Economy, foreign policy, and political reform in an Austria-Hungary that wins WWI while Germany lose

Austria-Hungary winning while Germany loses is an unlikely scenario. But here’s what I came up with.

America has TR as president who tries getting earlier involvement following Lusitania. Germany, fearing American involvement two years earlier, send out Zimmerman Telegram earlier. This triggers a war when it is discovered in late 1915 ITTL. America however has minimal impact on the war in 1915 and only a small impact in 1916.

Italy has suffered some political crisis and finds itself dead set against entry into the war. This saves Austria-Hungary manpower every year going forward. In 1916, without their loses against Italy the Brusilov Offensive fails to capture 400,000 troops. With Italy out and Austria doing well, Romania remains neutral saving more CP manpower. Italy and Romania remaining neutral also gives the CPs extra trade to make the winter of 1916-1917 a bit better.

By 1917, America has a notable (albeit small) fighting force on the Western Front that is rapidly expanding. Germany has to divert troops from East to West to deal with the extra forces, with AH picking up the slack in the East effectively. Russia hurts AH, but the February and October Revolutions still occur on schedule. Romania and Italy remaining neutral makes the Winter a little less brutal.

A peace similar to Brest-Litovsk is concluded in March. AH tells Germany they will take up some quiet sector positions on the Western Front, occupy more of Eastern Europe, prop up Bulgaria, and sends just a bit of manpower to the relevant parts of the Western Front. Germany launches a Spring Offensive but fails against a larger AEF. The Entente launches a 100 Day Offensive equivalent that pushes Germany back.

AH looks at the situation and sees they cannot win in the West or the Balkans, Brest-Litovsk isn’t getting the food gains they want, Italy and Romania could join the Entente and try dividing AH up, Nationalist and Socialist Revolutionaries are gaining influence, and both Serbia and Russia are neutralized. Looking at the situation, AH agrees to a separate peace with the Entente in October that asks AH to leave Brest-Litovsk, and allows AH dominance over Serbia. AH avoids much of the worst of the OTL famines and suffers a few million fewer casualties than the OTL. Germany is stabbed in the back and falls a few weeks later with a Versailles style treaty imposed on them.

From here, where does AH go?

Serbia has been neutralized and Russia thrown into total chaos by the Revolution. Italy is strengthened by staying out of it all. Poland will expect independence with Russia and Germany in the state they are in. The Soviet Union will be an effective boogeymen given its crimes committed right on AH’s doorsteps. And AH has no remaining allies.

Will France and Poland be interested in alliance with AH, provided AH gives up their Polish territory?

What if any political reforms does AH implement?

How does their economy fare?

How will Austria-Hungary deal with the Soviets internationally? And if the Nazis rise, how would effective would Nazi agitation be against the German population of AH?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
The Entente will not allow Austria to have any influence over Serbia. Italy and Romania would overcome any reluctance they had about joining the Entente if America joined.
 
I don't see how A-H would be allowed to make a separate peace... Things in the proposed ATL are going better for the Entente than they were OTL, and in OTL every attempt of A-H to make a separate peace was rebuffed.

Now, if the US had joined the war at the start and brought things to a close in 2-2.5 years, then A-H could still be strong enough that it doesn't completely break up. But it will still face losses like losing Galicia to Russia and Poland (Poland in a short war like this being an autonomous part of the Russian Empire and receiving the western parts of Galicia) and Bosnia and parts of the Banat to Serbia.

Obviously, if Romania and Italy entered, they'd get pieces too, but if they join late, maybe not anything important.

But if A-H loses fast enough, they could still retain the core parts of their empire. There was more loyalty to the crown than is generally appreciated, and if the army hasn't been completely destroyed and taken over by the Germans, the Hapsburgs can maintain control, though they could well see leftist and nationalist uprisings, which the army and more conservative political groups could together work to contain those, and their neighbours will either be too weak to contest that, or will want the Hapsburgs to win in order to maintain stability.

I would expect that after the fractious first part of the post war period, A-H, like Poland, Italy, Spain and other similar economies, will experience a period of rapid growth. Likely something akin to the Great Depression would happen in TTL as the US would still emerge as the main financial power, though the initial contraction in Europe as the US recalled all their loans would not be as bad due to there being less loans to recall due to the war being shorter. But this could still trigger a trade war, which could still provide enough of a disruption to allow the Nazis to rise to power in Germany.

Russia, though it likely wouldn't be as we know it, since much of how the Bolshevik regime turned out was because of the Civil War, could end up becoming a republic after a shorter WW1 and then ending up a dictatorship under a leftist coalition if the alt-Great Depression hits hard enough. Of course, this wouldn't be very much like the Soviets, even if Stalin himself were in charge and most of his lieutenants were somehow the same, the different path to power would change all the people involved. But you could plausibly arrange things so that the external impression of this (more democratic) Soviet regime was much the same as the external view of the Soviets in OTL.

