In response to a US intervention in Panama, Chile sent the cruiser, the
Esmeralda, to Panama in order to pressure the Americans into withdrawing. The US had deployed 3 ships, the
Tennessee, the
Galena, the
Shenandoah, with more on the way, and several hundred marines. All three of these ships were wooden and poorly equipped. This was done with the intention of protecting US interests and nationals from fighting between the Colombian government and rebels. Chile feared US expansion into Latin America but by the time the
Esmeralda arrived, the situation had died down and it was clear that the Americans did not intend an extended occupation.
But what if the fighting remained intense by the time the
Esmeralda arrived and it appeared that the US intended a long occupation of at least parts of Panama. By all accounts the
Esmeralda was far superior to the three US ships stationed, all of which were wooden and poorly equipped by comparison. The
Esmeralda would have come into contact with the
Shenandoah off of the coast of Panama City, and should the Americans refused to withdraw leading to the two ships firing upon each other, the
Esmeralda most certainly would have sunk the
Shenandoah.
At the time naval experts acknowledged that Chile had the strongest navy of all the nations in the Americas. Let's say that an ensuing war between Chile and the US goes somewhat along these lines:
- The Galena and the Tennessee withdraw from Panama
- Congress declares war on Chile
- The bulk of the US Pacific fleet is destroyed by the Chilean Navy
- Chile commences bombardment of Los Angelas.
- With threat of other west-coast cities facing bombardment and unable to challenge Chile in the Pacific for some time, Grover Cleveland sues for peace.
- US acknowledges Chilean influence in Colombia, and by extension South America, and faces a national humiliation.
- The War lasts from April 28th 1885, the arrival of the Esmeralda, and ends in the latter half of 1886.
So the question here is what happens next? Cleveland will most certainly lose the next election though he does in the OTL, but there probably won't be a comeback this time. Does the US become more militaristic in this timeline? How does this change the Chilean Civil War? Can the Monroe Doctrine still survive? How long until the US and Chile fight another war? What else?