Effects If China Did Not Fall to the Communists?

What would be the effects if the Nationalists had won the Chinese Civil War? I don't mean just on China but on the geopolitics of the Cold War and internal US politics. Would McCarthyism have been as strong without the "fall of China" and could Harry Truman have been reelected in 1952 (there'd be no Korean War obviously).
 
What is your timeline for this?

1. Stronger Sino-German cooperation in the 20's and 30's that leads to a National Revolutionary Army (NRA) that can defeat the Imperial Japanese Army (IJN)?

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2. Imperial Japan does not sign the Tripartite Pact with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy?

3. The Kuomintang sign the Tripartite Pact with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, instead of Japan?
 
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You don't have to go that far back. The POD could be having the US just keep pumping aid to the Nationalists after WWII and have the Kuomintang not squander it all. Maybe even have the US send in forces to back up the Nationalists in the crucial postwar phase of the civil war.
 
Ok. It is possible, that Manchuria, East Turkestan and Chinese part of Mongolia will be occupied by Soviet Army, if Stalin see posibility of communist china losing this war.
If Korean war begins, there wont be one million of Chineese "volunteers" but soviet soldiers can "volunteer" for North Korea - not only pilots
 
What is your timeline for this?

1. Stronger Sino-German cooperation in the 20's and 30's that leads to a National Revolutionary Army (NRA) that can defeat the Imperial Japanese Army (IJN)?

2. Imperial Japan does not sign the Tripartite Pact with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy?

3. The Kuomintang sign the Tripartite Pact with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, instead of Japan?

If Nationalist China sides with the Axis in WWII, communists will probably be the least of their problems.

COULD China align itself with Germany without entering any sort of official alliance? Maybe like Spain and Portugal? Then they'd get aid and advisors from Germany, which would definitely strengthen their position and help them against both the communists and the Japanese.

But this would butterfly a lot in WWII, without a German-Japanese alliance. Would Japan wage as large of a war as it did OTL without being buddy-buddy with Germany? Or would it restrict itself to just the USA? Would Germany even bother declaring war on the USA TTL?

What would be the effects if the Nationalists had won the Chinese Civil War? I don't mean just on China but on the geopolitics of the Cold War and internal US politics. Would McCarthyism have been as strong without the "fall of China" and could Harry Truman have been reelected in 1952 (there'd be no Korean War obviously).

EDIT: There'd be a Korean War, just not as OTL. The state of China had nothing to do with the Soviets occupying North Korea and having no intention of allowing it to unify with the South.
 
But this would butterfly a lot in WWII, without a German-Japanese alliance. Would Japan wage as large of a war as it did OTL without being buddy-buddy with Germany? Or would it restrict itself to just the USA? Would Germany even bother declaring war on the USA TTL?
With China siding with Germany, would Japan and the US even end up as enemies? With a German-allied China would it be possible for Russia and Japan to be allies (Japan wants an empire, and Russia doesn't want Fascist powers at both ends of the country). Or course, with a much bigger enemy on its Eastern side, Russia might well keep troops in the east that OTL were deployed against Hitler, thus either allowing the Germans to push on Moscow.
 
Fascist China

I agree - it would be interresting to see a highly militarised Fascist China as a POD for this timeline.

Afterall, the collectivism of Chinese culture would equally lend its self to fascism as it has to communism.
 
With China siding with Germany, would Japan and the US even end up as enemies? With a German-allied China would it be possible for Russia and Japan to be allies (Japan wants an empire, and Russia doesn't want Fascist powers at both ends of the country). Or course, with a much bigger enemy on its Eastern side, Russia might well keep troops in the east that OTL were deployed against Hitler, thus either allowing the Germans to push on Moscow.

Why wouldn't the Japan and the US end up as enemies? I was under the impression that the US and Japan hated each other for reasons completely unrelated to Europe.

In some round about way we might even see the US supporting the Germans. We certainly liked the Chinese more than the Japanese before 1945. Look at all the support we gave them. Even if the Chinese turn fascist and aligned with the Germans, I doubt we're going to ally with the Japanese any time soon.

I mean, sure, FDR REALLY wanted to get into the war in Europe, but if he's not given a good excuse he won't be able to.

So we might see something like this:

Germany, Italy, China and assorted allies VS Britain, France, Russia and assorted allies.

Germany, Italy, China and assorted allies VS Japan

USA VS Japan

An interesting scenario, if you ask me.
 
Why wouldn't the Japan and the US end up as enemies? I was under the impression that the US and Japan hated each other for reasons completely unrelated to Europe.
The US cut off trade with Japan after it invaded French Indochina, but with a Japan/Russia alliance, there's going to be no invasion of French Indochina, and thus, no reason for trade to stop.

In some round about way we might even see the US supporting the Germans. We certainly liked the Chinese more than the Japanese before 1945.
Well duh, you were at war with the Japanese before 1945, and before that didn't think much either way.

