was 'first available' opening so I'm not so sure this would be how it works. I suspect Danaher will have to wait for Rutledge, as this is one 'deal' Dewey would have to move on. Dewey may have an opportunity to catch Hoover by "surprise" so that he has less time to 'prepare' his successor which will give Dewey a chance to influence the replacement. If Hoover delays then Dewey might either threaten to or actually call the deal off, real or not Hoover will have to jump and it will establish who's actually in 'charge' here which will stand Dewey well in the future.
When Wiley Rutledge dies, this is presumably when Hoover gets appointed.
See above and here's where I see Dewey actually getting on with 'agenda' of appointments.
When Fred Vinson dies, Hoover presumably gets promoted to Chief Justice
What exactly is the criteria for Chief Justice because I'm not sure it would be what either Hoover, (may be too high profile) or Dewey would want. Hoover is going to be a divisive rather than uniting figure no matter what and the Chief Justice is supposed to reflect that compromise and reconciliation attitude. He's really going to be a 'dissenter' on just about everything that he feels does not reflect his personal goals.
Depending on who you believe Hoovers 'main' motivation was to secure a position from which he could not be 'removed' by political whim or age and from which he could either continue to control and expand the FBI powers and/or use a Court seat to reverse the 'diminution' and limitations on the Justice Department and FBI that he felt severely limited 'his' (and by extension the afore mentioned agencies) ability to find, arrest, prosecute and convict people whom he considered to have 'dangerous' political opinions. (This didn't 'boil over' OTL till around 1956 when he organized COINTELPRO to covertly go after such people)
You have to wonder though since having a seat on the Court will definitely ensure the former as a single member his power to do anything about the latter is questionable at best. If this all comes about as suggested I don't see him actually working very hard within the Court and spending most of his time simply 'shadow managing' the FBI through his chosen successor Clyde Tolson.
and maybe John Sherman Cooper gets nominated to fill the vacancy on the court. (Cooper was a liberal from Kentucky and had prior judicial experience which hits a lot of boxes that Dewey will want to check off, though he might be a little too much of a maverick for Dewey's comfort.)
Granted the let 40s/early50s RNC wasn't our present one but wouldn't they lean towards loading the bases while they can? That's what I got the impression Truman did despite claiming he wanted a 'balanced' court.
And when Robert Jackson dies, that is presumably when John Marshall Harlan gets appointed.
Ok but how does this balance not only the court, (of does Dewey and company really care?) and especially balance Hoover?
Of course Dewey would almost certainly be willing to appoint Herbert Brownell in any of these slots should Brownell ever express an interest in being on the court. (Though IOTL Brownell didn't seem that interested in serving on the Supreme Court.)
Draft him?
The most immediate and important impact of Hoover on the court is how it effects TTL's equivalent to the Brown case. Hoover is a likely vote to uphold segregation, and if Hoover votes for segregation there is a good chance that Stanley Reed does as well. (IOTL it took a lot of persuading from Chief Justice Warren to convince Reed to join the majority opinion on Brown. No Warren on the court and without having to be the lone vote for separate but equal and Reed probably goes the other way.) The Brown opinion itself might be much more aggressive ITTL as well. IOTL the court accepted gradual integration ("with all deliberate speed") so as to insure a unanimous opinion. ITTL it will be clear that a unanimous opinion is impossible, so the progressive block on the court might decide to go all out and just order an immediate end to segregation. (Though if they do that they risk losing the votes of Felix Frankfurter and Robert Jackson, both of whom were deeply uncomfortable with the idea of court overreaching on Brown.) At any rate with Black, Douglas, Burton, Danaher, and Cooper there should still be a majority to strike down segregation, but the South may be even more emboldened than IOTL in how they resist desegregation if they have a dissenting opinion or two to rally around.
Hoover saw everything through the lens of "Communist" or "anti-American" activity. In every aspect he cared little about "justice" or "crime" and considered the FBI's main "job" to be political. He wanted it to become a vastly more powerful version of the earlier "Alien Enemy Bureau" with the interpretation of "Enemy" being anyone (alien or American) who opinions he deemed a 'danger' to the United States.
