East Asian immigration to Peru

[FernandoPerla]

In the 19th and 20th centuries, Peru received a considerable flux of Chinese and Japanese immigrants. From 1849 and 1899, respectively.
They made great contributions to Peruvian culture. Peruvians with full or partial Chinese ancestry are approximately 6,4 million (about 20% of the country's population), and there are about 160,000 Peruvians of Japanese ancestry, according to Wikipedia.
Do you think, given the context (a Latin American 19th century democracy with a Pacific coastline), that they could have arrived in larger groups than they did?
If so, what would have been necessary to achieve that? And what impact would that have had in Peruvian society?

 

[MrKrabsWorstNightmare]

In the 19th and 20th centuries, Peru received a considerable flux of Chinese and Japanese immigrants. From 1849 and 1899, respectively.
They made great contributions to Peruvian culture. Peruvians with full or partial Chinese ancestry are approximately 6,4 million (about 20% of the country's population), and there are about 160,000 Peruvians of Japanese ancestry, according to Wikipedia.
Do you think, given the context (a Latin American 19th century democracy with a Pacific coastline), that they could have arrived in larger groups than they did?
If so, what would have been necessary to achieve that? And what impact would that have had in Peruvian society?

Perhaps an earlier Chinese Exclusion act that diverts some immigrants from America to Peru?
About the impact... I’m not really sure. I think they would assimilate (as they adopted local surnames and OTL). You would have to keep a steady flow of immigrants to form larger “blocs” of Chinese or Japanese cultures.

Didn’t Peru have a President of Japanese ethnicity anyway?

 

[EMT]

Perhaps an earlier Chinese Exclusion act that diverts some immigrants from America to Peru?
About the impact... I’m not really sure. I think they would assimilate (as they adopted local surnames and OTL). You would have to keep a steady flow of immigrants to form larger “blocs” of Chinese or Japanese cultures.

Didn’t Peru have a President of Japanese ethnicity anyway?

Yep we did, and he was a massive scumbag, but what's new in Latin American politics.

My understanding of Chinese immigration to Peru is that it was quite similar to the American version; they built infrastructure and worked plantations as glorified slave labor that transitioned to free laborers, Peruvians were distrusting of them, eventually blocked further immigration. They were also almost exclusively men, so there was a fair bit of extra tribalism involved but since they married mostly native women, the white/mestizo elite largely ignored them. Peruvian opinion turned against them when they led a pro-Chilean uprising during the War of the Pacific that led to Peruvians blaming them for the loss of the war, resulting in pogroms until the 1890s and a ban on Chinese immigrants until the 1970s. Prior to and post-pogrom, the Chinese integrated quite well into Peruvian society when they managed to escape their slave labor through marriage. The vast majority assimilated demographically bar some cultural customs.

It's not hard to keep the Chinese immigration flowing. Either avoid the War of the Pacific or have the Peruvians win, meaning that the coolie system stays in place for longer. The Chinese did a lot for the Peruvian economy and they integrated demographically with the general populace so it's likely that once the coolie system ends, it'll be replaced by continued immigration from China and a demographic transition from a largely mixed and integrated Chinese populace to a spectrum of integration into Peru now that there's significant Chinese communities that are bringing spouses with them.

I think the overwhelming majority of the Chinese community being demographically entwined with native Peruvians is going to see most Chinese eventually marry into the local demographic base given time; the Chinese community will likely become more 'Chinese' and distinct but inescapably bound to other Peruvians in terms of demographics and marriages between Chinese and non-Chinese will remain common. The Chinese community will also be less 'othered' by Peruvians and so there'll be a disproportionate tolerance for Chinese immigration to Peru compared to its neighbors, even more so than OTL.

In turn, I think the increased economic prosperity of Peru will help it be a larger target for immigrants than OTL from Europe. Assuming minimal butterflies from continued Chinese immigration, then I'd expect a very large number of Chinese to make their way to Peru over the course of the late 19th century onwards every time there's political upheaval in China due to being the only country in the Western hemisphere where Chinese would be 'welcome'(relatively).

End result, I think you can significantly increase Peru's population than OTL. I'm talking a doubling. I'd also expect a majority of the Peruvian population to have a Chinese ancestor by the present day.

 

[FernandoPerla]

It's not hard to keep the Chinese immigration flowing. Either avoid the War of the Pacific or have the Peruvians win, meaning that the coolie system stays in place for longer.

