The conditions for victory in the west are Jean Jaurès isn't shot at the beginning of the war when nationalistic fervor distracted even the staunchest French socialist. In 1917, after the disaster of the Nivelle Offensive, he calls for a general strike only to be gunned down which gives rise to mass public unrest and riots leading to the fall of the French government and peace with Germany. With France knocked out of the war, the British and the Americans keep the war going for a bit in the Middle East and the Balkans through Greece and the Italians keep fighting Austria-Hungary but they are very demoralized. Ultimately without the Eastern or Western front they can't beat the Central Powers and we get a negotiated peace.
Assuming the Soviet's win the Russian Civil War will they be able to make the kind of advances into Eastern Europe they did in OTL? Will the German supported The Hetmanate survive or will the Soviets gobble it up? Would German plans to make Poland remain under German sovereignty 'for all time' be feasible or would a economically and militarily exhausted German Empire be forced to concede greater autonomy to Poland?
Assuming the Soviet's win the Russian Civil War will they be able to make the kind of advances into Eastern Europe they did in OTL? Will the German supported The Hetmanate survive or will the Soviets gobble it up? Would German plans to make Poland remain under German sovereignty 'for all time' be feasible or would a economically and militarily exhausted German Empire be forced to concede greater autonomy to Poland?