What if the Iraq War never happened, or Blair decided not to join early on? How strong and long-lived could New Labour get? How long would Blair last? My prediction is Blair beats Howard in 2005 but with a 120-seat majority. Then in 2009 he retires just as the financial crisis hits, Brown takes the reins and in a 2009/2010 election Labour wins a tiny majority or gets a plurality in a hung parliament. What do you think would be the effects? What if?