How could a Peruvian defeat against Chile have been avoided? Allying with Argentina instead of Bolivia? Not honoring the defensive treaty with Bolivia? Arming the country conveniently before the war?

In turn, I think the increased economic prosperity of Peru will help it be a larger target for immigrants than OTL from Europe. Assuming minimal butterflies from continued Chinese immigration, then I'd expect a very large number of Chinese to make their way to Peru over the course of the late 19th century onwards every time there's political upheaval in China due to being the only country in the Western hemisphere where Chinese would be 'welcome'(relatively).

End result, I think you can significantly increase Peru's population than OTL. I'm talking a doubling. I'd also expect a majority of the Peruvian population to have a Chinese ancestor by the present day.

How do you picture the demographics of Peru today, according to the fictional scenario?

 

[FernandoPerla]

I actually really like the idea of Chinese, Japanese and Koreans in Peru acting as an analogue to Germans, Italians and Poles in the US. Overall I think that Peru could hugely benefit from this immigration just as the US and Canada did from Europe.

I think that, if Europeans emigrated to the Americas (most of all, to the United States, southern Brazil, and Argentina) from the 19th century onward, through the Atlantic, East Asians could have come to Peru through the Pacific, in larger numbers than in our time line. As they emigrated to California and Hawaii.

Anyway, I think the War of the Pacific could be avoided and after 1880, Peru could get a half decent government. It doesn't have to be perfect, but just a government that doesn't go to war, is stable and invests in modernising agriculture and railways. After 1880 new transport methods would allow for hundress of thousands of Chinese immigrants to arrive in Peru. I think they would definitely help in helping Peru become more stable due to more economic development. I'm not sure if the country could avoid civil wars though

How could the Saltpeter War have been avoided?
Which civil wars do you refer to?

 

[EMT]

How could a Peruvian defeat against Chile have been avoided? Allying with Argentina instead of Bolivia? Not honoring the defensive treaty with Bolivia? Arming the country conveniently before the war?

Not too sure on this one because I honestly don't know much about it. But with respect to demographics,resources and wealth, either Peru(on land/sea) or Bolivia(land) should be more than capable of defeating the Chileans if they have the right prep and the right leaders, and that's individually. That they didn't speaks more to the chronic mismanagement of both countries than it does of Chileans have any systemic advantages; Chile gets props from me for that war for winning what on paper should have been an unwinnable war.

How do you picture the demographics of Peru today, according to the fictional scenario?

I imagine it being something like 6-10% Chinese as in unmixed Chinese, 70-75% mestizo, 1% black, 4% white, 10-12% Amerindian, and the remainder being distinct standalone groups in small numbers such as Japanese, Christians from the Middle East, Jews, and other Asians such as Filipinos, Koreans, and Vietnamese. I'd expect a population of at least 60 million in such a scenario, presuming that Peru manages to avoid some but not all of its economic woes and stays an immigration target for Asians into the modern day.

 

[FernandoPerla]

I imagine it being something like 6-10% Chinese as in unmixed Chinese, 70-75% mestizo, 1% black, 4% white, 10-12% Amerindian, and the remainder being distinct standalone groups in small numbers such as Japanese, Christians from the Middle East, Jews, and other Asians such as Filipinos, Koreans, and Vietnamese. I'd expect a population of at least 60 million in such a scenario, presuming that Peru manages to avoid some but not all of its economic woes and stays an immigration target for Asians into the modern day.

From the Latino Peruvian population, how many of them do you calculate would have Chinese ancestry?
And, as for Japanese immigration, do you think there would have been a way to encourage it?

 

[EMT]

From the Latino Peruvian population, how many of them do you calculate would have Chinese ancestry?
And, as for Japanese immigration, do you think there would have been a way to encourage it?

There's no real way to calculate it, everything I said was gut feelings about trends and scenarios. But I'd imagine half the mestizo populace having a Chinese ancestor by the modern day due to how miscegenation may as well be considered the Peruvian national pastime and OTL's trends with most of the Chinese coolies intermarrying due to being men.

I don't know how this would affect Japanese immigration other than being likely to be larger than OTL due to the continued lack of barriers to entry compared to other Latin American states. While yes, it was encouraged to compensate for lost Chinese immigrants after the ban OTL, Peru with a presumably improved economic situation would have other factors that would make it attractive to immigrants. I don't think Chinese-Japanese dynamics in East Asia would affect migration from Japan to Peru, beyond Japanese and Chinese being distinct in how they weave into Peruvian society, ie the former rarely marries outside of their community while the latter does so regularly.