Effective ways to prevent Old World diseases from killing so many Native Americans ?

[Petike]

Of course the American indigenous population was decimated by diseases that had no experience with. It happened to the Faroe islanders when they were exposed to measles. It even happened to rural Americans when exposed to diseases like measles for the first time in civil war camps. When plague returned to Europe in 1361 it targeted those born after the initial plague wave. It has nothing to do with genetics. Any inexperienced population or section of a population without previous exposure will suffer disproportionately when exposed to a new disease. Any time and any where.

Yeah, that is unfortunately true. While you can inherit good immunity, it will only ever be for illnesses that your native population/group has past experience with. A totally new illness will be far more dangerous, given the complete lack of immunity in the history of the population.

I remember I once had a minor allergic reaction to a wasp's sting, but never afterward on the rare occassion a wasp stung me again. You just need to develop immunity towards certain diseases or natural biochemistry based injuries. An individual's body needs some prior experience.

Another possible way is for the Viking expositions to survive and spread their genes and immunities through the Tribes.

I have severe doubts about that. The Scandinavians didn't mingle with the natives in OTL due to there being little need for that. There's a reason the few confirmed settlements were only part time and stuck to the coast. All the fantasies about OTL Scandinavians venturing deep into North America and planning colonisation en masse are rather silly.

I've seen some timelines try to come up with compelling reasons for why Scandinavians would use the North American coastline for more than just seasonal resource gathering, with appropriate seasonal accomodation. Some good timelines, some highly iffy timelines. That's the key issue there. Enough people coming over, founding sedentary communities. Iceland was easy-peasy, "no one here but us birds and polar foxes". Greenland detto, the Greenlandic Inuit branch of the Thule culture apparently arrived there even later than the Scandinavians, which is amusing. So Iceland and Greenland and the aforementioned Faroe Islands make a lot of sense for colonisation, harsh weather and harsh nature aside. No natives to squabble and deal with. One of the older Vinland-based timelines, Empty America, had no native cultures in America, so the Scandis staying was a no-brainer (though that TL does have issues, being from the older days of the fandom). Others had groups of Norse and other settlers banished for good, and they decided to settle over there because they ran out of other good options. The idea of "Vikings" colonising North America for the lulz, and the same with the Chinese under Zheng He's leadership, is anachronistic. It ascribes them views and goals that were more typical of early modern Europe, during the "Age of Discovery", whereas the goals of these two groups were a little different. Even accounting for Scandinavian colonisation of the North Atlantic, they wanted to play it safe with that one, and only settle a land that wouldn't be a nightmare to defend from local natives or outside raiders.

There's also the issues of having unfortunate misunderstandings with the natives, which prevented any sort of allying for the sake of trade, let alone buddying up and intermarrying. The misunderstanding apparently included giving the natives cheese as a gift and sign of good will, and the annoyed natives then returning with a vengeance, after some of them received food poisoning due to lacktose intolerance (which nobody could have known about at the time).

Maybe intermarrying and extended contact between Scandinavians and Native Americans would help the latter in the long run when it comes to diseases, maybe not. There are too many if-s and preconditions necessary to make that sort of highly optimistic leap.

 

[Pesterfield]

Is it possible to get more regular contact across the Bering Strait, and get regular spread of old world diseases that way?

 

[Lusitania]

Is it possible to get more regular contact across the Bering Strait, and get regular spread of old world diseases that way?

Overland would require geological changes. That would impact Americas greatly since we would have continuous migration patterns coming from Siberia including potential introduction of horses and such. Too big of a POD to contemplate here. As for sea contact we could have either Chinese or Japanese ships sailing to North America but that would bring their own diseases and changes.

 

[Petike]

Is it possible to get more regular contact across the Bering Strait, and get regular spread of old world diseases that way?

If you keep Beringia in place, that requires ASB intervention. With a Beringia in place, ocean currents will be quite different and the possible sea routes into and out of the Arctic ocean, for creatures and human explorers alike, will differ accordingly. Otherwise, the only contact over the strait will be by boat and fairly irregular.

Both the Asian and American side of the Bering strait are rather sparsely populated and don't have overly regular contact with the rest of their respective continents. So I don't see how more traffic over the strait would automatically mean more disease. If the Chinese or Japanese started settling Kamchatka en masse or something similarly far-fetched, maybe. Otherwise, the possibility is low. I know for a fact that the northeast Siberian tribes had trade links to as far south as China and Manchuria, given the occassional presence of metal tools, metal weapons and metal armour (mail) in their equipment. But even those links weren't some "let's make a regular shopping trip" shenanigans. By the time they received goods manufactured in much more southern latitudes of Asia, those goods had passed through many different hands.

Overland would require geological changes. That would impact Americas greatly since we would have continuous migration patterns coming from Siberia including potential introduction of horses and such. Too big of a POD to contemplate here. As for sea contact we could have either Chinese or Japanese ships sailing to North America but that would bring their own diseases and changes.

