Eastern Europe's demographics without World Wars?

OTL Eastern Europe saw relatively little net population growth over the last century due to a combination of the World Wars, Genicides, preventable famines, political murders, forced secularization, and emmigration. But in the early twentieth century Eastern Europe seemed to have the potential for rapid population growth, as it had low life expectancy, high total fertility, serious social conservatism, widespread illiteracy, ect...

It almost looks more like Latin America's natural potential for growth than Western Europe's (with the huge difference of Latin America getting immigrants while Eastern Europe loses them).

Given that much of Eastern Europe could double or triple their population if it retained positive TFR into the 80s with similar TFR to Latin America, and that Eastern Europe could also double its life expectancy, might increasing the population of Eastern Europe 4-5 times over be the most realistic scenario absent the twentieth centuries catastrophes?

Could we potentially get 100+ million ethnic Poles? 20 million Serbs? An overall population density similar to Western Europe?
 
well depending on a few things.

no world wars means the Russian, astro-hungarian and german empires as well as the ottoman empire are intact. ( in theory )


Germany controls half of Poland and Russia the other half. both will continue to russify or Germanize said territory.
that said Poland was being industrialized at the time, so you should see populations increase in polish held territories.
no world war 1 makes no polish russio war or the mass population changes.
a healthier Russian empire also will help to increase population(s) at least in the cities.
a stable astro-hungarian empire would help with Czech/Slovak populations

I would say a lot depends on reforms, education and if the old feudal ways can be done away with.

you could easily get 70/80 million poles and a lot of probably in the 10-14 million range serbians if you can prevent even more Balkan wars you could also increase the population of Russia, along with the jewish presence in eastern Europe.

its not just the wars, but also standard of living especially outside of major urban centers
 
Let's say WWI happens, but the bolsheviks are defeated, and Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, and the Baltic states are all independent and control their total ethnic majority areas. (Let's say Galicia is split, similar to OTL).

I imagine population for all of them would be much higher. However the really interesting one is Ukraine (probably would be slightly larger in the east and slightly smaller in the west ITTL). By 1950 you might see more Ukrainian alive than there are IOTL in 2017. From 1914-1953 I estimate around 15-25 million Ukrainians died due to war, famine, genocide, and deportation. Getting rid of all of this and assuming significantly greater economic prosperity (no famine = more babies) I imagine by 1960 Ukraine could have up to 50 million citizens. Assuming birth rates are higher than OTL (not factoring immigration or emigration into this to Israel or the U.S/Canada) I imagine by 2017 ITTL it is not impossible to imagine that there would be over 100 million Ukrainians.

EDIT: I did this all in my head and my math is terrible so don't be surprised if I'm wrong somewhere.
 
Let's say WWI happens, but the bolsheviks are defeated, and Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, and the Baltic states are all independent and control their total ethnic majority areas. (Let's say Galicia is split, similar to OTL).

I imagine population for all of them would be much higher. However the really interesting one is Ukraine (probably would be slightly larger in the east and slightly smaller in the west ITTL). By 1950 you might see more Ukrainian alive than there are IOTL in 2017. From 1914-1953 I estimate around 15-25 million Ukrainians died due to war, famine, genocide, and deportation. Getting rid of all of this and assuming significantly greater economic prosperity (no famine = more babies) I imagine by 1960 Ukraine could have up to 50 million citizens. Assuming birth rates are higher than OTL (not factoring immigration or emigration into this to Israel or the U.S/Canada) I imagine by 2017 ITTL it is not impossible to imagine that there would be over 100 million Ukrainians.

EDIT: I did this all in my head and my math is terrible so don't be surprised if I'm wrong somewhere.
why would you see an Israel if no WW II and Holocaust?

Lviv was a major city, and while western Ukraine is not as heavily populated I could see that change if one can have competent leadership long enough. Ukraine has massive potential for success, and still does.
 
why would you see an Israel if no WW II and Holocaust?

Lviv was a major city, and while western Ukraine is not as heavily populated I could see that change if one can have competent leadership long enough. Ukraine has massive potential for success, and still does.

