Economy of a Modern Germany with post-Munich borders

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Deleted member 1487

What would a post-Munich border Germany with no WW2 be capable of economically in the modern day? For the sake of argument let's say Hitler is assassinated after Munich and the resulting power struggle weakens the Nazi regime so that it falls in the 40's after the armaments boom wears off and the economy fails, just as Schacht predicted.
Also the Soviets are still around, as they never invaded anyone without WW2, but have liberalized like modern China.
Decolonization happens later, but later and bloodier.
So what can be expected?
 

Typo

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What happens after the economic collapse?

That is important before we speculate about the current era.
 
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Deleted member 1487

What happens after the economic collapse?

That is important before we speculate about the current era.

Recession coupled with the army forcing out Goering and the Nazis. Schacht returns and rebalances the economy as free elections are reestablished. The Nazi party fizzles with the SPD and centrist parties dominating the election. After the recession fades Europe booms economically in the late 40's -early 50's. Is that enough info?
 

Typo

Banned
Recession coupled with the army forcing out Goering and the Nazis. Schacht returns and rebalances the economy as free elections are reestablished. The Nazi party fizzles with the SPD and centrist parties dominating the election. After the recession fades Europe booms economically in the late 40's -early 50's. Is that enough info?
Then to be honest?

Pretty much the same as today, the old European borders have functionally very little impact on the economies of EU member states, and very little to do if Germany owns Austria or not, but do correct me if I'm wrong. Although there will be much less American companies and American influence in Europe without the war, but the scenerio you have pretty much propose the same general course for European economy.

Unless of course, the war derails European integration entirely, which it will well might.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Recession coupled with the army forcing out Goering and the Nazis. Schacht returns and rebalances the economy as free elections are reestablished. The Nazi party fizzles with the SPD and centrist parties dominating the election. After the recession fades Europe booms economically in the late 40's -early 50's. Is that enough info?

This. There would never be an economic collapse, just a recession when the new government rebalances the economy as the Nazi reckless rearmament spending (which was only really necessary if you planned to do Barbarossa). If the army ousts the Nazis after Munich, it is very likely that we would see a conservative-liberal democratic Kaiserreich restoration. It is quite possible that the Communists never get liberalized again, but unless the most reactionary wing of the army gets its way, the SPD most likely eventually shall. With free elections, the Nazis are going to fizzle to a fringe, with the SPD, CDU, the DVNP, and the liberals dominating the new German party system. The Nazis go in the history books as a weird but ultimately not too harmful temporary aberration and soon largely fade from memory.

Germany and Europe never experience the huge destruction and loss of life of WWII, neither Eastern Germany nor Eastern Europe are subject to Nazi and Soviet abuses and the crappy Communist system. Brandenburg, Saxony, Pomerania, Prussia, Silesia, and Austria remain bound to western Germany and as a result are much more productive in the late 20th century, as do Central and Eastern European nations. With any luck, the Soviet Union remains enough of a credible threat to move France, Benelux, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Hungary, Italy, Spain, and Portugal (the latter three returning to democracy when the dictators die) to establish the EU, which as a result gets rather wealthier than OTL, getting dimensions similar to modern ones several decades earlier.
 
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When decolonization becomes a major global issue-probably rather later, and gathering more slowly-Germany, which doesn't have a colonial empire anymore, will be able to paint itself as the "friend of the dispossessed" in its maneuverings with France and Britain. Remember, all three are going to continue to act the part of global great powers.
 

Typo

Banned
When decolonization becomes a major global issue-probably rather later, and gathering more slowly-Germany, which doesn't have a colonial empire anymore, will be able to paint itself as the "friend of the dispossessed" in its maneuverings with France and Britain. Remember, all three are going to continue to act the part of global great powers.
That depends on if the Germans are interested in competing with France and Britain on a global scale, but if it does it certainly make sense to do so, the Soviets did the same thinga after all.
 

Eurofed

Banned
That depends on if the Germans are interested in competing with France and Britain on a global scale, but if it does it certainly make sense to do so, the Soviets did the same thinga after all.