As to Austro-Hungarian politics, I find that much harder to speculate about. WW1 radically changed politics in all participant states. But of course, being unified will mean Austria-Hungary won't change in ways much like its OTL successor states did...

I suspect that Nazism wouldn't impress in a still unified Austria-Hungary. But I could imagine several ways that a more traditionalist ultra-right could become a major political force. And likely Socialist parties would do better in a still united A-H than it would in its economically wrecked successor states. Especially if there's no Russian Revolution and German Socialism still does well.

And it's hard to say what foreign relations would be like in this scenario. Depending on internal and external factors, this A-H could end up aligning with each of her 3 major neighbours. I'd guess that Serbia and Romania would likely be allied against A-H though, likely along with Italy.

fasquardon
 
I agree how is Austria squirming out of this one. Unless they bail in 1915 which would be whack.. Then of course the entire war is different.. Sure Germany carried the weight, but it wasnt like Austria wasnt just a stick figure in the whole thing.

Russia.. If its before the revolution could hold and maintain as its obvious the world will win against Germany alone.

Then again it might not, but then things could transpire differently.

If Russia stays as one well, the Baltic, Poland and Finland are still part of the empire. Ww 1 wasn't for Poland.

If Italy joins late they may bet triste as consolation. However if Austria is already out then what's the point to join. Same with Romania.

An Austria that bows out and says uh.. This is a really bad idea will face a few problems. 1. Germany is going to be slightly upset.. This means the Prussians are coming.

2. Let's say they bow out and no one interferes. Worst case Hungary bails..

Czechia, Croatia and Slovenia stay.. I really don't see them leaving. Some areas could be lost to a resurgent Poland, but not to Russia, ita massive enough and No one Wants a bigger russia.
Russia plods along on a hollow victory.

Now if Austria turns full coin and actually joins the entente.. Well.. Heh and uh.. Germany has severe issues

Peace could be harsher with Austria climbing southern German states.
 
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@Jiraiyathegallant , While I've always found the idea of a post-WWI Austria-Hungary fascinating, I have to agree that the proposed scenario is unlikely to result in such a thing. Basically you need a way for Austria to make a separate peace with the Entente and a reason for the Entente to accept this offer. Sadly its a rather paradoxical situation, as the Entente needs to do worse to be open to a Status quo ante bellum peace, which means A-H has little reason to want such a peace; on the flip side, a stronger Entente has no reason to entertain a separate peace with A-H. However, some of your ideas have a great merit, such as keeping Italy and Romania out of the war, as well as a relative failure of the Brusilov Offensive. Personally, I would take these and combine them with a successful Sixtus affair, the attempt by Emperor Charles I to cut a separate peace with the Entente. You might also consider doing something with a more chaotic Russian collapse, as the Entente would likely favor a strong Austria on the border of the Communist regime to help contain it (I remember reading that Churchill actually had a thought similar to this so that means that it wouldn't be crazy for the British government to consider). There's also the possibility of getting A-H to fully switch sides and backstab Germany. Unlikely but it would keep the pressure on the Germans and be a reason for the Entente to accept a deal.

So I think something like this could work: Italy stays out of the war for whatever reason (like the Russian victories in the Carpathians that influenced PM Antonio Salandra to finally side with the Entente never happens or something), freeing up the 61+ divisions that were OTL sent to the Italian front and putting Austria in a better position; without an Italian front, the Austro-Hungarian army is able to blunt the Brusilov Offensive and turn it into a failure, which keeps the Romanians out of the war; Russia collapses, and the Sixtus affair happen on schedule, but the US takes a few months longer to enter the war; Germany moves their troops to the Western front; this increase on the Western front gives A-H leverage, "make peace with us or we send our troops to the Western front"; the Entente folds and makes peace. While the Germans are furious and wish to teach their backstabbing ally a lesson, they're in no position to open a new second front. The war ends after the Americans arrive and finally defeat Germany.

This is quite similar to what you proposed but I think the slight differences allow for an Austria-Hungary to emerge intact from the war and in a position to act as a shield against Bolshevism for Europe.
 