The continuing back-and-forth animal and plant migrations alone would create a fair amount of changes. Not as extensive as when South America reconnected with North America in the later Tertiary, but still influential.

 

[Legofan4]

Overland would require geological changes. That would impact Americas greatly since we would have continuous migration patterns coming from Siberia including potential introduction of horses and such. Too big of a POD to contemplate here. As for sea contact we could have either Chinese or Japanese ships sailing to North America but that would bring their own diseases and changes.

Also why would the Chinese or the Japanese want to sail east across the Pacific in the first place. Japan was always focus on China and the West and China was generally focused on itself and it immediate surroundings.

 

[Arkenfolm]

And there is literally no evidence of lack of immunity as David S. Jones's article "Virgin Soils Revisited" shows other than a misreading of Spanish sources and taking at face value hyperbolical statements of whole areas being literally desolated of natives. There was mass death, for sure, but this was a far more gradual process due to warfare, intensive labour, displacement and segregation, the process in Latin America and the Caribbean lasting several decades (about 150 years in fact) and the process in North America being even more gradual due to how the European advance was far slower there.

Both historical accounts and the archaeological record of the post-Mississippian period in the Midwest/parts of the Southeast (Kentucky, Tennessee) disagree. De Soto's crew did not depopulate the parts he traveled through, not directly. Expeditions in the mid-late 16th century did not depopulate the region either, not directly. Yet the evidence shows villages and towns abandoned, forests regrowing, and a once-thriving region basically depopulated.

Also why would the Chinese or the Japanese want to sail east across the Pacific in the first place. Japan was always focus on China and the West and China was generally focused on itself and it immediate surroundings.

Different Japan? It isn't inevitable that Japan falls into endless periods of instability and war like it did after the Heian period. And even if it does, it isn't inevitable that some groups of Japanese don't end up grabbing Hokkaido (and using it as a place to distribute land to nobles and others while subduing the natives), and from there doing the same in Sakhalin, the Kurils, etc. which might lead them to the New World eventually, somehow.

Some East Asian castaways almost certainly arrived in the Pacific Northwest, since there's accounts of Japanese boats being found throughout the 19th century, as well as evidence of American Indians like the Tlingit scavenging shipwrecks of those castaways for interesting goods. There's reason to believe this had been happening for centuries. I suspect there's genetic evidence to be found (although all evidence of Asian-West Coast Indian admixture might have died in the epidemics or through murder by Euroamericans), much as we've found evidence of Polynesian admixture in one group of Amazonian Indians.

 

[Lusitania]

Both historical accounts and the archaeological record of the post-Mississippian period in the Midwest/parts of the Southeast (Kentucky, Tennessee) disagree. De Soto's crew did not depopulate the parts he traveled through, not directly. Expeditions in the mid-late 16th century did not depopulate the region either, not directly. Yet the evidence shows villages and towns abandoned, forests regrowing, and a once-thriving region basically depopulated.



Different Japan? It isn't inevitable that Japan falls into endless periods of instability and war like it did after the Heian period. And even if it does, it isn't inevitable that some groups of Japanese don't end up grabbing Hokkaido (and using it as a place to distribute land to nobles and others while subduing the natives), and from there doing the same in Sakhalin, the Kurils, etc. which might lead them to the New World eventually, somehow.

Some East Asian castaways almost certainly arrived in the Pacific Northwest, since there's accounts of Japanese boats being found throughout the 19th century, as well as evidence of American Indians like the Tlingit scavenging shipwrecks of those castaways for interesting goods. There's reason to believe this had been happening for centuries. I suspect there's genetic evidence to be found (although all evidence of Asian-West Coast Indian admixture might have died in the epidemics or through murder by Euroamericans), much as we've found evidence of Polynesian admixture in one group of Amazonian Indians.

Exactly we are talking about the possibility of continued Asian-American contact which is already Alt hist. So to accomplish this we need either of both China and Japan to establish regular contact. The biggest issue is that wind and sailing technology would allow for ships to sail along Alaskan and British Columbia coast but would be a problem returning since the easiest way is to sail straight across the Pacific from America to Asia.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Exactly we are talking about the possibility of continued Asian-American contact which is already Alt hist. So to accomplish this we need either of both China and Japan to establish regular contact. The biggest issue is that wind and sailing technology would allow for ships to sail along Alaskan and British Columbia coast but would be a problem returning since the easiest way is to sail straight across the Pacific from America to Asia.

Which is true, hence why no castaways ever returned and its highly unlikely they would. The Atlantic is perhaps a bit more forgiving than the North Pacific. On the other hand, the North Pacific Gyre does exist, and the Spanish used it quite well OTL. This would require much better ship-building than East Asia had OTL, with ships capable of long distances on the open seas with all the provisions they need. But looking at the map of currents, Japan might have a specific advantage as the subpolar gyre around Alaska and Kamchatka would allow a relatively easy return to the Home Islands than the longer distance North Pacific Gyre.

