Early US win in ARW, how do France & Spain react?

TFSmith121

Banned
Except that:

Its unrealistic to think that Britain would make peace with the Americans without the threat of a European alliance arrayed against them. People can argue that the US could win their independence on their own, but the truth is we could not. Without France, Spain and to a lesser extent the Netherlands adding pressure to London and tying down resources the British could easily devote more and more troops to the Colonial rebellion. I just can't see how a few early American victories would make a large difference without the European powers intervening.

The threat of a European alliance was ALWAYS arrayed against Britain...

The problem in waging a military campaign by any of the European powers in the Western Hemisphere against a local power with the capability of fighting at a technological and organizational level akin to the Europeans (as opposed to the "native" powers in the Western Hemisphere) is, as always, time and distance.

There is a reason the British, French, Spanish, and Portuguese all ended up losing their empires in the Western Hemisphere (or, conversely, all the American republics gained their independence); 3,000 miles is too far to sustain military forces of a size that can maintain control of a rebellious countryside in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth centuries.

Add in the fact the European powers always had more at stake in Europe - and always had neighbors looking to gain an advantage in an era of great power politics - and there's just no way for the European power to generate enough forces to control a "developed" Western Hemisphere society without the consent of the Americans (north and south).

It would cost too much, and for what? The Western Hemisphere nations were all always willing to trade...

Best,
 
The threat of a European alliance was ALWAYS arrayed against Britain...

The problem in waging a military campaign by any of the European powers in the Western Hemisphere against a local power with the capability of fighting at a technological and organizational level akin to the Europeans (as opposed to the "native" powers in the Western Hemisphere) is, as always, time and distance.

Not in the time of the ARW. The American Rebels did not have the technological and organizational level to fight. They had to import most of their arms and had poor leadership and discipline with lukewarm support among the 13 Colonies. Before Yorktown, which was a French-British battle with the Rebels playing only a supporting role contrary to what American propaganda would tell you, there were mutinies in the Rebel armies. They needed help, and lots of them.

This topic is about whether the Rebels could win without foreign involvement, and win as early as possible. With a combination of British determination to hold on the colonies and Rebel weakness, my answer is a big fat no.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Actually, the topic is "Early US win in ARW, how do France & Spain react?"

Not in the time of the ARW. The American Rebels did not have the technological and organizational level to fight. They had to import most of their arms and had poor leadership and discipline with lukewarm support among the 13 Colonies. Before Yorktown, which was a French-British battle with the Rebels playing only a supporting role contrary to what American propaganda would tell you, there were mutinies in the Rebel armies. They needed help, and lots of them.

This topic is about whether the Rebels could win without foreign involvement, and win as early as possible. With a combination of British determination to hold on the colonies and Rebel weakness, my answer is a big fat no.


Actually, the topic is "Early US win in ARW, how do France & Spain react?"...

Not that there is no European support for the rebellion, which of course, there was, even before French troops landed at Newport...and, as noted, before which there were significant US victories over the British, including Boston, Saratoga, and all the rest.

As far as the OP's question, my bet is friendly if correct relations between the Spanish, French, US, and British as "North American" powers pending the Anglo-French wars that began in the 1790s...at which point, all bets are off.

Best,
 
Surrender at Saratoga coupled with a near simultaneous Cannae level defeat at Germantown very well could have brought down the British government and brought Britain to the peace table.

Somewhere in the old posts I have a rather extensive timeline concerning just this. (Warning, it gets a little wanky.)

Remember though that France and Spain were never really pro American independence. They were anti-British and this showed in OTL negotiations .

Benjamin
 
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