East. European Immigration to Germany After Germany Wins WWI

CaliGuy

Banned
Apologies for the long question; however, here goes:

If Germany would have won World War I (or at least won World War I in the East with a stalemate in the West--perhaps due to no German resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare, which results in continued U.S. neutrality in World War I) and would have still acquired Brest-Litovsk-style territorial gains in the East, would large numbers of Eastern Europeans (especially, but not only, Poles and/or Ukrainians) have immigrated to Germany in the decades afterwards?

Indeed, I would think that a Germany which won World War I (or at least achieved a partial victory in World War I--with it being allowed to keep its Eastern territorial gains afterwards) would have become very prosperous in the decades afterwards, thus possibly being a *very* attractive target to Eastern Europeans (who will want to immigrate to and to settle in Germany).

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 
Germany would have a hard time surpassing the Americas as the primary land of opportunity.

The fact that the Germans who await them in the Empire are the same Germans who are colonizing Eastern Europe, pushing out of assimilating the locals and overall aren't a benevolent overlord would deter Eastern Europeans even more.
 
Germany did not annex or intend on annexing the territories from Brest Litvosk (with some minor exceptions) it all would have gone to Polish, Ukrainian, Lithuanian, and Belorussian states. The Ukrainian one under Vasyl von Hapsburg almost certainly (Skoropadsky was not popular enough to maintain power long term without German military assistance, better to make a popular compromise than call in a foreign army), who was notoriously hard to control for the Germans. The Polish one, likely under his father, another Hapsburg. Germany might see some immigration but I doubt it. What job opportunities would Slavs have in Germany that they would be paid for to make moving to a foreign country worth it? Especially when many do not speak the language. I imagine the economies of the Eastern states will expand rapidly as they quench Germany's demand for raw materials and agricultural products.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Germany would have a hard time surpassing the Americas as the primary land of opportunity.

The fact that the Germans who await them in the Empire are the same Germans who are colonizing Eastern Europe, pushing out of assimilating the locals and overall aren't a benevolent overlord would deter Eastern Europeans even more.
Couldn't the U.S. have still passed large-scale immigration restrictions in this TL, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Germany did not annex or intend on annexing the territories from Brest Litvosk (with some minor exceptions) it all would have gone to Polish, Ukrainian, Lithuanian, and Belorussian states.

Yes; correct!

The Ukrainian one under Vasyl von Hapsburg almost certainly (Skoropadsky was not popular enough to maintain power long term without German military assistance, better to make a popular compromise than call in a foreign army), who was notoriously hard to control for the Germans. The Polish one, likely under his father, another Hapsburg. Germany might see some immigration but I doubt it.

OK.

What job opportunities would Slavs have in Germany that they would be paid for to make moving to a foreign country worth it?

Much higher wages, no?

Especially when many do not speak the language.

Many people immigrated to the U.S. in spite of not knowing English, though.

I imagine the economies of the Eastern states will expand rapidly as they quench Germany's demand for raw materials and agricultural products.

Perhaps.
 
There will certainly be some immigration. Especially from some German communities in eastern Europe. Overall, I don't think it will reach massive proportions.

Regarding the Poles: if the Border Strip plan is implemented, it means that millions of them are either expelled from Germany or "encouraged" to leave through state-sponsored harassment. So their overall numbers would be greatly reduced, they may not be eager to immigrate, and the German government might not want to let them (back) into the country in large numbers.
Perhaps some other communities, like Ukrainians or Romanians (especially those from Transylvania), would be allowed to immigrate in greater numbers.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
There will certainly be some immigration. Especially from some German communities in eastern Europe. Overall, I don't think it will reach massive proportions.

Regarding the Poles: if the Border Strip plan is implemented, it means that millions of them are either expelled from Germany or "encouraged" to leave through state-sponsored harassment. So their overall numbers would be greatly reduced, they may not be eager to immigrate, and the German government might not want to let them (back) into the country in large numbers.
Perhaps some other communities, like Ukrainians or Romanians (especially those from Transylvania), would be allowed to immigrate in greater numbers.
Question--how were the Poles in the Ruhr treated in comparison to the Poles in Posen? Indeed, I am wondering if having a lot of Poles in large urban areas would be perceived as being less threatening by the German leadership than having a lot of Poles in areas such as Posen (due to the risk of Polish separatism).
 
I think it entirely plausible that there might be large numbers of migrants from eastern Europe in Germany in this scenario, even if Germany embarks on radically anti-Polish policies. If you want a single market in goods and whatnot, a single market in labour is not going to be far behind. How well Germany will react to this, mind, is another thing.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I think it entirely plausible that there might be large numbers of migrants from eastern Europe in Germany in this scenario, even if Germany embarks on radically anti-Polish policies. If you want a single market in goods and whatnot, a single market in labour is not going to be far behind. How well Germany will react to this, mind, is another thing.
By "common market," you mean within the framework of a customs union, correct? If so, could it be possible to exclude Catholic-majority countries (Poland, Lithuania, Austria-Hungary, et cetera) from this customs union?
 
