Effect of nationalist China on the Cold War

more or less what the can says, I have two scenarios

1. total KMT victory, the CCP is broken all of China is under KMT control, Mao and a small group of followers is forced into exile in the USSR never to be seen or heard from again

2. KMT never goes north, most of China stays under the KMT, but Manchuria becomes a Communist state under Mao and propped up by the USSR, its a crazy North Korea/Khmer Rouge like state

so looking at these scenarios I'd like you guys to think on a few things, A) how does this change the cold war, with out Communist China how do things change in the Korean War, or France's Indochina war, would their still be a Vietnam War? if so what does that look like B) what path does the Republic of China take? a lot of people think of Nationalist China going down the same path as OTL Taiwan (KMT rule till the mid-1980s than democracy) is this right or wrong? what becomes of Tibet in these time lines? would China stay a US ally or try to do its own thing?
 
I read a "what if" history book recently and option 2 was briefly examined although no mention of the cold war. Funnily enough the book was called "what if".
The book says that if the KMT won and left Manchuria. It would've had a East Germany/West Germany effect as China opens up immediately and develops sooner leaving Manchuria a near third world state. Bit optimistic in my opinion. But that is for another day.
Personally I reckon CKS would've done the same as they did in OTL. They would've had played both against each other and tried not to annoy the other too much.
 
With Vietnam, a whole host of butterflies start to play out. The Viet Minh receives less direct aid. Southern China is no longer a safe haven for Vietnamese guerilla fighters. The Soviet Union might be able to drop in a few advisors, trucks and guns, but on a large scale I doubt that would occur. Although I don't doubt there would be an independence movement in Indochina, I doubt it would be led by the Communists. The French could be there until well into the Sixties.

could we see Uncle Ho go Nationalist trying to get Chinese and/or American aid/support? while I have no doubts that Hồ Chí Minh was a true Communist he was clearly Vietnamese first, last and always, early on he reached out to the US but got a cold shoulder, with no Communist China he might keep trying for US help, also what does a long drawn out war in Indochina do to the French, does a lack of Viet Minh success butterfly away Algerian Rebels?
 
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