Suppose the Central Powers are victorious in 1916 because Germany chooses an "east first" strategy, what will Europe look like afterwards? I have worked out a timeline for this and incorporated it into maps. I am curious about your opinion!
Prelude
1914
28 June Murder of Franz Ferdinand (OTL)
23 July Austria-Hungary issues an ultimatum to Serbia (OTL)
25 July Mobilization Austria-Hungary (OTL)
25 July Partial mobilization Russia (OTL)
28 July Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia (OTL)
30 July Total mobilization Russia (OTL)
1 August Mobilization Germany and declaration of war on Russia (OTL)
1 August Mobilization France (OTL)
1 August Germany and the Ottoman Empire sign defensive treaty (OTL)
2 August Britain requisitioned two battleships destined for the Ottoman Navy (OTL)
4 August German army units enter Russian Poland from Silesia (ATL)
4 August The ships Goeben and Breslau are ordered to sail to Constantinople (OTL)
5 August France issues an ultimatum to Germany to withdraw from Russia (ATL)
6 August France declares war on Germany and activates Plan XVII (ATL)
6 August Austria-Hungary declares war on Russia (OTL)
7 August Germany occupies Luxembourg to prevent a French attack via Luxembourg (ATL)
7 August Britain declares itself neutral under the following conditions (ATL):
2 November Russia declares war on the Ottoman Empire (OTL)
5 November France declares war on the Ottoman Empire (OTL)
Western front
Plan XVII is disastrous for France, just like in OTL. On 7 August, the French invade Alsace towards Mülhausen. A larger offensive against Lorraine will follow on 14 August. Both offensives are a fiasco and the French are beaten back with great losses. At the beginning of September, Germany conquer the mining area around Longwy and Briey. After this, the front stabilizes and trench warfare ensues. New French attacks in October were of no avail and during 1915 the Western Front remained quiet. However, British loans keep the French war industry going. It was not until 1916 that France dared to take on a new offensive, in which hundreds of thousands were killed. The war has become very unpopular in France and protests are breaking out. When Russia asks for an armistice on 20 September 1916, France follows a day later.
Eastern front, see “WW1 Aufmarsch II Ost in maps”
German army units advance from Silesia towards the Vistula River from 4 August. The German main force is concentrated in East Prussia. On 15 August, the Russians invade East Prussia and are crushed at Tannenberg. In Galicia, the Russians are initially successful. The Austro-Hungarian army is driven back to behind the San. The Germans come to the aid of the Austrians and in a large-scale counter-offensive the Russians are expelled from the Polish salient in October. Another successful offensive by Germany and Austria-Hungary followed in 1915. This involves the encirclement of Russian armies, which are facing serious shortages. As a result, the front line is shifted a few hundred kilometers to the east. Next, Germany conquer the Baltic provinces. However, a German peace proposal is rejected by the Tsar.
In 1916 the Russians have recovered and are able to launch three major offensives. Only the Brusilov offensive against the Austro-Hungarian army is initially successful. However, Germany get Sweden and Romania on its side. Via Romania, Brusilov is attacked from behind and defeated. Finland is liberated with Swedish help. This is followed by an offensive towards St. Petersburg. Faced with the Germans at the gates of the city and internal unrest, the Tsar is eventually forced to sign an armistice on 20 September 1916.
The Balkans
Largely similar to OTL. The Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia in 1914 is unsuccessful. Only after the Bulgarian entry into the war on 14 October 1915, a successful offensive follow in which Serbia is wiped off the map. As Italy remains neutral in this TL, Austria-Hungary has troops available to attack Montenegro and Albania as early as November. Because the British remain neutral, the Austrian navy has more possibilities along the Montenegrin and Albanian coasts. As a result, the escape route of the retreating Serbian army is cut off and it must surrender completely.
Middle Eastern theater
The Russian Caucasus Campaign is largely similar to OTL. Without the British, however, there will be no Gallipoli campaign. After Russian insistence, the French start the Alexandretta campaign in March 1915. After all, it remains quiet on the Western Front. The French are able to take the area around Alexendretta, but attacks towards Aleppo and Adana meet with unexpected fierce Ottoman resistance. The supply is also hampered by German U-boat attacks. Nevertheless, the French are able to hold their position and block the important roads between Anatolia and Arabia. A considerable amount of Ottoman troops are bound, which cannot be deployed against the Russians. The Russians therefore are able to conquer a considerable part of the Armenian Highland in 1916. However, the French cannot prevent the Armenian Genocide. For a detailed map, see this thread.
Maritime warfare
The German Kaiserliche Marine is blocking the Gulf of Finland and the White Sea. As a result, the Russians can hardly trade with foreign countries, except through Vladivostok. Only U-boats are used against the French in the Mediterranean. Deploying the HSF in the Mediterranean would increase the risk of British entry into the war on the French side too much. However, Germany does send out some ships to protect its colonies from French attacks. The French keep their fleet largely in the Mediterranean to maintain the blockade of the Adriatic Sea, to supply Alexandretta and to hunt German U-boats.
Colonial warfare
This is limited to Togoland and Kamerun. German Togoland is occupied by the French within two months after the start of the war. However, an attempt to conquer German Kamerun in 1915 fails. German colonial troops are able to move the fighting to Gabon. After the port city of Libreville is captured with the help of the Kaiserliche Marine, the battle is largely over.
