Effect of Denmark gaining Gotland in Scanian War

Denmark occupied the Island of Gotland in the Scanian War after having lost Gotland in 1645, regaining it was never a war goal. But at the end of the war Denmark occupied it plus Bremen-Verden and post-1721 Swedish Pommerania and the Duchy of Gottorp. The French forced the Danes to leave it, but France did throw the Danes a bone by recognise future Danish claims to Schleswig-Gottorp. So what if the French for some reason had decided to throw a slightly bigger bone to the Danes by letting the Swedes lose Gotland. Maybe the Swedish diplomats overplay their cards, so the French decides to teach them a lesson.

(warning I'm making a butterfly genocide)

The island are absolute not on the wish list of Denmark, but at least it makes it a symbolic victory of Denmark. The Swedes likely want it back in future wars, but beside regaining it in the early Great Northern War, Denmark would retake it. The next opportunity will be 1814, but the diplomatic cost-benefits of it, make it really not worth it. Which means that Denmark continue to keep it. It won't be lost in the Schleswigian Wars either.

Denmark was historical ahead of Sweden in agriculture, but the spread of agriculture advances build until 1800 on large estate forcing them down over their tenants. As result the selfowning farmer of Bornholm was backward compared to the tenant farmers of the rest of Denmark. Through still ahead of Scanians. I lean toward the Danish letting them be mostly self owners, but the few large estates will likely result in the spread of agriculture advances and in the 19th century Danish agricultural schools will result in the spread of know how

Population-wise Gotland had a pre-industrial population around half of pre-industrial Iceland, it have around the same size as Funen and a mostly similar climate, but slightly poorer soil. Both Gotland are relative underpopulated with only sligtly over double it pre-industrial population (60.000) compared to Funen which have 470.000 people. This could lean toward Gotland having more people under Danish rule except, Denmark also have several islands following the same patter (Bornholm, Lolland and Falster). But I lean toward the relative isolation of Gotland would lead to far smaller migration outflow to the rest of Denmark. Fundamental the bigger size of Gotland and the greater isolation from the Danish mainland would lead to a migration going to Visby instead of Copenhagen, much as we saw regional midsize cities like Odense and Aalborg keeping a relative high population density.

I doubt we will see a Funen-size population. instead I expect a population of 150-250.000. A interesting question would be whether Danish rule would result in Gotlanders becoming Danes or if we see a local national awakening as we saw in the Faroes Islands. I expect that Gutnish would survive better, but we will likely see aa similar process where it grow nearer Danish. I lean toward the Gotlanders wouldn't have a regional national awakening, as they're less isolated from Denmark than the Faroese are.

If WWII happens as in OTL Gotland will ease the evacuation of refugees and likely rsult in more people being evacuated from the Courland enclave. But afterward it will be likely occupied by USSR[1], it will likelyu be delivered back to Denmark (the reasons for USSR to deliver Bornholm back would also go for Gotland).

Under the Cold War Gotland would be NATO's eastermost outpost in the Baltic.

Denmark would likely also have a closer relationship with Latvia and Estonia as a neighbour (it should be said that the relationship are already close)

[1] there's a small chance that the greater strategic importance of Gotland to Sweden and the bigger population of Gotland would result in some of the Danish Brigade (a Danish refugee military unit in Sweden) being landed in Visby with Swedish support and the Germans surrendering to them before the Soviets could arrive. This could be interesting as a large number of Baltic refugees would not be deported back to USSR in that case.
 
Interesting, hum hum.

Population wise instead of looking at the (insular?) Danish isles. Instead look towards the much more isolated Faroe Islands, The Faroe Island have a population of 49.000 that is over twice the population of the Orkney (21.000) and Shetland (23.000) if though, if I remember correct, the Faroe island having a historical population that was significant smaller than either of the two islands.

I think using the Faroes as an example is probably not a stretch (IMO) especially considering, as you alluded to, a Gutnish awakening for the Island. If I remember correct Denmarks population increased five-fold (might be wrong in this, and it was four-fold instead) then a population of 300.000 is probably not out of the question... Thinking growth here from early 19th century to late 20th century.

Another aspect is I could see a lot of Swedes emigrate to the island, as you mentioned the island was underpopulated so it can definitely absorb this injection of people. While I do think a regional identity would develop I think it would be closer to Bornholm than an actual Faroes one. So Gutnish first then Danish. If we also consider your (heavy) butterflies, with the Baltic refugee population Gutnish identity looking at both the people living on the island, but also its history of changing hands (relative often). Then the identity could easily be considered a melting pot, quite differently than "proper" Danish identity which is so... lacking a better word... not a melting pot... uniform maybe.

Another interesting butterfly, as you also alluded to, is that Denmark is gonna be silly important to nato geographical wise, even more than it historical were. The question is will Nato (USA) be able to reign in Denmark (maybe more American investments) or is Denmark gonna be that unruly / "unwilling" ally that it historical was in the 80'ties.

Geographical regions that Nato will be interested in would be
Greenland
The Straits
Gotland

There are other aspects to your questions, but these are the more interesting ones from my point of view.
 
@Bastiram
The Faroese population increase have been insane, they have gone from 4000 people in 1800 to 50.000 today plus 30.000 first generation emigrants Faroese living in Denmark. I think the Gotlandian population increase would be smaller, but yes 300.000 would be quite possible with half living in Visby. I suspect that after the Great Northern War we won't see the island change hands except for the German and potential Soviet occupation. I also suspect it would part of the Danish national identity. Gutnish would like Bornholmian and South Jutlandic be one of better surviving non standard Danish dialects.

I agree about the influx of Swedish immigrants in the 19th century, we saw that on Bornholm. As for our relationship with NATO, we could get away with our behavior in the 80ties because of our strategic importance. But on the other hand Gotland (or Gulland as it will be called under Danish rule) will also change the Danish elections. Depending on whether Gotland are Blue, Green or Red it can change the post-war elections significant. The East Danish islands have usual been Red.
 
Perhaps if Sweden felt threatened due to being surrounded by Denmark, it could fund the Gutnish project(language, independance, etc).
 
Perhaps if Sweden felt threatened due to being surrounded by Denmark, it could fund the Gutnish project(language, independance, etc).

Unlikely the moment of national awakening was in 19th century, where the Swedish-Danish relationship was the best since Margrethe I. So if would be too late. A Gutnish national awakening would be something which was born on the island without foreign support. But what would be more interesting would the effect a stronger Danish presence in the Baltic would have on the Scandinavians in the Russian Empire, which Denmark was far more friendly toward than Sweden. Maybe the Estonian-Swedes would seek a close relationship with Gotland and as such toward Denmark, the Russians would likely be amicable toward such a reorientation. It could result in the group doing better in Estonia.
 
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