Also assuming that Germany and the Entente powers remain antagonistic competitors and do not establish EU-like cooperation. It might easily go either way. Regardless of whether it happens or not, the Soviets are still in all likelihood going to play the anticolonial card to try and expand their influence just like OTL. Surprisingly from an OTL PoV, so might the Americans.
 

Typo

Banned
Also assuming that Germany and the Entente powers remain antagonistic competitors and do not establish EU-like cooperation. Regardless of whether it happens or not, the Soviets are still in all likelihood going to play the anticolonial card just like OTL. Surprisingly from an OTL PoV, so might the Americans.
Yes, assuming you avoid WWII of course, the entire decolonization process gets a lot more dangerous with this type of anti-colonialism, since the wrong move might actually trigger a great power war in Europe.

Also, what exactly emerges out of the Nazi regime in term of economics is going to be interesting. OTL it was American style capitalism, it would be interesting, for instance, to see if say something other than Keynesian economics become mainstream. Of course, how exactly does the global economy go without WWII and its aftermath is pretty subjective.

I mean let's say the German economy remains problematic afterwards, if something like the Chicago boys analogue ends up in Germany to "fix" everything, it would be pretty fascinating to watch.
 
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Eurofed

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Yes, assuming you avoid WWII of course, the entire decolonization process gets a lot more dangerous with this type of anti-colonialism, since the wrong move might actually trigger a great power war in Europe.

Also, what exactly emerges out of the Nazi regime in term of economics is going to be interesting. OTL it was American style capitalism, it would be interesting, for instance, to see if say something other than Keynesian economics become mainstream.

I mean let's say the German economy remains problematic afterwards, if something like the Chicago boys analogue ends up in Germany to "fix" everything, it would be pretty fascinating to watch.

Since this PoD does not butterfly away the Great Depression, I'm not sure that anything else but the Keynesian model may become dominant in its shadow.

As it concerns the likelihood of a great power war in Europe (or in the Atlantic), let's remember that the lack of WWII may delay nukes significantly, but eventually someone is going to develop them. You can't keep that genie in the bottle forever.
 

Typo

Banned
Since this PoD does not butterfly away the Great Depression, I'm not sure that anything else but the Keynesian model may become dominant in its shadow.

As it concerns the likelihood of a great power war in Europe (or in the Atlantic), let's remember that the lack of WWII may delay nukes significantly, but eventually someone is going to develop them. You can't keep that genie in the bottle forever.
The most immediate question is how exactly the global economy goes without the mother of all Keynesian simulations. That has to be determined before we look at the following decades. Obviously at some point the European economy is going to recover and experience a boom, probably by the 50s. Of course without the war itself, Keynesian is simply going to be less accepted since it was not shown to have worked. At the same time, what if the global economy simply doesn't recover for another decade or so because the German economy crashes again?

As for nuclear weapons, yes it's going to be developed, but without the anti-war streak among western European countries, and without it being used in anger, nuclear deterrence might simply be less effective. You might have at least one war in which -both- sides have nukes before it's effective as a deterrent.
 
With free elections, the Nazis are going to fizzle to a fringe, with the SPD, CDU, the DVNP, and the liberals dominating the new German party system. The Nazis go in the history books as a weird but ultimately not too harmful temporary aberration and soon largely fade from memory.

Wouldn't Hitler be a huge national hero in this timeline? He managed to annex Austria and the Sudetenland without bloodshed and he died a martyr before all the crazy stuff went down.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Wouldn't Hitler be a huge national hero in this timeline? He managed to annex Austria and the Sudetenland without bloodshed and he died a martyr before all the crazy stuff went down.

If, as I would understand the PoD, he dies by "lone gunman" assassination in November 9, 1938 (the Maurice Bavaud assassination attempt) and the Nazi regime collapses by succession struggle and army takeover (one of the dearest anti-Nazi PoDs ever to my Germanophile heart, throw the scumbags out before they can do anything really tragic and with Germany at its rightful prewar post-Munich apex), he would certainly get a rather positive legacy image.

