usertron2020
Donor
This. A major reason the American colonists felt empowered enough to start making demands was when the French were pushed out of North America (ignoring Louisiana) as suddenly there was no more threat of the French constantly allying the Iroquois or whichever tribe it was to attack the British colonies, and thus reliance on British soldiers was minimised. From that point on, the sight of a British soldier became more a symbol of the government protecting its own interests at the expense of the colonies, and less a sign of a motherly Britannia guarding its children against the aggressors they couldn't fight alone.
Talk of a French victory in the 7 Years War making the revolution more likely is premature and perhaps spurious really. Britain wouldn't really shunt the reparations bill onto the colonists, because it never did tax the colonists hard. IIRC the American colonists had to pay something like 10-20% of the taxes that the average Briton at home had to pay, and it would be the Home Islands, which forever shouldered most of the cost of the Empire's administration, which would foot the bill. Even if it did levy taxes on the colonists, the fear of the French - especially a France which had just beaten the British, and thus by extension had beaten the Americans - would force the colonists into the British pocket even more. Declaring independence after a French victory would feel like suicide to the colonists.
Taxation may have been the publicly stated issue, but there was more to it than that. When Lafayette told Rochambeau the ARW was all about the British virtually ignoring their colonies for 150 years, and then, following the 7 Years War, trying to run the Colonies directly from Westminster, he was right. More than than he knew. The Anti-Smuggling Laws that existed in all that time regulating trade between the Colonies and the rest of the Empire were virtually ignored, as all sides were making more $$$ by doing so.
But when the British Government decided to rigorously enforce those laws to support British economic interests back home (supporting British monopolistic practices), it caused an enormous balance-of-trade deficit between the Colonies and Britain, in Britain's favor. And the Colonies didn't have all that much to give in the first place. Between 1763 and 1765, a severe economic depression hit America, as people in America simply didn't have the funds or resources that existed in Britain. As John Hancock once said: "Fortunately, there are not enough men of property in America to be able to dictate policy." In short, one of the reasons taxes were so much less in America was because America was for all intents and purposes a 3rd world country. You can only tax the poor so much.
Even a defeated ARW only means another rebellion further down the line. Did the Irish ever give up, in the long run?