Effect on the LW if the RAF does better in BoB

Just wondering what consequences there might be for the Luftwaffe if the RAF in the Battle of Britain achieve a Victory.
Rather than perhaps the perception that it was a 'draw' - with the Luftwaffe unable to gain superiority for Sealion, but still inflicted serious damage.
But instead, the RAF was able to maintain high kill ratios 2.5:1 being the lowest, with the LW only able to achieve parity on a few days!

It took in OTL, the suicide of Udet to change things, would a discernable falure rather a lack of success have an earlier effect!??
 
Just wondering what consequences there might be for the Luftwaffe if the RAF in the Battle of Britain achieve a Victory.
Rather than perhaps the perception that it was a 'draw' - with the Luftwaffe unable to gain superiority for Sealion, but still inflicted serious damage.
But instead, the RAF was able to maintain high kill ratios 2.5:1 being the lowest, with the LW only able to achieve parity on a few days!

It took in OTL, the suicide of Udet to change things, would a discernable falure rather a lack of success have an earlier effect!??

IT would depend on several variables...
How soon the defeat was realized.
How bad the exchange rate was.

In a Whale has Wings by Astrodragon the Germans are going up against Hurricanse and Spits with cannons and .50 machine guns. This led to a very quick end of any attempt at Sealion (by mid August) due to very high losses among the Bombers and Fighters (kill rates in the 3.5:1 ratio due to the heavier armament and a more capable Hurricane/ Spits).
 
It's going to have a few knock-ons at least.

One, it's likely there have been more casualties in the instructors, which obviously impacts future effectiveness.

Two, it reduces the number of aircraft & crews for operations in Russia.

Three, related to that, it reduces the numbers available for suppressing Malta.

Four, related to 2) & 3), it reduces Luftwaffe flexibility.

IDK how big the changes would be; that depends at least some on the scale of losses over the OTL number. Double or triple, it could mean cancelling (frex) Malta ops entire, for lack of a/c.
 
As others have said it depends on how quickly the Germans realise things are going rather wrong and whether they decide to chance it and keep pressing forward or not. At the end of the day all the Luftwaffe has to do to stop losing pilots is cancel their operations, if the RAF are killing more of them then they might simply call things off earlier than in our timeline so things effectively balance out. Goring though might not want to admit defeat and attendant loss of face in front of Hitler and internal Nazi politics however he also wouldn't want to see his Luftwaffe ripped to shreds so it's six of one and half a dozen of the other.
 
The most likely effect is to end the BoB early (there would still be a follow-on phase of light raids); since SeaLion was something the KM were fervently hoping would vanish, it likely gets canned earlier, and night bombing would start. The effect on Britain wouldnt be much different (fewer accurate daytime raids, more inaccurate night ones) over the autumn/winter, but the British would have less fear of invasion (its pretty obvious that if the LW cant stand the daylight then stopping the RN light craft becomes somewhat probematical...:p).

I allowed them to realise this and release the escorts sooner (easier without Pound in charge too :), so much less of a happy time over the winter. But very little short term changes, really. The RAF would have to have some way of truly hurting the LW, which is possible but normally means either earlier jet fighters (more difficult than it seems, the alloys are a problem), or more and more capable fighters (again an issue, but some changes are possible). You're looking at an early 30's POD though.
 

Pangur

Donor
I will have a stab at this; Assuming that the LW put 2 and 2 together correctly they realize the importance of radar and not just as land based. They push for making it smaller, a lot smaller. Not just to get into aircraft but on u-boats as well. They may even consider a primitive AWAC
 
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