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Hi Folks,

I'm working on a scenario / TL where the League of Nations was actually effective - and I'd appreciate feedback from you guys, both on the "realism" of the TL and whether there is anything "cooler" to throw in. Here's a rough rundown of what I am thinking of:

- POD: Britain fails to intercept Zimmerman telegram. Mexico still rejects the proposal.
- US Entry into the war is delayed by ~6 months, but the US send "volunteers" and several detachments of the AEF and the Marines and loan a few warships to Britain; Woodrow Wilson finally convinces Congress of the necessity to go to war when several US ships are sunk due to Germany's unrestricted submarine warfare
- After the East Front collapses and frees up German troops, the German Empire is able to slowly push into France; the reinforcements from the US and the colonies (Australia, Canada) are just barely enough to stop Germany from outright victory; but on the other hand the entente powers lack sufficient manpower to mount effective counterattacks.
- Discontent in all European countries involved in the war; the German Kaiser and Military are seen as incompetent as they can not seem to win the war; the French citizens are demoralized due to the shelling of Paris and fear time will run out; they want an armistice before the Germans break through the defenses for good. Food riots.
- Spanish Flu hits as in our time line, just much more fiercely. It decimates the soldiers in the trenches and reduces Europes industrial capability. Hostilities break down for lack of soldiers. Morale reaches a new low. France, Germany and several other nations are on the brink of civil war.
- The Americans take the opportunity and mediate a peace in Europe. Woodrow Wilson pushes the League of Nation through. The political landscape changes in several countries, especially the monarchies: War-weary citizens demand greater rights. They receive them, as the governments are generally afraid of full-scale communist revolutions similar to what happened in Russia.
- The peace treaty: Most of Russia's territorial losses become newly independent countries. Germany gives up most (not all) of the territory it occupied (it lacks the strength and will to actually hold on to the territory, the Americans being the strongest military force in Europe after the plague ran its course). The peace treaty avoids the question of who is to blame for the war, and no nation is required to pay reparations.

Situation after the war:
- Most large nations unchanged. Thinking of breaking up Austria-Hungary (revolution?). Germany becomes a republic, the Kaiser is a figurehead similar to the British monarchs in the late 20th century in OTL.
- New nations in the east: Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, Ukraine
- Thinking Flandres may become an independent nation - not sure if this is realistic, but reasons/ways could be found

The League:
- Strengthened by the war-weariness of the general population, most think the institution is a good idea if it prevents future wars
- Gets tasked with enforcing the rule of international laws and order by all means necessary
- Establishes an international court of justice
- Outlaws chemical and biological warfare
- English, French, German are official languages - doesn't push for the use of Esperanto
- USA does ratify the treaty. League Council permanent members are: UK, France, Germany, Japan, United States. Russia is permitted membership, but denied a seat on the council.
- With the backing of the most powerful nations on Earth, the League is much more capable than in our time line. Japan's and the Americans' influence helps to limit the other members' desire to use the League as a tool to maintain their colonial empires; but the later is still a main point of criticism.

Manchuria
- Japan attempts to strengthen its political and economic position with an invasion of China in 1937. European nations fear for their East Asian holdings. Reports of Japanese atrocities finally give them the casus beli.
- League imposes sanctions, but they prove ineffective to stop the Japanese
- Eventually, the League council agrees to military intervention - under the League's "authority". As there is no system in place of who has to commit what to the intervention, mobilization is slow.
- European powers support Chinese on the ground, but provide sea and air forces. japan is defeated. China becomes a unified nation.
- Sets precedent for military interventions by the League.

WW2 & Hitler
- Hitler never rose to power. There is no WW2.

Russia
- For many years, Russia campaigns - of course unsuccessfully - for the return of territories lost in the great war
- In the late 40s or early 50s, the Russian leader ("Stalin") decides to use the massive Russian army to solve the issue by force; invades Eastern Europe.
- Russia is beaten after 1-2 years by the combined military might of western Europe

Comments
Okay, that was a very rough overview. I haven't worked out a lot of details; I'd want the TL to run into the 70s or so at least. At that point things deviate so much that you can drive the TL pretty much anywhere.

Some remarks:

This is clearly a multipolar world; UK, France, Germany, USA, Russia are the big powers. Japan, China, and maybe Brazil are close on their heels.

One important thing to note might be that there's no nukes, and thus no cold war. I am unsure if anybody would actually build nukes without WW2; it takes a lot of money to do so. If one nation actually does develop them a new war may be inevitable; however, in my personal opinion strong international communities tend to lower the risk of hostilities among the members (see the EU).

Without the threat of nuclear armageddon, it stands to reason that wars with direct involvement of the "big powers" - even on opposite sides - are more common. The League may help to prevent escalation of these wars to Europe, and so proxy / colonial wars may be fairly acceptable.

Decolonization would still occur, for the usual reasons.

Japan never got nuked. It did get soundly defeated, but it's still an Empire. Prevented from building its own colonial hegemony in East Asia, Japan still begins to focus on trade and technology, similar to Our Timeline. Imagine a high tech Japan with a large military - it is not unreasonable to expect another large war in the pacific several decades later, maybe the 80s or 90s. In fact, Japan could be this timeline's Third Reich style terror regime when it attempts to conquer China once more.

The league isn't quite a world government, but it's got more "teeth" than the UN because there are no veto nations that wield the nukestick at the rest of the world. Any powerful nation can always be defeated if enough of the smaller nations gang up on it, and the League is the means for that gang-building.

Communism would likely be an outsider ideology in this timeline; most of Eastern Europe is independent from Russia. East Asia, rather than Europe, may be the main battleground against communism. In the war against Japan, the Europeans may unwittingly help the creation of a communist regime in China, or they may actually manage to help the ROC win over the communists; I haven't decided. The ROC option seems more plausible, however, especially since the European nations may be attempting to get China under their thumb again.

The Space Race would still occur, the war with Russia may be what drives rocketry in this TL (there were some promising designs by Russian engineers, which IIRC were suppressed by the communists). When it begins, it's again a game with multiple players, and space would be militarized. I imagine Apollo/Gemini/Soyuz-type craft armed with artillery and maybe missiles, combat space stations and so on.

Anyway, sorry for the long post. Any feedback would be appreciated. :)


- Nils
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