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Last year I tried starting a discussion on how to get an independent Republican Australia, and while there were some good replies I wanted to get a more expansive exploration of the subject and its consequences, and ideally a TL. While I don't think I'm up to the challenge, I'm still rather new to Australian history, I was hoping others would help me or take up the challenge themselves to create this result.

The main idea, as it usually is in these scenarios, was to start with the Eureka Stockade. This seems obvious enough, being a notable (for Australian history) revolt against the system and became a symbol of the Republican movement in the country. But many have criticized the idea that the Eureka Revolt could lead to Australia breaking from Britain primarily on the grounds that it was just a miner's revolt over licenses. However, did not the American Revolution start with a tax protest and a government crackdown that killed a handful of people? What's most important is not the diggers' reason for rioting, but the consequences of the revolt itself. OTL was already pretty brutal enough to buy the diggers a hell of a lot of sympathy, but it could've gotten even worse.

Let's start at the beginning. The 1850's saw a big gold rush in the province of Victoria, and this brought miners from all over, not just Australia but from Europe, America, even China. People from all walks of life worked together digging in the hope of finding enough gold to eke out a comfortable living. But the British tried to regulate the mining by forcing the diggers to buy licenses, 30 shillings I think, regardless of whether they found anything. This was obviously quite unpopular, and the endemic corruption of local police didn't help. Things really came to a head when a Scottish miner was murdered and the one suspected of the deed found not guilty. A riot eventually started, and the police arrested 3 people who possibly weren't even involved. Eventually the local diggers got together and founded the Ballarat Reform League. This of course led to the famous Eureka Stockade, where Peter Lalor, who had been chosen as their leader, famously had their forces pledge allegiance to the flag of the Southern Cross.

The miners were quite the rabble, but not low in number, spirit, or brains. The Eureka Stockade was not in any way a fort or even a really defensible location, it was more or less just a fenced in camp for the diggers in revolt. Peter Lalor and the other leaders were aware of this, and in the event of an attack by British soldiers and/or police, they planned to fight them at a nearby location called the Gravel Pits, then withdraw to some heights for a final stand if it came to that. The diggers themselves were organized by Lalor into military-style units with captains, and the ones who were without guns were given pikes. One of the best arrayed units was the Independent California Rangers Revolver Brigade led by James McGill, who were all armed with revolvers and Mexican knives (now called the Bowie knife), as well as the First American Rifle Brigade led by a Captain Nelson.

Now IOTL, on the night of December 2nd many of the diggers were away from the stockade and James McGill took his entire brigade of 200 men out to intercept a rumored British column coming to crush them. There was no such column however and when the British commander Rede got word that the stockade was poorly manned he sent his troops to overrun the place, which he did, and the soldiers were vicious enough to kill many of the wounded diggers before a captain told his men to stand down. Peter Lalor himself was badly wounded, but public opinion was in favor of the diggers strongly enough for them to not all be hanged.

And this is around where the initial POD could start. Let's say the British do not find out that the Eureka Stockade is practically abandoned that day and do not attack it before all the miners return. Even better, maybe they attack it just in time to be flanked by the returning California Rangers who gun many of them down before they can retreat, winning the first skirmish for the Diggers and the first victory for anti-government settlers in Australia. The British of course do not let this pass and attack as many times as they have to before the Diggers are broken and routed, and in their fury commit many acts of cruelty, from the bayoneting of the wounded and prisoners (as well as camp followers) to hanging many of the miners put on trial, singling out the Irish ones in particular who make up a plurality if not the majority of the diggers. Peter Lalor himself makes it to America along with many of the others who avoided or escaped arrest, and from there they bide their time.

Meanwhile, the authoritarian tendencies of the colonial government in Australia are not curbed despite widespread public outcry that goes beyond Ballarat or even Victoria. The stand of the Eureka miners inspires similar acts of defiance all across Australia that are often met with force as well. The aftermath of the American Civil War however leaves a large number of Irish people with extensive military experience and many of whom adopt radical views. A large number therefore join the Fenian Brotherhood, who were secretly planning on invading Canada to establish a new land for the oppressed people of Ireland. However, in light of the increasing discontent in Australia, Victoria is chosen instead, and the US government looks the other way as Irish veterans of both the Union and Confederate armies pack up their uniforms and get on the ships to Australia.

Once in Australia, the Fenians start to provoke revolts and take part in guerrilla campaigns alongside the locals, many of them Australian-born Irishmen who find themselves to be maligned to often by the colonial administration, particularly the police force, many of whom are Irish themselves. They are joined by supporting Chartists and Republicans who, while not into the Irish nationalism so much, support the idea of a Victoria free from the control of the British monarchy, and they are in turned joined by foreigners simply seeking a new chance as were the Eureka Diggers. The example of Eureka, though itself not a rebellion for independence, becomes the icon of the allied Fenians and Republicans, who adopt the flag of the Southern Cross as well as the beliefs of Peter Lalor and his compatriots. And this rebellion proceeds to spill across the entire continent, with many people from simple miners and farmers, to lawyers and politicians, and even bushrangers and aborigines, supporting the fight against a colonial government they see as thuggish, corrupt, and never representing their interests.

So, thoughts? Any of this seem remotely plausible and would anyone be interested in seeing a TL?
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