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Austria-Hungary winning while Germany loses is an unlikely scenario. But here’s what I came up with.

America has TR as president who tries getting earlier involvement following Lusitania. Germany, fearing American involvement two years earlier, send out Zimmerman Telegram earlier. This triggers a war when it is discovered in late 1915 ITTL. America however has minimal impact on the war in 1915 and only a small impact in 1916.

Italy has suffered some political crisis and finds itself dead set against entry into the war. This saves Austria-Hungary manpower every year going forward. In 1916, without their loses against Italy the Brusilov Offensive fails to capture 400,000 troops. With Italy out and Austria doing well, Romania remains neutral saving more CP manpower. Italy and Romania remaining neutral also gives the CPs extra trade to make the winter of 1916-1917 a bit better.

By 1917, America has a notable (albeit small) fighting force on the Western Front that is rapidly expanding. Germany has to divert troops from East to West to deal with the extra forces, with AH picking up the slack in the East effectively. Russia hurts AH, but the February and October Revolutions still occur on schedule. Romania and Italy remaining neutral makes the Winter a little less brutal.

A peace similar to Brest-Litovsk is concluded in March. AH tells Germany they will take up some quiet sector positions on the Western Front, occupy more of Eastern Europe, prop up Bulgaria, and sends just a bit of manpower to the relevant parts of the Western Front. Germany launches a Spring Offensive but fails against a larger AEF. The Entente launches a 100 Day Offensive equivalent that pushes Germany back.

AH looks at the situation and sees they cannot win in the West or the Balkans, Brest-Litovsk isn’t getting the food gains they want, Italy and Romania could join the Entente and try dividing AH up, Nationalist and Socialist Revolutionaries are gaining influence, and both Serbia and Russia are neutralized. Looking at the situation, AH agrees to a separate peace with the Entente in October that asks AH to leave Brest-Litovsk, and allows AH dominance over Serbia. AH avoids much of the worst of the OTL famines and suffers a few million fewer casualties than the OTL. Germany is stabbed in the back and falls a few weeks later with a Versailles style treaty imposed on them.

From here, where does AH go?

Serbia has been neutralized and Russia thrown into total chaos by the Revolution. Italy is strengthened by staying out of it all. Poland will expect independence with Russia and Germany in the state they are in. The Soviet Union will be an effective boogeymen given its crimes committed right on AH’s doorsteps. And AH has no remaining allies.

Will France and Poland be interested in alliance with AH, provided AH gives up their Polish territory?

What if any political reforms does AH implement?

How does their economy fare?

How will Austria-Hungary deal with the Soviets internationally? And if the Nazis rise, how would effective would Nazi agitation be against the German population of AH?
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