Effect of Iraqi NFZ incident on 1996 election?

What's the biggest butterfly that can happen if a long-feared escalation of the Iraqi no-fly zones happens soon before the 1996 election?

Whether by Saddam ordering a riskier posture to inflict an election-time defeat or just by coincidence, the Iraqi military succeeds in downing an American fighter, and the crew of the fighter is killed, and just to have the worst case scenario, the attempted CSAR is a botch that has several additional casualties with nothing to show for it.

I still highly doubt it would change the presidential outcome, but what would it affect?
 
You get the Iraqi Liberation Act signed by Congress and the President two years early and an extensive bombing campaign. It probably hurts Clinton slightly in the general as over 70% of the public supported a ground invasion to topple Saddam after the plot against George HW Bush and Clinton's military response to that event was viewed by the public as too tepid.

If Saddam kicks out the weapons inspectors on time in 1998 you probably get a ground war then. If he kicks them out here then you could conceivably get a ground war after the election and before Monicagate occurs which just might erase Monicagate from occuring.

No Zarqawi and no solid plans from the RG to wage an insurgency so you would have problems post war, but nothing akin to 2003-2006.
 
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