Economic and diplomatic development in a no WW1 scenario

What are the most plausible development regarding economy and diplomatic situation of the major powers of that time where there is no Sarajevo murder and warmonger go on holiday till 1917 were it is commonly placed the date when Russian empires would have been too strong to wage a 2 front war for Germany? Triple alliance dead? Germany and France warming up their relation? Hungarian secession? Poland? Ireland? Colonies in general??? Japan??? China? The USA? What is the most plausible development of the world during the 20s and 30s ITTL?
 
Russia will complete her military modernization and will appear from the German viewpoint to be too powerful for Germany to attack. This actually might encourage peace as Germany tuns to diplomatic methods of defending herself and her interests instead of threatening war. Some sort of revolution is probably inevitable if the the Tsarist regime continues to insist on an Absolutist government.

Germany will continue to be a world leader in the sciences. German will become an encouraged foreign language to learn in schools around the world. In time it might become the lingua franca in Central and Northern Europe at least. English will remain the language of commerce and French the language of diplomacy. The German economy will overtake the United Kingdom though exactly when will depend on some variables. The Social Democrats will become the majority party in the Reichstag and could implement some "experimental" laws that could harm the economy. Though if they fail bad enough they can be revoked or the Socialists can be voted out of office.

The French economy will not be hammered by the costs of the War and Russia basically defaulting on all the investments they had put into the country. The USA will become the worlds leading "soft power" nation. China is far too important for the Europeans to just leave it to Japan. Without WW1 to distract Europe I think they will be meddling quite a bit in Chinese affairs once the Qing get overthrown such as trying to get the new government to respect the old treaties and such.
 

The Avenger

Banned
What are the most plausible development regarding economy and diplomatic situation of the major powers of that time where there is no Sarajevo murder and warmonger go on holiday till 1917 were it is commonly placed the date when Russian empires would have been too strong to wage a 2 front war for Germany? Triple alliance dead? Germany and France warming up their relation? Hungarian secession? Poland? Ireland? Colonies in general??? Japan??? China? The USA? What is the most plausible development of the world during the 20s and 30s ITTL?
WWI could break out in 1917 in this TL if Hungary tries seceding and if Serbia and/or Romania--with Russian backing--will try exploiting this moment to seize some Hungarian land. I don't think that Russia would outright support Hungary since France might not approve of it given how Hungary's government during this time was very illiberal--granting the suffrage to only something like 6% of its total population. Frenchmen might not want to fight and die for such a regime--even if there is a possibility of reacquiring Alsace-Lorraine!

If WWI is prevented in 1917, however, then what I'd expect would be for Britain, Germany, Austria (including the reconquered Hungary), the Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria, and Japan would eventually create an alliance against the threat of Russia. Meanwhile, Russia would have France, Serbia, and Montenegro as its allies. Italy might join the anti-Russian alliance since Britain is in it and since it gets over 90% of its coal from Britain, but it might instead remain neutral and aloof from the alliance system in the hope of getting some Austrian concessions in exchange for an eventual entry into a war against Russia on the Anglo-German-Austrian side. In this scenario, I think that France would be begging Russia to avoid war--at least until the middle of the 20th century--because Russia might simply not be strong enough to prevent France from getting dogpiled on by the members of this alliance.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Russia will complete her military modernization and will appear from the German viewpoint to be too powerful for Germany to attack. This actually might encourage peace as Germany tuns to diplomatic methods of defending herself and her interests instead of threatening war. Some sort of revolution is probably inevitable if the the Tsarist regime continues to insist on an Absolutist government.

Germany will want peace, but Russia might eventually have other plans--hence the need for Germany to include Britain, the Ottomans, and Japan within its alliance system as soon as possible.

Germany will continue to be a world leader in the sciences. German will become an encouraged foreign language to learn in schools around the world. In time it might become the lingua franca in Central and Northern Europe at least. English will remain the language of commerce and French the language of diplomacy. The German economy will overtake the United Kingdom though exactly when will depend on some variables.

