Assuming that the Seljuks do not fall apart (lets say, no battle of Qatwan), how does this effect Egypt and Syria?

Let me explain why I'm asking:

The Zengids, previously regional rulers within the Seljuk empire, sent an army into Egypt, the leader of this army, Nur Ad-Din took over Egypt, and after his death gave it to his nephew Saladin, establishing the Ayyubid empire, which, obviously is pretty important.

My main question is who would be in charge of Egypt? Would it be the Vizier Shawar (who de facto ruled Egypt prior to the invasion)? His rise to power was connected to the decline of the Seljuks though, so maybe not. Would it be another provincial governor/general who is given the title of vizier? Would an ethnic minority take control?

  • Which region is most likely to produce the next leader?
  • How would this affect Egypt's cultural and scientific development? how would the governing style be different? I know the Ayyubids were big sponsors of science, but not huge on art, and were quite militaristic.
  • Would the crusader incursion into Egypt have a different level of success (do better or fail even more miserably)?
  • Would this different leader take longer to recentralize Egypt's government? How would their conquests be different from those of the Ayyubids (I can probably glean some of this from what region the new leaders originally ruled)?
  • How would Egypt and Syria interact with the Mongols? Would it be any different from OTL?
 
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