Look at all the support we gave them.
What, a couple of fighter squadrons and a trade embargo against the Japanese?

Even if the Chinese turn fascist and aligned with the Germans, I doubt we're going to ally with the Japanese any time soon.
A German-Allied RoC would be a much bigger threat than Japan ever managed to be, enemy-of-my-enemy and all that.
 
With China siding with Germany, would Japan and the US even end up as enemies? With a German-allied China would it be possible for Russia and Japan to be allies (Japan wants an empire, and Russia doesn't want Fascist powers at both ends of the country). Or course, with a much bigger enemy on its Eastern side, Russia might well keep troops in the east that OTL were deployed against Hitler, thus either allowing the Germans to push on Moscow.

1. Japan is not the sort of nation Stalin is going to throw in his lot with if he dislikes a right-wing, anti-communist regime on his borders.

2. Japan still needs resources, Germany can only indirectly affect various events in China (even with German military advisers... the Chinese are still going to be in a sorry shape compared to Japan, they still need the modern industry and armaments that Germany alone will not be able to provide in significant quantities).

3. The US and Japan will still hate each other, Japan's only possible methods of obtaining resources from China and the Dutch East Indies both involve stepping on America's toes. And then there comes the Philippines, has resources Japan can use, and leaving it alone means that it's a knife pointed right at the heart of the Japanese Empire, attacking the Philippines will lead to war with the United States, this is a rock-and-a-hard-place situation.

4. China is not in a position to go to war with the Soviet Union, in the 20's it would be retarded to alienate a major ally, by the 30's Germany will probably focus more on Europe than on Asia. Any reasonably pragmatic Chinese leader will favor at worst, tense co-existence with the Soviet Union.
 
I doubt that. Japan had a huge navy but China was divided and unlikely to be able to project its strength anytime soon.

Precisely, a more powerful China will be one focused on internal affairs and consolidating itself as a nation before turning itself towards international power politics. Even a lucky, more prosperous China than OTL is still a basket case swamped with issues.
 
I doubt that. Japan had a huge navy but China was divided and unlikely to be able to project its strength anytime soon.
Only to the US, to Russia OTOH.

1. Japan is not the sort of nation Stalin is going to throw in his lot with if he dislikes a right-wing, anti-communist regime on his borders.
Less of two evils. Churchill and Stalin weren't what you'd call friends either, but they sided together against Hitler.

2. Japan still needs resources, Germany can only indirectly affect various events in China (even with German military advisers... the Chinese are still going to be in a sorry shape compared to Japan, they still need the modern industry and armaments that Germany alone will not be able to provide in significant quantities).
If China goes fascist I'm sure Stalin will be happy to provide some resources.

3. The US and Japan will still hate each other, Japan's only possible methods of obtaining resources from China and the Dutch East Indies both involve stepping on America's toes. And then there comes the Philippines, has resources Japan can use, and leaving it alone means that it's a knife pointed right at the heart of the Japanese Empire, attacking the Philippines will lead to war with the United States, this is a rock-and-a-hard-place situation.
If Japan is getting resources from Russia they won't need to expand in the Pacific.

4. China is not in a position to go to war with the Soviet Union, in the 20's it would be retarded to alienate a major ally, by the 30's Germany will probably focus more on Europe than on Asia. Any reasonably pragmatic Chinese leader will favor at worst, tense co-existence with the Soviet Union.
Stalin won't like the RoC for knocking off Mao, so the enmity won't be China's fault.

Of course, that's all assuming it's the Fascists that back up the ROC, if it's Britain or the US then things are dramatically different.
 
Only to the US, to Russia OTOH.

Less of two evils. Churchill and Stalin weren't what you'd call friends either, but they sided together against Hitler.

If China goes fascist I'm sure Stalin will be happy to provide some resources.

If Japan is getting resources from Russia they won't need to expand in the Pacific.

Stalin won't like the RoC for knocking off Mao, so the enmity won't be China's fault.

Of course, that's all assuming it's the Fascists that back up the ROC, if it's Britain or the US then things are dramatically different.

1. No... this is not the same situation as it was with Nazi Germany, Stalin will stand back and let the two go into conflict, letting Japan expand INTO Asia is not Soviet policy, Stalin made mistakes but that sort of policy is just going full-retard.

2. Some MAYBE, but certainly not fulfilling all of Japan's resource needs. It also contradicts Japan's desired policy of being completely self-sufficient for resources, subservience to the Soviet Union will NOT be something the OTL leadership accepts, and that is one decision they would be intelligent to avoid.

3. The Japanese desire to be an autarchy, if by some Sinowank twist of fate China is too bristly of a target for Japan to take on, the Pacific will look MORE tempting not the other way around.

4. This does not change the fact that China will still largely stand to LOSE a war against the Soviet Union and will not start one.
 
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