East Asian discovery of the New World

[Elfwine]

Hmm, you know I never established the 'Author' of that little tidbit. I may or may not had in mind someone who never actually had been there at all.

The problem is that said little tidbit is what we have presenting why the guy in question didn't take one look at the area and didn't do a Loony Tunes style "sailing back the other direction at doubled speed" reaction.

So whether or not the "author" of that tidbit knew diddly squat, the person writing that should before claiming that there's anything there worth the trouble of getting off the ships longer than it takes to get fresh water.

 

[Malta]

The problem is that said little tidbit is what we have presenting why the guy in question didn't take one look at the area and didn't do a Loony Tunes style "sailing back the other direction at doubled speed" reaction.

So whether or not the "author" of that tidbit knew diddly squat, the person writing that should before claiming that there's anything there worth the trouble of getting off the ships longer than it takes to get fresh water.

Maybe you should read the TL then?

 

[Zuvarq]

There's a line between alternate history and fantasy.

And when someone describes the San Francisco Bay Area (speaking as a native of that region) as "(the) possibilities of the usefulness of the Bay Area became abundant due to the nature of the geographical stronghold of the position.", I call it fantasy.

Is SF Bay not one of the best natural harbors in the Pacific? No dredging is required to make it into a naval stronghold.

 

[Elfwine]

Is SF Bay not one of the best natural harbors in the Pacific?

Why would you want a harbor on the (relative to China) eastern side of the Pacific?

That's the problem I have. Sure if you're establishing California it makes sense (although even there only if you expect to be trading by sea from that point, as opposed to say OTL Spain's efforts) - but it doesn't make sense to establish California because of the Bay Area.

Not when China has little interest in settler colonies - which are hard to establish and not very profitable in the short run ("generations later" is Civilization thinking, not mortal merchant thinking) even if they survive.

 

[Grey Wolf]

EVERYONE has something to trade. Sealskins and wooden totems were traded. Tobacco and coca were traded. Unusual shells and animal pelts were traded. The value is a combination of it being different enough that it will sell, or useful enough that people will want it, or if they have to of it being something they can sell anyway.

Trade is equally a matter of getting rid of what you carry for what you think is a reasonable amount - the Carthaginians used to have a silent trade with more primitive peoples, placing goods on tables and withdrawing and seeing if the buyers offered enough to make the sale worthwhile. If yes, they'd take the money, if no, they'd withdraw again and let the buyer up the offer.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Zuvarq]

Why would you want a harbor on the (relative to China) eastern side of the Pacific?

That's the problem I have. Sure if you're establishing California it makes sense (although even there only if you expect to be trading by sea from that point, as opposed to say OTL Spain's efforts) - but it doesn't make sense to establish California because of the Bay Area.

Not when China has little interest in settler colonies - which are hard to establish and not very profitable in the short run ("generations later" is Civilization thinking, not mortal merchant thinking) even if they survive.

If the Chinese are colonizing the West Coast of North America, their priorities (in no particular order) are:
- Acquiring gold and silver from Mesoamerica.
- Colonizing coastal regions, because those are the most habitable and agriculturally productive in the region.
- Repairing and resupplying ships, who have taken an extraordinarily long journey, even if they already rebased at Hawaii or British Columbia. Also the fastest method of travel is by ship.
- Trading with the natives.
- Defending against natives, as well as possible pirates from Baja, the Sea of Cortez, mountainous coasts in Mesoamerica, or the Pacific Northwest.

Mesoamerican metals are the top priority. Since coastal travel is the safest and Baja only has a few good places to put ports, what's between the Old World and Mesoamerica? California. What's the best, largest, most defensible natural harbor in California? SF Bay.

 

[smjb]

Yes, but is what the Americans have to trade worth the trans-Pacific trip?

EDIT: ninja'd.

 

[Malta]

Not when China has little interest in settler colonies - which are hard to establish and not very profitable in the short run ("generations later" is Civilization thinking, not mortal merchant thinking) even if they survive.

