East Prussia Austria swap

What if after WWI Germany is forced to give up East Prussia as an independent state but is given Austria as compensastion:

A: How likely is this in OTL Versailles?

B: Will this prevent the rise of the Nazis
- If no, will they still invade Poland to unify it?

C: Will Germany be better off?
 
After the collapse of the AH empire in our timeline, Austria renamed itself "German Austria" and left itself with only Austria proper and the Sudetenland, it's possible the allies would let it unify with Germany and deny Germany unification with East Prussia instead. there's no reason Nazism won't rise, Anschluss Prussia so on. the Soviets will probably just make a puppet state out of East Prussia after the war instead of dividing it. that's what I think at least.
 
What if after WWI Germany is forced to give up East Prussia as an independent state but is given Austria as compensastion:

A: How likely is this in OTL Versailles?

B: Will this prevent the rise of the Nazis
- If no, will they still invade Poland to unify it?

C: Will Germany be better off?
Why?

East Prussia was seen as an integral part of Germany (especially since this was the region from which Prussia, the later founder of Germany, began), unlike Austria, which was not even a part of the German Empire.

You can get a heavily cut down East Prussia - hand over the southern, more Polish parts to Poland and attach the eastern parts to Lithuania in accordance to the Act of Tilsit - but forming an independent East Prussia? Not gonna fly.

I mean... I guess you could have East Prussia be declared a League of Nations condominium like Klaipėda in OTL, and that condominium is later transformed into an independent state somehow... but if the Entente is so harsh to Germany that they are even considering ripping off all of East Prussia, why would they even consider allowing Germany annex Austria?
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Why?

East Prussia was seen as an integral part of Germany (especially since this was the region from which Prussia, the later founder of Germany, began), unlike Austria, which was not even a part of the German Empire.

You can get a heavily cut down East Prussia - hand over the southern, more Polish parts to Poland and attach the eastern parts to Lithuania in accordance to the Act of Tilsit - but forming an independent East Prussia? Not gonna fly.

I mean... I guess you could have East Prussia be declared a League of Nations condominium like Klaipėda in OTL, and that condominium is later transformed into an independent state somehow... but if the Entente is so harsh to Germany that they are even considering ripping off all of East Prussia, why would they even consider allowing Germany annex Austria?

Maybe to have a larger share of Catholics in the new Germany?
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
East Prussia had roughly 2 million inhabitants, about 3% of the population of Weimar Germany.

Would hardly make a difference.

But Austria had about 8, with Sudeten another 3.

And that is all I have to say in this thread.
Should have ignored it.
 
Austria is economical far more important than East Prussia, so this Germany would be far more stronger. So C yes.
A: unlikely since C is correct. Therefore your scenario has a really low probability.
B: impossible to predict. Weimar Germany is unstable enough for multiple diverging results. Many ideologies have a chance of winning in Weimar Germany. But you need to be careful, a reunification between East Pussia and Alt-Germany is likely.

An independent East Prussia around Königsberg won't archieve any importance and would closely align their foreign policy with Germany. This East Prussia probably has territorial disputes with Lithuania and Poland, therefore Germany is the best ally and trade partner.
You don't have a special national identity in that region, even if there are minorities like the Masurians. Probably conservative elements which want a reunification with Germany would control the region.
If this East Prussia should survive for more than a two decades you need a left wing Germany with a different ideology incompatible with the conservative-nationalistic rulers of East Prussia.
You could also force a stronger Polish Influence if Poland gets various rights over East Prussia in ALT-Versailles.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Austria is economical far more important than East Prussia, so this Germany would be far more stronger. So C yes.
A: unlikely since C is correct. Therefore your scenario has a really low probability.
B: impossible to predict. Weimar Germany is unstable enough for multiple diverging results. Many ideologies have a chance of winning in Weimar Germany. But you need to be careful, a reunification between East Pussia and Alt-Germany is likely.

An independent East Prussia around Königsberg won't archieve any importance and would closely align their foreign policy with Germany. This East Prussia probably has territorial disputes with Lithuania and Poland, therefore Germany is the best ally and trade partner.
You don't have a special national identity in that region, even if there are minorities like the Masurians. Probably conservative elements which want a reunification with Germany would control the region.
If this East Prussia should survive for more than a two decades you need a left wing Germany with a different ideology incompatible with the conservative-nationalistic rulers of East Prussia.
You could also force a stronger Polish Influence if Poland gets various rights over East Prussia in ALT-Versailles.

What is the longest a formally separate East Prussia could last?

What is the longest it could retain de facto independence?

Should we assume that East Prussia will always follow mainland Germany's lead, no matter how extreme the politics of mainland Germany get. IE, East Prussia cannot be a refuge for Socialists or political parties potentially frozen out of German politics if there is a Nazi or similarly totalitarian regime?
 
What is the longest a formally separate East Prussia could last?

What is the longest it could retain de facto independence?

Should we assume that East Prussia will always follow mainland Germany's lead, no matter how extreme the politics of mainland Germany get. IE, East Prussia cannot be a refuge for Socialists or political parties potentially frozen out of German politics if there is a Nazi or similarly totalitarian regime?

East Prussia was one of the more conservative regions of Weimar and Imperial Germany. Therefore it is highly unlikely, that an independent East Prussia would become the exile for German Socialists or other Leftists. It wouldn't follow Germany's lead, if Germany would become communist.
 
East Prussians were German patriots and would not be willing to be separated from Germany, but there is one thing, that would change that-Germany turns Red while conservative East Prussia became 'German Taiwan'. German Communist revolution spreads to Austria too, but in East Prussian enclave "White" German government survives (maybe even with monarchy restored). Population of East Prussia would possibly vastly increase with influx of German 'white émigrés'.
 

Deleted member 94680

Article 88
The independence of Austria is inalienable otherwise than with the consent of the Council of the League of Nations. Consequently Austria undertakes in the absence of the consent of the said Council to abstain from any act which might directly or indirectly or by any means whatever compromise her independence, particularly, and until her admission to membership of the League of Nations, by participation in the affairs of another Power.
Treaty of Saint-Germain-en-Laye, Part III “Political Clauses for Europe”
 
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