Questionable as the enduring quality of the Nazi economic recovery might eventually turn to be, he would be remembered as the guy that pulled Germany out of the Great Depression, re-established its dignity as a great power, and all but completed the German national unification without bloodshed.

One way or another, the issue of Danzig and the Corridor would need to be settled sooner or later. I can't see Germany ever accepting the status quo with Poland in good faith if it has a choice, but ITTL I see no way that Britain and France are going to "die for Danzig", with no Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia and anyone less brutal than Hitler arguing Germany's case with the Entente. Let the nationalist fools in Warsaw fight alone for it if they really care. If necessary, a Poland-only M-R style deal may easily be arranged with Stalin even by a non-Nazi German government.

We may expect that he gets to be seen as a more ruthless and bigot "second Bismarck" figure. The infighting and recession after his death are going to tarnish the legacy of the Nazis considerably, but Hitler personally may easily be kept free of it, people blaming the other Nazi leaders instead. One might easily see the "If Hitler had lived" legend arise, expecting all kinds of successes for Germany if he had survived. Note: this might easily be an interesting DBWI topic.

They are never, ever going to expect anything like OTL (the Main Kampf stuff is going to be seen as outlandish propaganda and an outdated, extremist early stage of his political development), except in AH speculations that would be largely deemed ASBish. Evidence of his aggressive war plans is going to be quickly buried with the fall of the Nazi regime. If it ever resurfaces much later at the hands of revisionist historians, it is going to be a muted and partial perspective from an OTL PoV: they are going to tell that possibly Hitler would not have been the German Napoleon figure that many ITTL would expect him to be.

The Nuremberg Laws are going to be repealed and German antisemitism is going to fade back to pre-Nazi Western European standard levels pretty soon after the fall of the regime (although racism is going to remain respectable much longer without the Holocaust). The PoD butterflies away the Kristallnacht. Nobody is ever going to suspect anything like the Holocaust might have happened, if anything Stalin is going to end up in the history books as the great butcher for the Great Terror and the Holodomor (although only to a level akin to OTL Mao, since ITTL the USSR, too, is a success story).
 
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No offense but Eurofed biased germanophily make all is statement dubious.
Even when peoples show him that he is wrong he brush it aside.
 

Typo

Banned
Guys, I like talking about economics, can we go back to talking about economics like the thread title implies instead of where exactly the German-Polish borders are going to be like we are still somewhere in the interbellum? We already have a million shitfests about how great or not so great National Socialist Germany was going to be without Hitler and how great a Satan Stalin was. Let's actually try to keep this thread out of bullshit territory.
 
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Eurofed

Banned
Guys, I like talking about economics, can we go back to talking about economics like the thread title implies instead of where exactly the German-Polish borders are going to be like we are still somewhere in the interbellum?

Fine, but even if you make the Nazi die a thousand deaths in 1923, the German-Polish issue has to be settled. The Versailles status quo was unsustainable (and this was also true for the Russian-Polish end of the issue).

Xgentis, regardless of my Germanophilia, I cannot help but have a thoroughly negative opinion of interwar Poland's foreign policy. To keep giving the finger to both of its great power neighbors is suicidal foolishness for the regional power in the midst, no matter what the outlandish expectations that the third great power on the other side of the continent could and would prop them out forever. This has little to do with Poland specifically and everything to do with geopolitical common sense. It would be the same if an independent Tibet would consistently piss off India and China alike in the expectation that Japan could and would bail them out.

We already have a million shitfests about how great or not so great National Socialist Germany was going to be without Hitler and how great a Satan Stalin was. Let's actually try to keep this thread out of bullshit territory.

Well, the PoD killed buried Nazi Germany to begin with. ;) This is about how great non-Nazi Germany, and Europe, was going to be if Hitler dies before screwing them up. The evilness of Stalin has little to do with it (unless he starts his own brand of WWII, which the scenario specifically excludes), except insofar that if one removes Hitler but leaves Stalin alone, the latter is going to inherit the title of nastiest one by default.
 