Agreed with everything here.

The Social Democrats will become the majority party in the Reichstag and could implement some "experimental" laws that could harm the economy. Though if they fail bad enough they can be revoked or the Socialists can be voted out of office.

Did the SPD ever get a majority of parliamentary seats in the Weimar era in our TL?

Also, the SPD don't appear to have been lunatics. Thus, they'll probably improve the lives of the working-classes without touching the mechanics of the economy (such as the means of production) like the Bolsheviks did.

The French economy will not be hammered by the costs of the War and Russia basically defaulting on all the investments they had put into the country. The USA will become the worlds leading "soft power" nation. China is far too important for the Europeans to just leave it to Japan. Without WW1 to distract Europe I think they will be meddling quite a bit in Chinese affairs once the Qing get overthrown such as trying to get the new government to respect the old treaties and such.

Could there be a multinational military intervention in China similar to 1900 in the 1910s if it wasn't for WWI?

After all, was a China ruled by warlords in the best interests of Europeans?
 
Germany will want peace, but Russia might eventually have other plans--hence the need for Germany to include Britain, the Ottomans, and Japan within its alliance system as soon as possible.
Russia will have its own issues that will make a war unlikely. I am of the option that Nicholas II's character made a revolution inevitable and revolutions are pretty bad for maintaining the image of a strong foreign policy. That revolution does not need to resemble OTL with the Bolsheviks taking over and the country being under one party rule. We could have:

A constitutional monarchy with checks such as the Tsar can no longer dismiss or close the Duma and the Duma becomes a proper legislature with powers exceeding the Tsar. The revolutionaries will also probably go after and sever the Tsar's connection with the Church entirely. Separating the Church and State (instead of basically abolishing it like the Bolsheviks did) could have big effects on Russia.

Or we could have the monarchy abolished entirely and a republic set up, after all the revolution of 1905 failed to restrain Nicholas so what would be the point of deposing him if someone else comes along drinking the divine-right kool-aid? Of course this would be fairly messy and complicated. Like how would the nobility react or the status and the rights of the non-Russian territories of the empire now that there is no monarch holding it together. Russian republic timelines are always complicated because of this. We opened Pandora's box and just set it on fire.

Did the SPD ever get a majority of parliamentary seats in the Weimar era in our TL?

Also, the SPD don't appear to have been lunatics. Thus, they'll probably improve the lives of the working-classes without touching the mechanics of the economy (such as the means of production) like the Bolsheviks did.
Remember that in TTL there are no Bolsheviks or Lenin telling the world what communism or socialism are supposed to be. Without that there will be more flexibility on what "communism" actually means. That makes socialism a goldmine because voters will have different ideas of what socialism is supposed to be but will still vote for the party anyway. The Social Democrats were gaining seats in every election leading up to the war. They might never go over 50% but they would easily be the dominant party and that gives them the mandate to experiment a little, I was just mentioning that those "experiments" may end up blowing up in their face if the economy suddenly tanks.

Without Communism there will also be a lot of ideological alternatives in TTL. We could see anarchism taking off, starting with the youth. Anarchism on this site I feel is underestimated but it is...complicated. Anarchism can't be represented on a left-right political spectrum because anarchism is a spectrum in and of itself. To represent it we would need a vertical bar that could be freely moved around. In other terms while we may use a political spectrum or a horseshoe to represent our politics, in TTL they might need an alignment chart.

Could there be a multinational military intervention in China similar to 1900 in the 1910s if it wasn't for WWI?

After all, was a China ruled by warlords in the best interests of Europeans?
They would prefer to do less work. If the Qing could maintain the status quo in China while handing out concessions, that would be great, but the Qing will get overthrown and that will means the Europeans will be dealing with new faces. If they had to stage an intervention I do not see why they couldn't. The trans-Siberian railway is open and Japan could be bribed to participate so a Eight-Nation Alliance 2.0 would be a go.
 
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