Effect on WW1 if Austria and Hungary only had personal union?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

Assuming that by the 20th century Austria and Hungary were separate states united only by sharing the same monarch and having an alliance, how does that impact WW1 if something like it were to even occur? I imagine Hungary would get Bosnia on its own and the Habsburg monarch would reside in Vienna, but trans- and cis-liethenia would have their same borders. They'd have their own armies and funding policies, languages, and governance, but have a permanent alliance. Could WW1 even start in that situation and then would the two states be more prepared for war if so? How if at all would it change the alliance with Germany?

austrohungarianempire1.jpg
 
First thought of me, is that Germany has probably looked for some other allie to balance the situation. That could well be Russia as the powerful drive of Balkan rivalry could be gone. Because both Austria and Hungary allone Imo are not strong enough.

On the other hand, if Germany is desparate to search for a friend, then the Anglo German relations may also be better... balance of the continent and all.


On the flip side, if Germany is strong enough to frighten France, while not having a ally, and France has Russia in the bag, so to speak, could we see a war instigated by them?
 
Hungary was never very eager to take Bosnia so, assuming a pre-1878 PoD, Austria/Hungary would likely dodge that particular bullet.
 
Should be in pre 1900 section.

I assume the "best" POD would be that Ferdinand clings to the throne and allows Hungary become Independent.

BUT I can see a possible post 1900 POD. We all know Franz Ferdinand HATES the Hungarians. LEts assume at some Point He and Franz Josef have a big quarrel about this and FJ is so fed up with his heir that he decides to SPLIT his empire into a Personal Union and names Karl as heir (and vice-king) to "Hungary".

Say this happens somewhat around 1908 - Bosnia is annexed to one of the two Nations (probably Hungary) - a possibility is also a trade between the two parts Dalmatia goes to Hungary while the Burgenland and North Western (?) Slovakia goes to Cisleithania (to round out the two parts)

Would "Hungary" give up the Sandjak of Novi Pazar (?), Would Hungary intervene in the Balkan Wars (?) - Relations between Austria and Russia might become better - The System of Alliances might even shift (a bit)...
 

raharris1973

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Funny trivia on Emperor Ferdinand after his 1848 abdication, which worked as a play on words in German:

In Austria, Ferdinand was ridiculed as "Gütinand der Fertige" (Goodinand the Finished).

I assume the "best" POD would be that Ferdinand clings to the throne and allows Hungary become Independent.

In this scenario I would see Hungarian foreign policy as being one of non-expansion (in Europe, and probably globally) and a focus on keeping internal coherence. A policy of solidarity with and nonaggression against the Ottoman Empire would fit into that scheme-


BUT I can see a possible post 1900 POD. We all know Franz Ferdinand HATES the Hungarians. LEts assume at some Point He and Franz Josef have a big quarrel about this and FJ is so fed up with his heir that he decides to SPLIT his empire into a Personal Union and names Karl as heir (and vice-king) to "Hungary".

Say this happens somewhat around 1908 - Bosnia is annexed to one of the two Nations (probably Hungary) - a possibility is also a trade between the two parts Dalmatia goes to Hungary while the Burgenland and North Western (?) Slovakia goes to Cisleithania (to round out the two parts)

Would "Hungary" give up the Sandjak of Novi Pazar (?), Would Hungary intervene in the Balkan Wars (?) - Relations between Austria and Russia might become better - The System of Alliances might even shift (a bit)...

I wonder what would happen. The Hungarian Diet and Karl and the Hungarian Royal (not Imperial) Army would have to think hard if it wants to annex ethnically Slavic territory or give up Novi Pazar. Perhaps Budapest would decide that a negotiated continuation of the status quo in Bosnia and friendliness to the Ottoman Empire should continue. As a knock-on, the Balkan states might not feel secure enough to start the Balkan wars.
 
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