Effect on Argentianian victory in the Falkand's war on Britain's Global Standing?

While some say Thatcher would go, it's quite feasible the opposite would happen.
The public back lash should this occur - I hate to think what the Sun's headline would be, would leave the door open - for rearmament. That is 'blame' those who would weaken us, the Treasury, Nott, and the Labour Party.
Just as the US would say 'remember the Alamo', or 'remember Pearl Harbor' so the British would remember the Falklands.

Britain, would either go for round two, (I'm sure I've read about the US loaning a carrier), or accepting the situation go for repatriation of the Islanders - some go to Scotland, some to New Zealand. And then, cuts all ties with Argentina - no trade, no British Bank loans, and campaigns for the EU to do likewise.

Later, replacement ships, are named with associations to the conflict - 'we will never forget'.
 
It's not ASB to imagine something like six ships being lost, including one carrier, and twenty or so heavily damaged. Historically AShMs have a hit rate of about one in three, so Argentina actually did well on that score; more missiles and sorting out the bomb fuse/launch parameter issue* will help them there.

I think the best bet for Argentina is that they achieve that, and force the RN away to lick its' wounds. Planning continues apace for a second Task Force to be sent later in 1982 with ILLUSTRIOUS, BULWARK and others. The TEZ is left in place and Argentine shipping/air transport to the Falklands interdicted.

However, there's a loss of confidence in Thatcher's government. It's argued that the Nott cuts to the Navy made the invasion. Labour points at the way they defended the islands in 1977. There's a vote of no confidence in the government, leading to a snap election over the summer which Labour win.

Yes, there's plenty of strong talk about the Falklands. But the new Labour government antagonises the US with a watered-down version of the OTL 'longest suicide note in history', leading to weakened US military support. The offensive planned for the (southern hemisphere) spring is put on hold whilst negotiations are reopened, and a shared sovereignty agreement is reached.

Britain's international standing is weakened. They're seen as a spent force, incapable of fighting off a South American military dictatorship. Americans tell the kind of jokes about the British that they told about the French after 2001. To Soviet eyes, NATO seems to be falling apart as the British have elected a neutralist, pro-disarmament government. They're emboldened - it won't turn the tide of the Cold War, but it'll do something.

With three or four years of Labour rule, the British economy will be further weakened. Cherished, obsolete industries, like the deep coal mines, will be kept going for longer. The influence of trade unions on industrial policy will be unabated. GLCM deployment will be cancelled, the Holy Loch base closed, and the British Polaris replacement delayed through studies and inquiries to the point where it's become uneconomic. In 1985 or 1986, the unpopular Labour government will be kicked out and a Conservative government under some 'wet' leader will be brought in, tasked with repairing the damage of the last 15 or 20 years. The 'special relationship' will no longer be so special. A turn to Europe seems likely, this will be a more internationalist Britain.

Labour's lurch to the right in the 1990s won't happen - there'll probably be a step away from the hardliners towards the centre, but the idea that they're just Red Tories won't take root. The absence of Thatcher's industrial policy and probably the so-called Poll Tax will weaken (though not eliminate) anti-Union sentiment in Scotland - I use the term deliberately, the genuine nationalists won't go away but the 'f*** the English' faction will have less to be angry about. Britain will overall be more left-wing, poorer, less inclined to adventurism, closer to Europe and further from America.

Argentina, meanwhile, now has a bunch of sheep-filled rocks in the South Atlantic, a military dictatorship, and a population which is still deeply unhappy. Someone in Buenos Aires will realise that they don't know what to do now that they've got their own way....

* The problem wasn't just with the bomb fuses. Their pilots also kept dropping bombs outside the parameters where they would have worked even if they were fused correctly.
 
Argentina, meanwhile, now has a bunch of sheep-filled rocks in the South Atlantic, a military dictatorship, and a population which is still deeply unhappy. Someone in Buenos Aires will realise that they don't know what to do now that they've got their own way....
Victory or not, the Argentine economy is still in the toilet. The power of distraction can only get the Junta so far.

More repression and a further distraction to follow. Beagle Channel revisited anyone? Then I guess the wheels really start to come off at that point :D
 
Top