What is China at this time period is the Ming Dynasty which was rather bipolar when it comes to the issue of trade. Open trading and relations was halted by a short isolationist period until everyone realized that it was ruining the economy followed by re-opening foreign trade and increasingly corrupt Emperors and officials who could do whatever they wanted. All spliced in with periods of civil unrest, economic success, economic collapse, invasion, and so forth. Not to mention the Overseas Chinese populations who could also do what they wanted.

 

[Zuvarq]

Yes, but is what the Americans have to trade worth the trans-Pacific trip?

Gold and silver is definitely worth trading. Especially if the Chinese conquer or vassalize a Mesoamerican empire, which would only take several hundred Chinese.

 

[Malta]

Gold and silver is definitely worth trading. Especially if the Chinese conquer or vassalize a Mesoamerican empire, which would only take several hundred Chinese.

You are also missing on the gold that moves on four legs. The Fur Trade.

 

[d32123]

There are quite a few scholars who believe there WAS an ancient Pacific trade route either to West Mexico, or to Peru. These are seen as basically trade exchanges, and apart from the movement of goods, left little lasting impression over the long term.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

By "quite a few scholars" do you mean Gavin Menzies?

 

[Elfwine]

If the Chinese are colonizing the West Coast of North America, their priorities (in no particular order) are:
- Acquiring gold and silver from Mesoamerica.

Good luck with that. It's not impossible as OTL shows, but good luck.

- Colonizing coastal regions, because those are the most habitable and agriculturally productive in the region.

And why would China want settler colonies again?

- Repairing and resupplying ships, who have taken an extraordinarily long journey, even if they already rebased at Hawaii or British Columbia. Also the fastest method of travel is by ship.

Which only makes sense after there's some reason ships are going here.

- Trading with the natives.
- Defending against natives, as well as possible pirates from Baja, the Sea of Cortez, mountainous coasts in Mesoamerica, or the Pacific Northwest.

Trading with natives for . . . what? What is there that's worth this long a trip?

Mesoamerican metals are the top priority. Since coastal travel is the safest and Baja only has a few good places to put ports, what's between the Old World and Mesoamerica? California. What's the best, largest, most defensible natural harbor in California? SF Bay.

Mesoamerican metals are also damn hard to acquire. And I'm at a loss for where China is getting an equivalent to the conquisadors - there isn't a pool of seasoned soldiers and adventurers looking for something to do to draw on the way there was in Western Europe.

What is China at this time period is the Ming Dynasty which was rather bipolar when it comes to the issue of trade. Open trading and exploration was halted by a short isolationist period until everyone realized that it was ruining the economy followed by re-opening foreign trade and increasingly corrupt Emperors and officials who could do whatever they wanted. All spliced in with periods of civil unrest, economic success, economic collapse, invasion, and so forth.

Still not an environment remotely conducive to European-like expeditions - whether privately backed or governmental.

And something I'd note: None of the resources of Mesoamerica are things China knows about. Which means something has to make them be willing to make an enormously long voyage in the first place in search of Heaven-knows-what before they can discover anything justifying a return trip.

 

[Malta]

Does the issue come down to thinking that the people of South East Asia lacked the spirit? Gold, God, and Glory launched the Conquistadors alone. I think similar reasons and more reasons would launch them.

The environment of the Ming Dynasty has plenty of fertile ground for the movement of people, with the exception of a short political period (though does anyone know how well the Black Market prevailed during this period?). The Ming Dynasty had its thriving and disastrous periods which with its complex society and economic structure thriving or burnt to bits would lead many people to want to look somewhere else for a living IF given the opportunity.

A POD involving a Emperor being born who when he was a child looked out into the ocean and had an intense desire to see the otherside would be enough.

My own POD occurs based on the desire for Fish.

 

[Zuvarq]

You are also missing on the gold that moves on four legs. The Fur Trade.

China doesn't get as cold as Europe though, and the center of the populace is in the middle of the country on the coast. The people who would want furs the most would be the 'barbarians' in the north.

 

[smjb]

First I'd like to remind everyone that all I'm asking for is to get someone, anyone, from East Asia to set up shop in some form in the Americas in a world where, for whatever reason, the Europeans didn't do it first. It doesn't strictly speaking have to be the Chinese.