 

[Petike]

Any other ideas about possible prevention, whether against small or large groups of disease carriers ?

 

[Lusitania]

Any other ideas about possible prevention, whether against small or large groups of disease carriers ?

The problem was that any earlier contact would of caused massive damage and deaths. Then while the natives are recovering the Europeans arrive in 15th century with a new batch of diseases and even new strains of old diseases. Double whammy we could of seen total destruction of whole tribes due to disease, famine, war and nature.

 

[Tripledot]

Wouldn't the single best way to prevent deaths due to diseases like smallpox be mass inoculation? Never mind immunity built up after centuries (more like several millennia), actual prevention would save more lives and grant native states some measure of stability with which to adapt to and counter European threats.

 

[Barry Bull]

Any other ideas about possible prevention, whether against small or large groups of disease carriers ?

You may be interested in this post which discuss the latest academic discourses on the transmissions and impact of European diseases in North America:
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistori...onday_mysteries_disease_and_medicine/cgmphuh/

Currently, the academic debate has shifted from generalizing the impact of infectious disease on an entire continent, to a focus on the forces acting in each region. There is just one problem: outside of Mexico, mission communities in New Mexico and Florida, and thin, isolated strips of territory along the Mississippi River and Atlantic seaboard, we don't know how infectious diseases were impacting the bulk of the inhabitants of North America in the interior of the continent. We have some, albeit sketchy, demographic data for the populations near European settlements, but what was going on beyond the frontier?

You may also consider seeking assiatance in this subreddit which is frequent by real experts and maintain a higher standard of answering than AH.com.

 

[Umbral]

Although not always old world diseases, local hemorragic fever played a big role in Mexico during the 16th century.

Not to revisit discussions we have had before, but in my semi professional opinion there is absolutely no way that was not a European disease. A fairly good example of a virgin field epidemic.

 

[Lusitania]

Not to revisit discussions we have had before, but in my semi professional opinion there is absolutely no way that was not a European disease. A fairly good example of a virgin field epidemic.

Hi there, all that was needed was someone who was carrying a disease to visit the interior. As I stated before documented visits of interior tribes described complex societies and countries comprising of half a hundred villages and towns. These same societies when visited a century later were reduced to half a dozen of villages. Gone was the complex and advanced societies that existed there.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

If they had the Miasma theory, this might have accidentally saved them from many of the diseases, although I think smallpox still spreads. The Jesuits could introduce the idea... wait didn't the diseases spread faster than the Europeans? Ok, nevermind, Europeans can't save the natives even if they wanted to

 

[Lusitania]

If they had the Miasma theory, this might have accidentally saved them from many of the diseases, although I think smallpox still spreads. The Jesuits could introduce the idea... wait didn't the diseases spread faster than the Europeans? Ok, nevermind, Europeans can't save the natives even if they wanted to

As you demonstrated the Europeans had no idea how diseases were spread till the end of 18th and into 19th century. Act of god was as good of an explanation as they could answer.

 

[Petike]

As you demonstrated the Europeans had no idea how diseases were spread till the end of 18th and into 19th century. Act of god was as good of an explanation as they could answer.

This will be a tough cookie to crack in the story I'm already writing.

Do you think either natives or Europeans could inadvertently come up with the idea of quarantine, moving away from any infected parts of the population, to protect themselves ?

 

[DominusNovus]

Just to take this in an alternate direction, but what if medical technology advanced quicker in the Old World? By the time they discover the New World, you have both a healthier population, with far fewer diseases to spread, and more knowledge on how to treat said diseases.

 

[Philip]

Do you think either natives or Europeans could inadvertently come up with the idea of quarantine, moving away from any infected parts of the population, to protect themselves ?

Europeans had been using quarantine in one form or another at least since the Black Death. It's effectiveness is not 100%.

Keep in mind than diseases like measles and smallpox are contagious for a couple of days before the rash appears. There's a good chance that someone in the fleeing group will be infected and not know it.

 

[Philip]

Just to take this in an alternate direction, but what if medical technology advanced quicker in the Old World?

Sounds simple enough, but how do you implement it? How do you get the resources not only across the Atlantic but also across the continents fast enough to be effective? Even today, WHO would be hard pressed to handle a widespread outbreak of smallpox in a under developed country. I don't see how an early modern European state could do it.

By the time they discover the New World, you have both a healthier population, with far fewer diseases to spread, and more knowledge on how to treat said diseases.

Even with modern medicine, treatment for measles and smallpox is primarily supportive -- assisting the person to survive the symptoms while their immune system fights the cause. The American Natives' immune systems have no experience with these diseases (or even similar ones). It's not clear that any amount of supportive care could prevent a massive number of deaths.