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Let's assume the axis are able to reach the Suez by late 1940 or very early 1941. Would that be enough to effectively secure the Med off from serious allied operations such as an invasion of Italy or Southern France? Or even relatively minor missions such as sending troops and supplies to the Balkans to support national armies under attack there?

I realize Mussolini refused Geman help in OTL. However I don't think that posture was destined to be final under all circumstances.

As examples, maybe Hitler concludes that he can never really trust the Yugoslavs anyway and offers not to veto the desired Italian invasion of Yugoslavia (a higher Mussolini priority than Libya/Egypt) in return for being allowed to offer support in North Africa. Or Germany exerts the same kind of pressure to be allowed into North Africa that they exerted to veto the Yugoslav operation just discussed.

I don't see how a well supplied Afrika Korps led by Rommel and backed up with all the supply trucks and Luftwaffe support the region could accomodate (the limits of Libyan ports are well known) would fail to decimate one 1940 British armored division and iirc two Indian infantry divisions.

It's more a question of how valuable the prize would have been.
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