@Jiraiyathegallant , While I've always found the idea of a post-WWI Austria-Hungary fascinating, I have to agree that the proposed scenario is unlikely to result in such a thing. Basically you need a way for Austria to make a separate peace with the Entente and a reason for the Entente to accept this offer. Sadly its a rather paradoxical situation, as the Entente needs to do worse to be open to a Status quo ante bellum peace, which means A-H has little reason to want such a peace; on the flip side, a stronger Entente has no reason to entertain a separate peace with A-H. However, some of your ideas have a great merit, such as keeping Italy and Romania out of the war, as well as a relative failure of the Brusilov Offensive. Personally, I would take these and combine them with a successful Sixtus affair, the attempt by Emperor Charles I to cut a separate peace with the Entente. You might also consider doing something with a more chaotic Russian collapse, as the Entente would likely favor a strong Austria on the border of the Communist regime to help contain it (I remember reading that Churchill actually had a thought similar to this so that means that it wouldn't be crazy for the British government to consider). There's also the possibility of getting A-H to fully switch sides and backstab Germany. Unlikely but it would keep the pressure on the Germans and be a reason for the Entente to accept a deal.

So I think something like this could work: Italy stays out of the war for whatever reason (like the Russian victories in the Carpathians that influenced PM Antonio Salandra to finally side with the Entente never happens or something), freeing up the 61+ divisions that were OTL sent to the Italian front and putting Austria in a better position; without an Italian front, the Austro-Hungarian army is able to blunt the Brusilov Offensive and turn it into a failure, which keeps the Romanians out of the war; Russia collapses, and the Sixtus affair happen on schedule, but the US takes a few months longer to enter the war; Germany moves their troops to the Western front; this increase on the Western front gives A-H leverage, "make peace with us or we send our troops to the Western front"; the Entente folds and makes peace. While the Germans are furious and wish to teach their backstabbing ally a lesson, they're in no position to open a new second front. The war ends after the Americans arrive and finally defeat Germany.

This is quite similar to what you proposed but I think the slight differences allow for an Austria-Hungary to emerge intact from the war and in a position to act as a shield against Bolshevism for Europe.
Let’s say we get a successful Sixtus Affair, with AH getting a separate peace after Russia is defeated. Germany is mad but can’t do anything and loses close to the when they lost OTL.

How does AH deal with the issues in the OP going forward?
 
Let’s say we get a successful Sixtus Affair, with AH getting a separate peace after Russia is defeated. Germany is mad but can’t do anything and loses close to the when they lost OTL.

How does AH deal with the issues in the OP going forward?

In a successful Sixtus affair that does not include Germany losing, AH leave the war and accepts France as the rightful owner of Alsace-Moselle, but can not force Germany to accept this,and Serbia is released. For them to manage a peace without giving up any core territory, the Austrian officials would have to offer complete cooperation to the Entente, and war reparations.

This also means Austria will be forced to give back most of their gains from BL treaty. Otherwise the peace is very unlikely. The territories occupied in this place could be used as a new White Russia base by the Entente.

Then, with AH united but broke and diplomatically insulated, I'd say the foreign policy would be "please, don't hate us, we have our own problems, so please ignore us for the moment and lower our war debts", also known as newfound neutrality and debts renegociations. They just can't afford to get into any other trouble, so they'll probably just try to befriend the different countries that have claims on their territory to avoid being eaten alive in the years following the Sixtus Peace.

The economic policy would be reconstruction and debt repayments. They will probably do something similar to France after WW2 : nationalize everything they deem necessary, and rebuild as fast as possible. They may have some military exports, for the Entente as part of the peace treaty to support them against Germany, but it's not guaranteed that they will keep this after the end of WW1 in the rest of the world.

The different people of Austria-Hungary will probably be upset about the devastated economy + no independence thing, so expect the Austro-Hungarian government to loose some of their territories (especially the ones that already have a country like the poles or the serbs), and then they'll promise reforms once the Empire is rebuilt. Then there are several ways to do the stuff : United States of Greater Austria, in a everyone is equal fashion, or the Danubian Confederation, in a federal style, or other projects, like personnal unions or stuff like this
 
In a successful Sixtus affair that does not include Germany losing, AH leave the war and accepts France as the rightful owner of Alsace-Moselle, but can not force Germany to accept this,and Serbia is released. For them to manage a peace without giving up any core territory, the Austrian officials would have to offer complete cooperation to the Entente, and war reparations.

This also means Austria will be forced to give back most of their gains from BL treaty. Otherwise the peace is very unlikely. The territories occupied in this place could be used as a new White Russia base by the Entente.

Not necessarily. First off, HOW are Britain and France going to enforce any demands on Austria-Hungary? In this scenario none of the Entente borders the Empire after the fall of Russia, so they can't easily threaten an invasion. Giving in to the Austrians cost them nothing (they're just accepting the status quo on the ground that they have no way of changing without spending millions of dollars and lives on) and not doing so could cost them a whole lost (ie Austro-Hungarian troops moving to the Western front and perhaps being enough to give the Central powers a breakthrough). As for Serbia, i think the Entente would happily sacrifice Belgrade at this point.

As for the B-L treaty, I wasn't aware that Austria-Hungary actually got anything directly; Russia simply renounced the majority of their European territories but none of these regions seemed to be specifically assigned to anyone. Instead Germany seemed to administer them all.

