EDSA I: Cheap Compromise

In the 1986 Philippine presidential election, despite all the events of the previous 14 years (and the intractably recessionary economy), Cory Aquino only beat President Marcos by 800,000 votes, or 55-45 according to accredited NGO poll watcher NAMFREL. Let's say that margin is reversed and Marcos allows her running mate, Sen. Salvador Laurel, to be elected VP. Laurel was essentially a political mercenary and could easily be *induced* to join Marcos. With a relatively honest poll and a semblance of a national unity government, Marcos rides out the storm and Laurel tells his supporters to accept defeat gracefully. Now, for the aftermath...

Marcos is dying of lupus and will be dead within 3 years. By this time others are making day-to-day administrative decisions, though final executive authority rests with him. With the burdens of office, Marcos could well kick the can within a year or 18 months. PM Cesar Virata will become President in all but name even before Marcos dies. The military will not allow Imelda to acceed and will likely forcibly exile the family after her husband dies. Enrile, Virata (a relatively nonpartisan technocrat) and Fidel Ramos might run the government and preside over a transition to democracy.

Now, in 1989 or 1990 a transition might well see a reversion to the Third (1946-1972) Republic. Nothing wrong with the 1935 Constitution in itself (IMO superior to the 1987 one) but just excise the provisions that give martial law God-Emperor status. 90 days only, subject to congressional approval for renewal. Sweeping powers like preventive detention are only to be used when under foreign invasion.
 
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