Effect of No Nazi Germany on Austria

Given that OTL's Austrian Civil War was over in 5 days I think it's safe to say that any later Austrian civil war would still be less destructive than the area bombing of Vienna.
As long as it isn't a proxy war between fascist Italy, Weimar Germany, Hapsburg supporters, and Communists. I did list an issue with distrust and necessary healing with factions, possible satellite status, an ongoing depression with protectionism limiting economic opportunities, a slight chance at guerilla war, poor economics due to a Communist state, a fascist state, NO MARSHALL AID...it COULD be worse.
 
Assuming the fascists stay in power in italy they could prop Austria up

Yes, but I gave the 1970s as a date because it was when most of the proto fascists states fell, like the portuguese Estado Novo ('74), the Francoist regime in Spain ('75), argably Peronist argentina, depending of your views on him ('74), and the Kuomitang who kept Taiwan under martial law all the way until 1986.
 
Most likely the austrofascism collapses in the 1970s, and become a small party like modern day falange in Spain.

Spain was not as radically corporatist as Austria was. Austria was also not a dictatorship of one man with a weak party structure. Drawing parrellels between the collapse of Francoism and a potential collapse of Fascist regimes in a TL where they aren't part of the Axis is one if my pet peeves.
 

Anchises

Banned
If Germany survives as Weimar the ideas that caused the "Wirtschaftswunder" IOTL will probably still take hold in a slightly changed form.

So Germany is going to become much wealthier than Fascist Austria. At some point (70s is MUCH too late), the economic pull of Germany will topple Austrofascism. Germany+Austria reunite and become a democratic Großdeutschland.
 
The Anschluss was popular, the monarchy was not. If there's no ww2 and Holocaust it stays popular as it would not be associated with war, concentration camps, rail wagons filled with starving people etc. If the dictatorship really screws up you might get an East German style collapse of the state and popular revolution and demand to be annexed to Germany.
 
Everyone here seems to assume that the "Selbstausschaltung des Parlaments" still happens.

Okay, let's break this down. Dollfuß became Chancellor in May 1932.
The NSDAP under Hitler OTL wins the election in July 32 with some 37 odd percent.
In November another election happens in Germany, leaving the NSDAP with 33 odd percent.
Hitler then becomes Chancellor in January 33, and the German reorganization starts. Hindenburg then dies in August, leaving Hitler as Chancellor-President, or simply Führer.
Meanwhile in March 33 the Selbstausschltung happens.

Since the PoD states that Hitler does not come into power in 1932, I'll assume they did slightly worse in the 32 elections. That in turn means that with slightly more votes for the center and right wing parties, leading to some right mess. Probably a minority centre-right government with NSDAP tolerance. Considering such a government the fringe will continue to gain support - both NSDAP and Communists.

Then March happens. The Austrian railway workers, assumed to be socialists to the last man, strike once again. A vote is called on their demands. There is no relative stable right wing coalition that agitates for Austria to join Germany in Germany. Would all the right wing/german nationalists vote for the railway workers demands? With the intention to cause a crisis?
For the matter, there were 165 members of parliament since the 1930 election. 164 voted that day. If one more is missing or the missing one turns up?

Also: There might be an election called during that time. The Austrian government was in (constant) crisis and without the NSDAP winning in Germany there might be less fear among the CS to lose votes to them in an Austrian election.

Still, knowing the parties at the time: Christian-Socialists weren't democrats. Ideologically they wanted a "Stände" system, a return to a medieval balance, modernized. Some hereditary votes, some to the church and the rest to the population voted among the ones of the same vocation.
Neither was the SPÖ democratic. They very much were socialists, they weren't all that beholden to Moscow, but they were left enough that no communist party arose in numbers.
Among the remains? German nationalists, right wing nationalists, even the odd monarchist in irrelevant small numbers (aside from coalitions) - and certainly not democrats.

Faced with the chance of losing power (or gaining it for the matter), sooner or later someone was going to do something. It could be the relative bloodless coup of the CS - without Hitler and his NSDAP stirring in the background even the short civil war might not happen. It could however be a socialist uprising as well. Likely to not end well for them, but it could happen.

Without outsiders meddling I can't see a drawn out civil war however. And unless Germany goes Red I doubt that the socialists can get that much support into land locked Austria. Unlike the right wing, with Mussolini right on the border.

So yes, a right wing dictatorship is a likely possibility. How that ends is a different question. Without the Nazis in power in Germany a NSDAP putsch killing Dollfuß is less likely. I can't really tell how he would have ruled long term.

If you however consider OTL: under Schuschnigg they had already planed the first "vocational branches" to vote in summer 1938, a vote that never happened due to the Anschluss. It might end up a weird kind of partial democracy. No universal vote, a party structure in the background as "king maker" on the Ministerial and Chancellor posts, and relative free, but ultimately limited votes among vocational lines, ensuring CS domination.
Something that might grow more open or closed, depending on what happens in the wider world. Because preventing Hitler from taking power will cause very large butterflies.
 
Yes, but I gave the 1970s as a date because it was when most of the proto fascists states fell, like the portuguese Estado Novo ('74), the Francoist regime in Spain ('75), argably Peronist argentina, depending of your views on him ('74), and the Kuomitang who kept Taiwan under martial law all the way until 1986.

But what happened in the 70's in OTL was critically shaped by its historical context, and that context required World War II, the Pax Americana, and the Cold War. Not having a WW2 butterflies a lot of things away, and makes it harder to predict how long these regimes could endure, I think.
 
Since the PoD states that Hitler does not come into power in 1932, I'll assume they did slightly worse in the 32 elections.
If you want to know:
Hindenburg declares in early February 1932 that he is definitely not running for re-election as Reichprasident, leading to Hugo Eckener, with SPD and Zentrum support, declaring his candidacy not long after, and subsequently defeating Hitler in the runoff election. The July 1932 parliamentary elections don't happen, but are held off for a few months, while Groener is given free reign to crack down on the brownshirts and communist militias. Long story short, the Nazis, as such, fall apart as a functioning party, and don't come to power.
 

Anchises

Banned
If you want to know:
Hindenburg declares in early February 1932 that he is definitely not running for re-election as Reichprasident, leading to Hugo Eckener, with SPD and Zentrum support, declaring his candidacy not long after, and subsequently defeating Hitler in the runoff election. The July 1932 parliamentary elections don't happen, but are held off for a few months, while Groener is given free reign to crack down on the brownshirts and communist militias. Long story short, the Nazis, as such, fall apart as a functioning party, and don't come to power.

With that POD Austro-Fascism will die quick. The fascist-authoritarian approach will hamper economic growth and quality of live. With Germany as a "shining example" Pangermanism and resistance to the regime will quickly become one issue.
 
As long as it isn't a proxy war between fascist Italy, Weimar Germany, Hapsburg supporters, and Communists. I did list an issue with distrust and necessary healing with factions, possible satellite status, an ongoing depression with protectionism limiting economic opportunities, a slight chance at guerilla war, poor economics due to a Communist state, a fascist state, NO MARSHALL AID...it COULD be worse.
Ok, an absolute worst case scenario could do a lot of damage, but none of that strikes me as particularly likely.
 
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