Easiest Way to butterfly the American Revolution?

This. A major reason the American colonists felt empowered enough to start making demands was when the French were pushed out of North America (ignoring Louisiana) as suddenly there was no more threat of the French constantly allying the Iroquois or whichever tribe it was to attack the British colonies, and thus reliance on British soldiers was minimised. From that point on, the sight of a British soldier became more a symbol of the government protecting its own interests at the expense of the colonies, and less a sign of a motherly Britannia guarding its children against the aggressors they couldn't fight alone.

Talk of a French victory in the 7 Years War making the revolution more likely is premature and perhaps spurious really. Britain wouldn't really shunt the reparations bill onto the colonists, because it never did tax the colonists hard. IIRC the American colonists had to pay something like 10-20% of the taxes that the average Briton at home had to pay, and it would be the Home Islands, which forever shouldered most of the cost of the Empire's administration, which would foot the bill. Even if it did levy taxes on the colonists, the fear of the French - especially a France which had just beaten the British, and thus by extension had beaten the Americans - would force the colonists into the British pocket even more. Declaring independence after a French victory would feel like suicide to the colonists.

Taxation may have been the publicly stated issue, but there was more to it than that. When Lafayette told Rochambeau the ARW was all about the British virtually ignoring their colonies for 150 years, and then, following the 7 Years War, trying to run the Colonies directly from Westminster, he was right. More than than he knew. The Anti-Smuggling Laws that existed in all that time regulating trade between the Colonies and the rest of the Empire were virtually ignored, as all sides were making more $$$ by doing so.

But when the British Government decided to rigorously enforce those laws to support British economic interests back home (supporting British monopolistic practices), it caused an enormous balance-of-trade deficit between the Colonies and Britain, in Britain's favor. And the Colonies didn't have all that much to give in the first place. Between 1763 and 1765, a severe economic depression hit America, as people in America simply didn't have the funds or resources that existed in Britain. As John Hancock once said: "Fortunately, there are not enough men of property in America to be able to dictate policy." In short, one of the reasons taxes were so much less in America was because America was for all intents and purposes a 3rd world country. You can only tax the poor so much.

Even a defeated ARW only means another rebellion further down the line. Did the Irish ever give up, in the long run?
 
One last thing. In that the British were enjoying that trade imbalance with the Colonies, the $$$ was flowing into private hands, not the government's. So as far as London was concerned, the Americans still hadn't paid a cent of "their" war debt. So under the circumstances any demands from Britain for "payments" after 1765 were only going to piss off the colonials to no end, as the cupboard was already relatively bare.
 
@usertron2020

There won't necessarily be a second ARW. If the British learn from the brief war in the colonies, they'll try and make everything beneficial for both sides.

It's entirely possible, of course, that they completely screw up and inspire new Rebels to take up arms.
 
Or if he's captured (or killed) during the Battle of Trenton. According to the infallible Wikipedia, 50 Americans had attacked a Hessian outpost. Washington feared that the Hessians would be put on guard. Assume that a Hessian or two managed to make it back to Trenton and warn the garrison there. Washington killed in the fighting (or captured by the Hessians) and, boom, goodbye Revolution.
Not needed, When Washington started reading the Commanders Mail the next morning, there was a letter on his desk detailing the entire plan of Attack.
The Letter had arrived just as Christmas Eve Dinner was called, The Commander left it on his desk to read the next Morning.
 
@usertron2020

There won't necessarily be a second ARW. If the British learn from the brief war in the colonies, they'll try and make everything beneficial for both sides.

It's entirely possible, of course, that they completely screw up and inspire new Rebels to take up arms.

I wish that could be true. But I just don't see a British Empire pre-1867 with that kind of long-range foresight. The treatment given even to White colonies/possessions left much to be desired. This doesn't count Canada, however. Britain's history with Canada showed that in terms of how Canada was treated by the Empire, it was the Great White North that was the true jewel in the crown. A true model for how an empire should run a colony. Of course, the constant threat of Yankee imperialism that didn't die off until the opening of the Old West tended to keep the British and Canadians as "Comrades-in-arms."

