Easier Northern victory in ACW, any risk of slavery surviving?

WI either there had been different luck at Manaassa/ Bull run and Richmond fell in 1861 and the rest of the CSA colapsed

OR there had been a more aggressive General at Antitham and Lee had surrendered having had his retreat stopped.

Given the terms of the preliminary Emancipaction proclamation if it were obvius the south was losing some states might have ceased rebellion to keep the rights of the ruling group to own human beings
 
A very serious risk. If the South surrenders before Jan 1, 1863 then slavery survives for a while. I think by 1880 or so it will still be doomed though. Secession is something you can try only once and the North will only get stronger.
 
Yes, indeed. Up to 1864, and late 1864 at that, there was no guarantee of what precisely was going to happen to slavery, though any attempt to reconstruct slavery circa 1863 or later was going to be a horrific nightmare. The commitment to total emancipation was a product of the stubborn refusal of the Confederacy to quit the war.
 
Yes, indeed. Up to 1864, and late 1864 at that, there was no guarantee of what precisely was going to happen to slavery, though any attempt to reconstruct slavery circa 1863 or later was going to be a horrific nightmare. The commitment to total emancipation was a product of the stubborn refusal of the Confederacy to quit the war.

I guess if Little Mac gets elected instead of Lincoln slavery might survive in some form but even then it will be a big uphill struggle. By that time too many Blacks have left the plantations and there are a signifigant number of them armed by then.
 
Note that under the 13th Amendment, the slaves in always loyal Border State Delaware, as well as Kentucky which also chose Union, were manumitted without compensation.

Union taxpayers did pay for manumission of slaves in Washington DC.

What would it take for the slavery to stay in Border States?

What about compensated manumission there?
 
Note that under the 13th Amendment, the slaves in always loyal Border State Delaware, as well as Kentucky which also chose Union, were manumitted without compensation.

Union taxpayers did pay for manumission of slaves in Washington DC.

What would it take for the slavery to stay in Border States?

What about compensated manumission there?

All you need to get compensated manumission is to have the Border States accept Lincoln's offer.
 
Lincoln and other Union leaders would have eventually forced through an amendment banning slavery, as they saw it as the sole cause of the war. In fact, the push to abolish slavery could have nothing to do with the evils of slavery, simply "slavery caused the secession, therefore slavery should be extinguished".

Manumission would almost certainly be compensated (Lincoln actually had plans for the money to be lined up for this), and possibly not instantaneous, but I'd bet on it being abolished before the end of the decade.

The worst result is that control would be handed back to the southern states far more quickly than OTL, leading to even more severe Black Codes and other restrictions on freed slaves in the deep southern states. The Radical Republicans would be much less influential and unable to stop it.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Yes, indeed. Up to 1864, and late 1864 at that, there was no guarantee of what precisely was going to happen to slavery, though any attempt to reconstruct slavery circa 1863 or later was going to be a horrific nightmare. The commitment to total emancipation was a product of the stubborn refusal of the Confederacy to quit the war.
An excellent example of one of History's main lessons: quit while you're ahead.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Perhaps if the Rebs seriously screw up First Bull Run* and prematurely abort the military situation of the Confederacy--leading to a shorter CW--slavery never becomes a core issue for the Union.





*I'm a Northerner, dammit ;)

 
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