Secondly, and this is the important bit, if it's not possible with, say Ming Dynasty China, it's perfectly permissible to go back and create a POD to create a more suitible foreign policy. So long as the chain of events is plausible, of course.

 

[Zuvarq]

First I'd like to remind everyone that all I'm asking for is to get someone, anyone, from East Asia to set up shop in some form in the Americas in a world where, for whatever reason, the Europeans didn't do it first. It doesn't strictly speaking have to be the Chinese.

Secondly, and this is the important bit, if it's not possible with, say Ming Dynasty China, it's perfectly permissible to go back and create a POD to create a more suitible foreign policy. So long as the chain of events is plausible, of course.

Yuan conquest of Japan.

 

[Flubber]

You are also missing on the gold that moves on four legs. The Fur Trade.

You're also missing the facts that China borders on Siberia and that the OTL North American fur trade didn't take off until European Russian fur stocks collapsed.

As always in thread of this type, the Usual Suspects ignore, either deliberately or otherwise, the reason WHY such explorations take place. There were several very good reasons why the European Age of Exploration took place and none of those reasons apply to China.

As for the usual pathetic excuses about "Herp derp Aztec gold" and "Everyone has something to trade", how would anyone in China even know about Aztec gold or the existence of people who might have goods to trade?

The Europeans were exploring different routes to previously known locations. They already knew the Spice Islands existed, they already knew where silk came from, they already knew what goods would be available if they could only find their way to them. Discovering the Americas was an unintended bonus of Europe's attempts to reach places they already knew about.

Exploration for exploration's sake is a relatively recent development. China isn't going to send a fleet eastward along a 10,000 km great circle route just for shits and giggles. It has to pay and it has to be known to pay.

 

[Elfwine]

Does the issue come down to thinking that the people of South East Asia lacked the spirit? Gold, God, and Glory launched the Conquistadors alone. I think similar reasons and more reasons would launch them.

Spirit isn't the issue. The fact that the situation is not comparable to Europe's is.

The environment of the Ming Dynasty has plenty of fertile ground for the movement of people, with the exception of a short political period (though does anyone know how well the Black Market prevailed during this period?). The Ming Dynasty had its thriving and disastrous periods which with its complex society and economic structure thriving or burnt to bits would lead many people to want to look somewhere else for a living IF given the opportunity.

Somewhere else within China > crossing thousands of miles of ocean to an unknown land.

A POD involving a Emperor being born who when he was a child looked out into the ocean and had an intense desire to see the otherside would be enough

So because of a childish obsession we see the Emperor, despite having more reasons to focus on affairs within and near China than I can count, encourage sailing thousands of miles across the ocean to . . . see the other side.

>(\<

 

[Elfwine]

Exploration for exploration's sake is a relatively recent development. China isn't going to send a fleet eastward along a 10,000 km great circle route just for shits and giggles. It has to pay and it has to be known to pay.

The only thing I can think of would be something like the search for El Dorado - and that's less than likely in this atmosphere, whether isolationist or not, simply because China doesn't need to find great sources of specie - it's getting plenty of that from the existing trade with the West, why head out into the unknown in pursuit of a wild legend?

It barely makes sense for European powers, which generally were shorter on gold and silver.

 

[Malta]

If a guy can get his people to build a massive Tomb for him over the course of years....

The State Government Argument is rather cyclical of itself.

Strong Nation:
For-"We are already awesome, so let us go and take that anyway!"
Against-"We are already so awesome we don't need to look at anything else".

Weak Nation:
For-"We are on the ass end of Europe/Asia/Civilization we have no choice!"
Against-"We don't have the power, Captain!"

The only nation in East Asia that embodies this any more is: Japan. Which throughout its history went on galavanting naval expeditions based on a Strong-Weak Mindset. Why not just do away with the Isolation, then? Therefore we either need a Superpower Korea that dissuades the Hideyoshi Shogunate from attacking or have a Tokugawa Shogunate that is forced into a position where it can't get any value from the 'West' and looks 'East'. To mimic Portugal and Spain.