Effect of Hashemite Jordan as the Palestinian State

The title is a bit misleading.

Palestinian identity until ~1967 was fairly fluid. Generic Arab? Uniquely Palestinian? Southern Syrian? National identity can be fluid. Most locals in the West Bank were fairly content with Jordanian rule between 1948 and 1967 as well, which makes sense considering national identity wasn't all that solidified.

So my question is, what if Jordan (including the West Bank) were to have proclaimed itself the representative state of the Palestinian people, complete with right of return for refugees?
 
Hashemite dynasty gets couped harder during black September and Arafat and his ilk fail to make Jordan as successful as it has been. Soviets get another satellite state in the region and very little changes. Unless the dynasty holds on then the Palestinians will continue to have the revolutionary hangover political issue, if the dynasty does hold on then there might just be a real peace process.
 
There was also an alleged April 1957 military coup in Jordan by Ali Abu Nuwar (the Army chief of staff) who was going to use Palestinian-dominated military units to overthrow the Hashemites. Abu Nawar was planning to keep the Bedouin military units in the desert for training without ammunition to render it useless to King Hussein.

But I agree with GSpectre, the only way is if the Hashemite dynasty gets couped and couped hard.
 
It would interesting to see Palestinian Jordan's relations with Syria, given the latter would technically see the former as a part of Southern Syria.

The question is would they fight against Syria (meaning a pro-western faction in Palestinian Jordan would potentially receive backing to prevent it becoming aligned with the Soviets) or would Syria try to capitalize on any instability in Palestinian Jordan to take over the latter like they did in OTL Lebanon (a la an analogue of Black September and the Lebanese Civil War)?
 
This might make it easier for Israel to go with the idea of annexing the West Bank or parts of it, since it wouldn't be the case that doing so renders the people in the area stateless. Palestinians in the West Bank (assuming the 1967 War happens as OTL) will have a state to flee too. It would also potentially have knock on effects for all the Palestinian refugees in Syria and Lebanon and could butterfly away some of the events that happened in Lebanon from the 1950s to 1990s as Lebanon could in fact send Palestinian refugees to Palestinian Jordan.
 
Palestinian identity until ~1967 was fairly fluid. Generic Arab? Uniquely Palestinian? Southern Syrian? National identity can be fluid. Most locals in the West Bank were fairly content with Jordanian rule between 1948 and 1967 as well, which makes sense considering national identity wasn't all that solidified.
They were content when their land wasn't in danger of being stolen. That's the bare minimum a government can provide, and it's enough for most people.

So my question is, what if Jordan (including the West Bank) were to have proclaimed itself the representative state of the Palestinian people, complete with right of return for refugees?
It wouldn't be a 'right of return', it would be a safe haven. Palestinians would still be living in diaspora.

The main effect would be that Israel expels Palestinians from any territory they conquer in any wars that take place, they'd be the majority of refugees who went to Jordan, the other refugee populations would gradually move there over time. There would still be a demand for the actual right of return, but now it would be some fraction of ~12m Palestinians, most of whom would live in Jordan. There is no way Israel is going to allow Jordan to develop economically to the point where they could support Palestinians returning to Palestine, so that relationship would still be hostile. And the native Jordanians would still be trying to regain power and influence, so the country would be unstable even without further Israeli influence.

On the other hand, with the country mostly free of non-Jews, and with settlers moving into mostly empty land, there would be less sectarian violence inside Israel. And it's possible that the UN could set themselves up in Jordan to keep that border from being violated.


If Israel takes Gaza in this timeline, that's going to be one hell of a march to Jordan.
 
Or Egypt.

I'm definitely surprised that Israel didn't expel way more Palestinians after 1967, especially from the Gaza strip. I would hate to imagine what would happen.
They went beyond not expelling them. Moshe Dayan sent paratroopers to keep people from fleeing.

The Israelis weren't expecting to directly annex most of the territories they seized. The Allon Plan, for example, involved Israel principally annexing less-inhabited areas along with East Jerusalem and Gush Etzion. The remaining territory in the West Bank was either to be returned to Jordan or made into a Palestinian State in Confederation with Israel.

Arabs in lands Israel wanted to annex were to be made Israeli citizens. Gaza was initially seen as a territory to be annexed to Israel, but Allon later changed his mind and thought that Gaza ought to be part of a Jordanian-Palestinian State.

The most expansive conception of the Allon Plan was Dayan's, in which the Israelis would go so far as to annex Bethlehem and Ramallah and give all the Arabs in those areas Israeli citizenship.
 
They went beyond not expelling them. Moshe Dayan sent paratroopers to keep people from fleeing.

The Israelis weren't expecting to directly annex most of the territories they seized. The Allon Plan, for example, involved Israel principally annexing less-inhabited areas along with East Jerusalem and Gush Etzion. The remaining territory in the West Bank was either to be returned to Jordan or made into a Palestinian State in Confederation with Israel.

Arabs in lands Israel wanted to annex were to be made Israeli citizens. Gaza was initially seen as a territory to be annexed to Israel, but Allon later changed his mind and thought that Gaza ought to be part of a Jordanian-Palestinian State.

The most expansive conception of the Allon Plan was Dayan's, in which the Israelis would go so far as to annex Bethlehem and Ramallah and give all the Arabs in those areas Israeli citizenship.
But then again there were those who obviously wanted them out and wanted to take those lands in the first place.
 

kernals12

Banned
This would be a lot better than leaving millions of Palestinians in refugee camps for eternity awaiting a return that will never happen.
 
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