But this positive attitude towards its colonies only came about AFTER America was lost. If the British win the ARW, they could draw the same lessons they drew from every Irish revolt they ever put down. In short, that might makes right, and the colonials are a bunch of weak, cowardly, ungrateful wretches who deserve everything they have coming to them.
 
Taxation may have been the publicly stated issue, but there was more to it than that. When Lafayette told Rochambeau the ARW was all about the British virtually ignoring their colonies for 150 years, and then, following the 7 Years War, trying to run the Colonies directly from Westminster, he was right. More than than he knew. The Anti-Smuggling Laws that existed in all that time regulating trade between the Colonies and the rest of the Empire were virtually ignored, as all sides were making more $$$ by doing so.

But when the British Government decided to rigorously enforce those laws to support British economic interests back home (supporting British monopolistic practices), it caused an enormous balance-of-trade deficit between the Colonies and Britain, in Britain's favor. And the Colonies didn't have all that much to give in the first place. Between 1763 and 1765, a severe economic depression hit America, as people in America simply didn't have the funds or resources that existed in Britain. As John Hancock once said: "Fortunately, there are not enough men of property in America to be able to dictate policy." In short, one of the reasons taxes were so much less in America was because America was for all intents and purposes a 3rd world country. You can only tax the poor so much.

Even a defeated ARW only means another rebellion further down the line. Did the Irish ever give up, in the long run?

this. If you want to butterfly away the ARW, the best way is to have the Brits continue their policy of 'benign neglect', where few taxes were levied, and the ones that were levied were patchily collected, the governors rarely interfered with the local decisions, and smuggling was widely ignored. But there are some long term problems down the road; the American colonists wanted to move faster than the home government wished, clashes with Native Americans were problems, slow immigration that led to lack of labor, and (eventually) lack of representation in the home government. A wise home government could solve all these; an unwise one would likely just kick off a later ARW...
 
this. If you want to butterfly away the ARW, the best way is to have the Brits continue their policy of 'benign neglect', where few taxes were levied, and the ones that were levied were patchily collected, the governors rarely interfered with the local decisions, and smuggling was widely ignored. But there are some long term problems down the road; the American colonists wanted to move faster than the home government wished, clashes with Native Americans were problems, slow immigration that led to lack of labor, and (eventually) lack of representation in the home government. A wise home government could solve all these; an unwise one would likely just kick off a later ARW...

The only problem I see with a (significantly) later ARW is that as long as the colonies were fairly united, due to population growth a significantly later ARW wouldn't be much of a contest.
 
But this positive attitude towards its colonies only came about AFTER America was lost. If the British win the ARW, they could draw the same lessons they drew from every Irish revolt they ever put down. In short, that might makes right, and the colonials are a bunch of weak, cowardly, ungrateful wretches who deserve everything they have coming to them.

Or they could also take the lessons presented to them following the failed Revolution. If they won early enough, I can see some of their OTL policies towards Canada being enacted to keep the Americans happy and in the Empire. But you're right, they could draw the lessons from the Irish revolts.
 
I think this POD actually embitters Americans even more, because they feel like their efforts to defeat the French menace are being sold out by London.

I think you need the French to keep Canada without the colonists feeling that the British government deliberately let them keep Canada.

Well, at the end of the 7YW, Britain had a choice between some sugar-producing Caribbean islands and Canada. They chose Canada, but in ATL, the reverse could keep the colonists more tied to Britain. I did this in Monarchy World, among other things...
 
If the British win the ARW, they could draw the same lessons they drew from every Irish revolt they ever put down. In short, that might makes right, and the colonials are a bunch of weak, cowardly, ungrateful wretches who deserve everything they have coming to them.

This. The Irish comparison is a huge factor in the ARW that modern commentators often overlook.

Especially when looking at the kinds of measures the colonists complained about, our tendency is to say, well, that's not so bad, what are the Americans getting so worked up about. What the Americans were getting worked up about was that, intentionally or not, the UK governing class was starting to act like and lay the legal foundation for treating the American colonies like Ireland. That's something nobody would want for themselves.
 
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