Then, with AH united but broke and diplomatically insulated, I'd say the foreign policy would be "please, don't hate us, we have our own problems, so please ignore us for the moment and lower our war debts", also known as newfound neutrality and debts renegociations. They just can't afford to get into any other trouble, so they'll probably just try to befriend the different countries that have claims on their territory to avoid being eaten alive in the years following the Sixtus Peace.

Actually A-H could easily play a role in the Entente intervention in the Russian Civil war; after all, they're the strongest intact country along the Russian frontier, so they should be able to act as a basis for any expeditionary force and potentially launch troops of their own.

The economic policy would be reconstruction and debt repayments. They will probably do something similar to France after WW2 : nationalize everything they deem necessary, and rebuild as fast as possible. They may have some military exports, for the Entente as part of the peace treaty to support them against Germany, but it's not guaranteed that they will keep this after the end of WW1 in the rest of the world.

This all sounds about right.

The different people of Austria-Hungary will probably be upset about the devastated economy + no independence thing, so expect the Austro-Hungarian government to loose some of their territories (especially the ones that already have a country like the poles or the serbs), and then they'll promise reforms once the Empire is rebuilt. Then there are several ways to do the stuff : United States of Greater Austria, in a everyone is equal fashion, or the Danubian Confederation, in a federal style, or other projects, like personnal unions or stuff like this

Not really. The economy yes, independence no. That's a myth; the nationalists supported by the Entente were actually a minority of people and most were loyal to the Habsburgs. So I'd expect some riots and uprisings by the more extreme nationalists, but it should be weaker than the failed Communist uprisings that occurred across the region OTL, and those were contained.

OK HOW would A-H loss territories again? They've already made peace with the Entente, so loss from a treaty. The new nations aren't going to be in any position to challenge A-H between fighting the Whites, the Bolsheviks and each other over their borders. Why would they go to war with the only intact Great power in the East?

The real issue for any major reform will be Hungary, as always. The Austrians would need to play the various nationalities within the Crown of St. Stephen against the Magyars and ulimtately break it up into Constituent states that all answer to Vienna. Similar to the USGA but more a combo of that, parts of Germany and parts of the USA.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Not necessarily. First off, HOW are Britain and France going to enforce any demands on Austria-Hungary? In this scenario none of the Entente borders the Empire after the fall of Russia, so they can't easily threaten an invasion. Giving in to the Austrians cost them nothing (they're just accepting the status quo on the ground that they have no way of changing without spending millions of dollars and lives on) and not doing so could cost them a whole lost (ie Austro-Hungarian troops moving to the Western front and perhaps being enough to give the Central powers a breakthrough). As for Serbia, i think the Entente would happily sacrifice Belgrade at this point.

As for the B-L treaty, I wasn't aware that Austria-Hungary actually got anything directly; Russia simply renounced the majority of their European territories but none of these regions seemed to be specifically assigned to anyone. Instead Germany seemed to administer them all.



Actually A-H could easily play a role in the Entente intervention in the Russian Civil war; after all, they're the strongest intact country along the Russian frontier, so they should be able to act as a basis for any expeditionary force and potentially launch troops of their own.



This all sounds about right.



Not really. The economy yes, independence no. That's a myth; the nationalists supported by the Entente were actually a minority of people and most were loyal to the Habsburgs. So I'd expect some riots and uprisings by the more extreme nationalists, but it should be weaker than the failed Communist uprisings that occurred across the region OTL, and those were contained.

OK HOW would A-H loss territories again? They've already made peace with the Entente, so loss from a treaty. The new nations aren't going to be in any position to challenge A-H between fighting the Whites, the Bolsheviks and each other over their borders. Why would they go to war with the only intact Great power in the East?

The real issue for any major reform will be Hungary, as always. The Austrians would need to play the various nationalities within the Crown of St. Stephen against the Magyars and ulimtately break it up into Constituent states that all answer to Vienna. Similar to the USGA but more a combo of that, parts of Germany and parts of the USA.
This post right here is the real myth. Austria-Hungary completely fell apart after the Battle of Vittorio Veneto. Recognizing the independence of the various successor states was simply recognizing the facts on the ground. Hungarians weren’t the problem. Serbs, Romanians, and Italians were, and always would be. Austria-Hungary would be barely hanging on at the end of WWI and would be in no place to get involved in the Russian Civil War.
 
For this you need the fighting there to end, that means Russia, Romania and Italy kicked out of the war. There's now nothing left for AH to fight, redeploying the army to the West is a logistical fairy tale and Wastern Europe is ultimately unimportant for the French and UK wat planners, getting AH out of a war they're not fighting any more would be a very cheap diplomatic victory.
 
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