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Typo

Banned
Fine, but even if you make the Nazi die a thousand deaths in 1923, the German-Polish issue has to be settled. The Versailles status quo was unsustainable for Poland (and this was also true for the Russian-Polish end of the issue).

Xgentis, regardless of my Germanophilia, I cannot help but have a thoroughly negative opinion of interwar Poland's foreign policy. To keep giving the finger to both of its great power neighbors is suicidal foolishness for the regional power in the midst, no matter what the outlandish expectations that the third great power on the other side of the continent could or would prop them out forever. This has little to do with Poland specifically and everything to do with geopolitical common sense. It would be the same if an independent Tibet would consistently piss off India and China alike in the expectation that Japan could and would bail them out.



Well, the PoD killed buried Nazi Germany to begin with. ;) This is about how great non-Nazi Germany, and Europe, was going to be if Hitler dies before screwing them up. The evilness of Stalin has little to do with it (unless he starts his own brand of WWII, which the scenario specifically excludes), except insofar that if one removes Hitler but leaves Stalin alone, the latter is going to inherit the title of nastiest one by default.
Ok, I'm going to be honest, your ability to shit up threads over your vision of what German/ Central European borders should be is pretty well established, and you have already have 10 or 20 other threads over this same issue because AH.com is as sensitive to where the borders should be in 1939 this as other boards would be about the Israeli-Palestinian issue. This thread will get mired in the same bullshit if you keep posting over this issue. The OP have already specified the political context of this scenario, I'm just going to report you if you insist on going about how the German-Polish border should be East or West of where it is because its functionally irrelevant to the discussion, if you disagree, explain why the ownership of Danzig is going to have earthshaking economic consequences on the German and global economy and why we have to establish its ownership to continue the discussion on the economy.
 
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Ok, I'm going to be honest, your ability to shit up threads over your vision of what German/ Central European borders should be is pretty well established,

Might I recommend you both be careful, please? I could easily see this drifting into an argument that could get either/both of you kicked, and I don't want that to happen. Something's going to need to get settled over the Polish Corridor, but will the peculiarities of the solution actually have a substantial impact on Germany's economy?
 

Eurofed

Banned
Ok, I'm going to be honest, your ability to shit up threads over your vision of what German/ Central European borders should be is pretty well established, and you have already have 10 or 20 other threads over this same issue because AH.com is as sensitive to where the borders should be in 1939 this as other boards would be about the Israeli-Palestinian issue. This thread will get mired in the same bullshit if you keep posting over this issue. The OP have already specified the political context of this scenario, I'm just going to report you if you insist on going about how the German-Polish border should be East or West of where it is because its functionally irrelevant to the discussion, if you disagree, explain why the ownership of Danzig is going to have earthshaking economic consequences on the German and global economy and why we have to establish its ownership to continue the discussion on the economy.

I might remark that you are not the author of the OP, and hence you are not really entitled to establish what is or is not relevant to the topic.

I might also remark, as a non-irrelevant aside, that I strived to make a factual analysis of the topic while someone else (post # 14) threw a personal attack my direction, and so to single me out as the one troublemaker in such an hostile tone is rather unfair.

But for the sake of peace, I'm going to deploy my considerable suspension of disbelief and assume that all lingering irredentist quarrels in 1939 Europe get "magically" settled or more likely, actually frozen by butterflies after the PoD without ever involving the great powers.
 
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Typo

Banned
Might I recommend you both be careful, please? I could easily see this drifting into an argument that could get either/both of you kicked, and I don't want that to happen. Something's going to need to get settled over the Polish Corridor, but will the peculiarities of the solution actually have a substantial impact on Germany's economy?
Not really, it's not like the heart of German industry was in any of the disputed areas. The actual effects of global economic conditions regarding a depression minus WWII will be far more significant than whether Germany's borders are 150 KM this way or that. I guess Danzig might give Germany some additional revenue, but certainly not enough to make a decisive difference.
 
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