His main issue with Civil Rights was simply that in general it embraced "thoughts and opinions" of a similar nature to Communism and was therefore ripe territory for subversion and infiltration and thereby a danger to the US. He's going to be trying to move the court in the direction of more Federal oversight and control in the ability to pursue and remove "dangerous" elements in society, (political not criminal) by any means necessary so I don't see him voting in favor of very many of the post 1949 decisions either for Civil Rights or limitation of Federal reach.
In Brown I'd agree he will probably vote to uphold and Reed with him but I don't think it will be as smooth as that given the personalities and attitudes of those involved. To put it mildly Hoover is going to rub EVERYONE the wrong way and Reed isn't going to get along with him and his views on Federal oversight and reach. It's not likely but possible Reed may in fact 'go with the majority' anyway BECAUSE of Hoover rather than the other way around. He may still write a dissent but I suspect he may not, given the knowledge of how it would be used post-case. (And I suspect that Hoover will write an "opinion" no matter if it's official or not

) I doubt the overall opinion will be much more aggressive though I suspect that Hoover will be of the "opinion" that anything the Court decides should allow more power and intervention by the FBI.
Assuming Tolson takes over and is not literally a Hoover sock-puppet then relations actually might be a bit better with the filtering. As is we can assume that Dewey will appoint someone to be Deputy Director that isn't a Hoover fanatic.
(And I just realized he's going to be serving with the man he claimed in 1919 as the "most dangerous man n the United States" Felix Frankfurter! Wow the fireworks here are going to be epic!)
I really see Hoover, despite his best efforts, as being a minimal figure in the Court. His real 'mission' is to "protect" America from "Un-American" things which makes me think wonder how he could use the position to enhance McCarthy if he wanted to? Speaking of...
The Red Monday cases may not even happen if President Dewey succeeds in shutting down McCarthyism before it really gets going. If some sort of major domestic security case does still happen, Hoover will definitely vote in favor of upholding domestic security legislation but will inevitably get outvoted. (Even Justice Harlan will side with the court's liberal block on this issue, so Hoover might well end up a lone dissenter.)
If the OTL cases don't come out I'm pretty sure he would have Tolson and whatever TTL's version of COINTELPRO try and use the situation to pursue such 'radicals' as they can and keep both Congress and HUAC informed. I don't see not having Hoover at the actual helm of the FBI changing much:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyism#J._Edgar_Hoover_and_the_FBI
And again any time he 'dissents' he'll likely spam "friendly" media with his "unofficial/official" opinion. As the above article notes, "McCarthyism would probably be called Hooverism" had we know what we know since the 70s. In fact I begin to get the picture from some of the open sources, (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venona_project,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Edgar_Hoover#Concealed_espionage_discoveries, amongst others) that Hoover may have very well been responsible indirectly if not directly in providing McCarthy with his information and egging him on...
Beyond that there's no real way to predict how the Hoover Court will rule on subsequent major cases without knowing who succeeds President Dewey. (Since the new president will presumably get to replace Harold Burton, Stanley Reed, and (if they win a second term) Felix Frankfurter.) Hoover can be expected to usually vote conservative. Cooper will probably usually vote liberal. I'm not sure about Danaher, though he had a reputation for being conservative on criminal justice issues.
Which btw is another 'good question' as under the circumstances I don't see Eisenhower entering politics TTL. Would the GOP go for Dewey's last VP to 'carry on' or someone else and if so who? I'm wondering if Nixon will even get a shot under the circumstances as he wasn't really a figure until he became VP.
Hoover presumably is no more willing to leave the court ITTL than he was to leave the FBI IOTL, so he will be Chief Justice until 1972, and Danaher and Cooper would also have long terms on the court. (IOTL Danaher received a federal appellate judgeship and did not assume senior status until 1969 and didn't retire completely until 1980, and Cooper remained active in public life all the way to 1981 and didn't retire from the practice of law until 1989.)
Pretty much unless his dual-jobbing gets in the way or he's forced out, which recall is the reason he wanted this job so I don't see that happening
Randy