By "common market," you mean within the framework of a customs union, correct? If so, could it be possible to exclude Catholic-majority countries (Poland, Lithuania, Austria-Hungary, et cetera) from this customs union?

I really do not think that any exclusion would be possible. If all these countries are in a more or less close union with Germany, how can their citizens be excluded? Would there be any possibility of shutting off Austria-Hungary, or even likelihood? And what message would closing off Germany to Catholics send to Germany's own Catholics, including the various Catholic-majority states?
 
re: eastern states: I think you're likely to see something analogous to the Soviet bloc. nominally free states controlled by Germany and part of their economic sphere.

with Germany as racist as it was, I can't imagine non-Germans being welcomed with open arms, so life would have to be pretty bad in the east to see Germany as a land of opportunity for immigrants.
 
The primary destination would still be the US, but, a strong European integration will inevitably lead to the influx of impoverished Slavs in the industrial centers of Germany IMHO. Also, an assimilationist policy seems much more reasonable than simply shipping cheap workforce to a potential rival instead of using it to boost its heavy industry. Still, it certainly depends on how German public opinion develops after the war.
 
Shocking though this may seem, Germany IOTL saw strong Eastern European immigration prior to WWI. Not on the scale of the United States or Canada (simply because there's no room to put that many people), but sustained and sizable. The government hated it. It was one reason behind the 1913 citienship laws and the many petty restrictions imposed on seasonal labour. Economic interest always prevented effective countermeasures, though. Much like US business today depends on cheap Mexican immigrant labour, Germany's elites needed their Polish, Hungarian, Italian and Russian harvesters and miners, seamstresses, bricklayers and waiters.

Being an immigrant in Germany wasn't nice, but it was nicer than being a landless labourer in Galicia or Podolia.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Shocking though this may seem, Germany IOTL saw strong Eastern European immigration prior to WWI. Not on the scale of the United States or Canada (simply because there's no room to put that many people), but sustained and sizable. The government hated it. It was one reason behind the 1913 citienship laws and the many petty restrictions imposed on seasonal labour. Economic interest always prevented effective countermeasures, though. Much like US business today depends on cheap Mexican immigrant labour, Germany's elites needed their Polish, Hungarian, Italian and Russian harvesters and miners, seamstresses, bricklayers and waiters.

Being an immigrant in Germany wasn't nice, but it was nicer than being a landless labourer in Galicia or Podolia.
Do you have detailed immigration data for the German Empire? Indeed, I would like to see the raw data and numbers in regards to this.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The primary destination would still be the US, but, a strong European integration will inevitably lead to the influx of impoverished Slavs in the industrial centers of Germany IMHO. Also, an assimilationist policy seems much more reasonable than simply shipping cheap workforce to a potential rival instead of using it to boost its heavy industry. Still, it certainly depends on how German public opinion develops after the war.
Couldn't the U.S. still impose large-scale immigration restrictions in the 1920s or 1930s in this TL, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I really do not think that any exclusion would be possible. If all these countries are in a more or less close union with Germany, how can their citizens be excluded? Would there be any possibility of shutting off Austria-Hungary, or even likelihood? And what message would closing off Germany to Catholics send to Germany's own Catholics, including the various Catholic-majority states?
Weren't German Catholics already strongly pissed off by the Kulturkampf, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
re: eastern states: I think you're likely to see something analogous to the Soviet bloc. nominally free states controlled by Germany and part of their economic sphere.

with Germany as racist as it was, I can't imagine non-Germans being welcomed with open arms, so life would have to be pretty bad in the east to see Germany as a land of opportunity for immigrants.
Out of curiosity--were the German Social Democrats also racist during this time?
 
Do you have detailed immigration data for the German Empire? Indeed, I would like to see the raw data and numbers in regards to this.

Not on hand. The book you want is Herbert, Ulrich: Geschichte der Ausländerbeschäftigung in Deutschland 1880-1980 (ISBN 3-8012-3019-8. Old, but thoroughly sourced.

Snapshot: statistics for 1907 show 882,315 foreign-born workers employed in Germany. Poles from russia and Austria-Hungary dominate agriculture, Austro-Hungarians and Italians manufacturing. Interestingly, only 2.9% of all agricultural workers but 4.48% of industrial workers were foreign-born.

In 1913, 916,004 foreign-born workers (you have to love the false accuracy of those statistics) were listed in Prussia alone. All but 360,000 of them were seasonally employed. 270.000 of them were Poles.

Neither of these figures count most Ruhrpolen, as they were Prussian nationals.
 
Out of curiosity--were the German Social Democrats also racist during this time?

Everybody was racist, but they were not ragingly so. The party actually fought for the rights of national minorities against discriminatory association laws and tried to organise them (the Poles were mostly not interested - if they voted, it was for national bloc or Catholic parties). Comparing the mildly annoyed 'foreigners bringing down wages and importing false consciousness' stuff from the SPD with the bullhorn rants about inferior races polluting German blood and outbreeding the Aryan stock from the Völkische is illustrative.
 
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