Prelude
1914
28 June Murder of Franz Ferdinand (OTL)
23 July Austria-Hungary issues an ultimatum to Serbia (OTL)
25 July Mobilization Austria-Hungary (OTL)
25 July Partial mobilization Russia (OTL)
28 July Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia (OTL)
30 July Total mobilization Russia (OTL)
1 August Mobilization Germany and declaration of war on Russia (OTL)
1 August Mobilization France (OTL)
1 August Germany and the Ottoman Empire sign defensive treaty (OTL)
2 August Britain requisitioned two battleships destined for the Ottoman Navy (OTL)
4 August German army units enter Russian Poland from Silesia (ATL)
4 August The ships Goeben and Breslau are ordered to sail to Constantinople (OTL)
5 August France issues an ultimatum to Germany to withdraw from Russia (ATL)
6 August France declares war on Germany and activates Plan XVII (ATL)
6 August Austria-Hungary declares war on Russia (OTL)
7 August Germany occupies Luxembourg to prevent a French attack via Luxembourg (ATL)
7 August Britain declares itself neutral under the following conditions (ATL):
- Belgium's neutrality is respected.
- The Channel and southern North Sea form a “Neutral Zone”, prohibited for (German) naval vessels.
- No (German) threat to British merchant ships and trade routes.
2 November Russia declares war on the Ottoman Empire (OTL)
5 November France declares war on the Ottoman Empire (OTL)
Western front
Plan XVII is disastrous for France, just like in OTL. On 7 August, the French invade Alsace towards Mülhausen. A larger offensive against Lorraine will follow on 14 August. Both offensives are a fiasco and the French are beaten back with great losses. At the beginning of September, Germany conquer the mining area around Longwy and Briey. After this, the front stabilizes and trench warfare ensues. New French attacks in October were of no avail and during 1915 the Western Front remained quiet. However, British loans keep the French war industry going. It was not until 1916 that France dared to take on a new offensive, in which hundreds of thousands were killed. The war has become very unpopular in France and protests are breaking out. When Russia asks for an armistice on 20 September 1916, France follows a day later.
Eastern front, see “WW1 Aufmarsch II Ost in maps”
German army units advance from Silesia towards the Vistula River from 4 August. The German main force is concentrated in East Prussia. On 15 August, the Russians invade East Prussia and are crushed at Tannenberg. In Galicia, the Russians are initially successful. The Austro-Hungarian army is driven back to behind the San. The Germans come to the aid of the Austrians and in a large-scale counter-offensive the Russians are expelled from the Polish salient in October. Another successful offensive by Germany and Austria-Hungary followed in 1915. This involves the encirclement of Russian armies, which are facing serious shortages. As a result, the front line is shifted a few hundred kilometers to the east. Next, Germany conquer the Baltic provinces. However, a German peace proposal is rejected by the Tsar.
In 1916 the Russians have recovered and are able to launch three major offensives. Only the Brusilov offensive against the Austro-Hungarian army is initially successful. However, Germany get Sweden and Romania on its side. Via Romania, Brusilov is attacked from behind and defeated. Finland is liberated with Swedish help. This is followed by an offensive towards St. Petersburg. Faced with the Germans at the gates of the city and internal unrest, the Tsar is eventually forced to sign an armistice on 20 September 1916.
The Balkans
Largely similar to OTL. The Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia in 1914 is unsuccessful. Only after the Bulgarian entry into the war on 14 October 1915, a successful offensive follow in which Serbia is wiped off the map. As Italy remains neutral in this TL, Austria-Hungary has troops available to attack Montenegro and Albania as early as November. Because the British remain neutral, the Austrian navy has more possibilities along the Montenegrin and Albanian coasts. As a result, the escape route of the retreating Serbian army is cut off and it must surrender completely.
Middle Eastern theater
The Russian Caucasus Campaign is largely similar to OTL. Without the British, however, there will be no Gallipoli campaign. After Russian insistence, the French start the Alexandretta campaign in March 1915. After all, it remains quiet on the Western Front. The French are able to take the area around Alexendretta, but attacks towards Aleppo and Adana meet with unexpected fierce Ottoman resistance. The supply is also hampered by German U-boat attacks. Nevertheless, the French are able to hold their position and block the important roads between Anatolia and Arabia. A considerable amount of Ottoman troops are bound, which cannot be deployed against the Russians. The Russians therefore are able to conquer a considerable part of the Armenian Highland in 1916. However, the French cannot prevent the Armenian Genocide. For a detailed map, see this thread.
Maritime warfare
The German Kaiserliche Marine is blocking the Gulf of Finland and the White Sea. As a result, the Russians can hardly trade with foreign countries, except through Vladivostok. Only U-boats are used against the French in the Mediterranean. Deploying the HSF in the Mediterranean would increase the risk of British entry into the war on the French side too much. However, Germany does send out some ships to protect its colonies from French attacks. The French keep their fleet largely in the Mediterranean to maintain the blockade of the Adriatic Sea, to supply Alexandretta and to hunt German U-boats.
Colonial warfare
This is limited to Togoland and Kamerun. German Togoland is occupied by the French within two months after the start of the war. However, an attempt to conquer German Kamerun in 1915 fails. German colonial troops are able to move the fighting to Gabon. After the port city of Libreville is captured with the help of the Kaiserliche Marine, the battle is largely over.