Effects of a American victory in the war of 1812?

Well first off let's be realistic about Kingston's defenders. Only 600 are regulars and the rest are militia of dubious quality. Not only is the US force 3x larger but there's a much higher proportion of regulars there to boot

Well remember, these same militia handed the Americans their heads at Chateauguay, Crysler's Farm, Queenston Heights and Lundy's Lane to name the most famous. The militia formed the backbone of most of these battles, and the regulars in 1813 were definitely not comparable to their European counterparts.

That's in the open field. Against entrenchments the contest isn't likely to be fair.

You do raise a good point about Dearborn. My preferred POD would be him dying in January 1813 and Pike taking over. Under Pike camp conditions are improved as is discipline, thus in 1813 you have a much stronger American fleet/army attacking Kingston. I think that's quite doable.

Killing Dearborn is a great start. The conditions of the American army and the overall efficiency would sky rocket most likely. The only remaining problem would be Chauncey and whether he would risk decisive battle or hold back a bit, which could make or break the land battle.
 
Well remember, these same militia handed the Americans their heads at Chateauguay, Crysler's Farm, Queenston Heights and Lundy's Lane to name the most famous. The militia formed the backbone of most of these battles, and the regulars in 1813 were definitely not comparable to their European counterparts.

That's in the open field. Against entrenchments the contest isn't likely to be fair.

I'm pretty sure the British Regulars played a more important role in all of those battles.

Killing Dearborn is a great start. The conditions of the American army and the overall efficiency would sky rocket most likely. The only remaining problem would be Chauncey and whether he would risk decisive battle or hold back a bit, which could make or break the land battle.

I'd wager that Pike + Armstrong would get Chauncey to move. Also, keep in mind that any attack on Kingston would likely occur earlier than OTL and would likewise catch the British by surprise as they felt that the Lake was not yet suitable for operations of the sort.
 
I'm pretty sure the British Regulars played a more important role in all of those battles.

I'm afraid not. At all of the mentioned battles Canadians made up at least 30% of the force with the exception of Chateauguay where they made up 100% of the 'British' force which drove off the American expedition against Montreal.

This article here contains a useful chart (Figure 1) detailing the militia commitment (absent Native warriors) in all the battles of the war. It wasn't until 1814 with the arrival of large forces of regulars that the militia contingents dropped below 40% on average.

I'd wager that Pike + Armstrong would get Chauncey to move. Also, keep in mind that any attack on Kingston would likely occur earlier than OTL and would likewise catch the British by surprise as they felt that the Lake was not yet suitable for operations of the sort.

Perhaps, but would Chauncey fully commit or hang back to preserve his fleet? Ever the question with him. He can't be expected to fight to the death like Perry.

Also the attack against Kingston can't take place until at least after OTL's battle of York. The ice at Sackett's Harbor and Kingston wouldn't likely fully break up until then, and the waters would still be hazardous for wooden sailing ships until early May. That means you can't hope to launch a major amphibious undertaking of this sort until May most likely.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Define "total American victory"....

How would a total American victory have on the nations of the world? How much of canda would America take all of it or just most of it? Could this possibly lead to a earlier end of slavety in America or a earlier civil war?


Define "total American victory"....

What is your desired end state?

Best,
 
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