Perhaps this should go in the future history subforum rather than here, since the point of divergence is relatively recent. But I'll leave that for others to decide. Apparently, former Governor Jim Edgar was approached to run for Fitzgerald's Senate seat in 2004, and while he considered it, he rejected the possibility for a combination of personal reasons. Let's say Edgar decides to run. Edgar's popularity and establishment backing probably ensure he wins the Republican nomination. I'm sure it's vaguely possible that Obama might not be the Democratic nominee under such circumstances, but I'm letting him win the nomination for the sake of argument.
Jim Edgar is rather popular as far as former Governors go. He's the last one not to end up in prison. He's no Jack Ryan so he presumably stays in the race.
So, any thoughts on how the race turns out? My guess is that Obama has a much tougher time beating Edgar than he did either Jack Ryan or Keyes. But maybe I'm totally off the mark here.
Does this prevent the Obama keynote address? AFAIK, he was only granted that role after the long period in which he literally had no opponent in the race for the Senate. Obviously that doesn't happen here.
Who's the POTUS under such circumstances?