Well, there was Jewish immigration before WWII as well. Jews even with all the immigration to Israel still constitute 1% of Ukraine IIRC. As vague as we're being we can't say whether Israel will exist at some point or not so I just didn't include it including likely immigration to the area anyways by Zionists like what happened before the war IOTL.

You're certainly right about our potential. Without all those atrocities Ukraine could easily be a significant regional and economic power. Probably can be OTL if we put in enough work.
 
well depending on a few things.

no world wars means the Russian, astro-hungarian and german empires as well as the ottoman empire are intact. ( in theory )


Germany controls half of Poland and Russia the other half. both will continue to russify or Germanize said territory.
that said Poland was being industrialized at the time, so you should see populations increase in polish held territories.
no world war 1 makes no polish russio war or the mass population changes.
a healthier Russian empire also will help to increase population(s) at least in the cities.
a stable astro-hungarian empire would help with Czech/Slovak populations

I would say a lot depends on reforms, education and if the old feudal ways can be done away with.

you could easily get 70/80 million poles and a lot of probably in the 10-14 million range serbians if you can prevent even more Balkan wars you could also increase the population of Russia, along with the jewish presence in eastern Europe.

its not just the wars, but also standard of living especially outside of major urban centers
Slovak population doubled between World wars. I guess A-H dissolutions. and almost doubled after WWII. 90-ties brought stagnation and maybe even slight decline.

But well Slovakia is not Eastern Europe. ;)
 
Slovak population doubled between World wars. I guess A-H dissolutions. and almost doubled after WWII. 90-ties brought stagnation and maybe even slight decline.

But well Slovakia is not Eastern Europe. ;)
true.. Czech and Slovak lands were better off than most during the interwar periods
 
Well, there was Jewish immigration before WWII as well. Jews even with all the immigration to Israel still constitute 1% of Ukraine IIRC. As vague as we're being we can't say whether Israel will exist at some point or not so I just didn't include it including likely immigration to the area anyways by Zionists like what happened before the war IOTL.

You're certainly right about our potential. Without all those atrocities Ukraine could easily be a significant regional and economic power. Probably can be OTL if we put in enough work.


I've said for years that Ukraine should rival Germany personally, its all there, but no one has the vision or determination or the mindset to move things forward
 
Well, no one in power, yet.
plenty with power.. but alas as seems to be the case world wide as of late; not on the side of the people - nor in the best interest of anything but their own private pocketbooks.
There are plenty in the rada as well as others with considerable power and influence, but they don't seem as interested in the plight of the average Ukrainian or the issues at hand that it will take to push Ukraine to the next level, they seem more interested in protecting their small ponds where they are the big fish ( only). of course it has been complicated and even now orders of magnitude more in Ukraine .

I lived in Kyiv for a while, great city that could be even more if it was given a chance by not just local oligarchs but by regional powers playing dick waving contests ( different topic for different forum though. ) slava ukrainya
 
plenty with power.. but alas as seems to be the case world wide as of late; not on the side of the people - nor in the best interest of anything but their own private pocketbooks.
There are plenty in the rada as well as others with considerable power and influence, but they don't seem as interested in the plight of the average Ukrainian or the issues at hand that it will take to push Ukraine to the next level, they seem more interested in protecting their small ponds where they are the big fish ( only). of course it has been complicated and even now orders of magnitude more in Ukraine .

I lived in Kyiv for a while, great city that could be even more if it was given a chance by not just local oligarchs but by regional powers playing dick waving contests ( different topic for different forum though. ) slava ukrainya


I totally agree. Hopefully, we'll realize it all soon; personally, I think we will. Героям Слава!

If we are talking about AH potential Ukraine is imo the most underrated especially on this site. In this specific context especially, Ukraine is currently the largest Nation within Europe (not counting French overseas territory), the most fertile Nation on earth, and a Nation with vast mineral wealth like the coal mines in the Donbas. Double our population and we've got 'regional power' written all over the country. Plus you'd be removing Soviet corruption and the oligarchs which that alone is a massive boon.
 
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