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IOTL two of the biggest effects of Columbus’s “discovery” of the New World on the native inhabitants was the introduction of smallpox (which decimated their population) and the horse (which revolutionized their economy and war making ability). With so few people so disorganized post-smallpox, and lacking horses, steel weapons, and gunpowder, the Amerindians weren’t able to put up much of a fight against the European invaders and colonists, with only some tribes of Western North America having enough time after the horse arrived and before the Europeans arrived to make much use of it in defending their sovereignty.

What’s so surprising is that the New World’s first European discovers, the Norse, had ample opportunity to introduce both smallpox and the horse centuries before the Spanish/Portuguese/English/French/etc. arrived in force, yet somehow didn't. I think the effect of either of these, and certainly the two in combination, would have been dramatic for world history.

Horses: The Greenlanders brought the full selection of Old World domesticated animals with them from Europe via Iceland: cows, pigs, sheep, and notably, horses (specifically Icelandic horses, which are small but hardy and rideable).

After the settlements died out (because of the little ice age) wild horses were found in Greenland, the ancestors of those the Norse had brought with them. If they could survive on barren frozen Greenland they certainly would have thrived – just as they did later and do today – on the American mainland. In fact, horses were native to the New World, having gone extinct there only 10k years ago due to Palaeolithic overhunting.

Smallpox: It doesn’t seem possible for smallpox to have reached the New World with Leif Ericson or his immediate successors, as smallpox wasn’t yet endemic among the Norse.

In 1241, however, Iceland was struck by its first epidemic of smallpox, one of the worst ever recorded anywhere. Nearly the entire population of ~70k caught the disease and about one third of them died. Epidemics also occurred in 1257 and 1291.

During this period the Icelanders were still in regular contact with the Greenland Norse, and the Greenlanders had been venturing to North America since the turn of the millennium, and were still doing so long after smallpox reached Iceland:

“One of the most important reports concerning Markland is an entry in the Icelandic Annals from A.D. 1347 referring to a small Greenlandic vessel with a crew of seventeen or eighteen aboard that arrived in Iceland while attempting to return to Greenland from Markland with a load of timber. Because no further details were provided, this reference may indicate that voyages to Markland were relatively common.” -- http://www.mnh.si.edu

That smallpox somehow didn’t reach the New World via Iceland and Greenland is the real wonder.

So…. what would be the effect of this?

- Was there enough time (assuming, say, a transmission around the first Icelandic epidemic) for smallpox to spread through the Americas from the NE coast, do its damage, and allow the population to bounce back with an immunity in time to face off Columbus and Co.?

- Would the combination of the disruption of the smallpox epidemics (affecting some tribes more than other) and the adoption of the horse (adopted by some more quickly) be enough to start consolidating the Amerindians into larger political units able to challenge the Europeans?

- Are there any other Norse technologies that might be usefully adopted and spread? I can’t imagine pigs or cows would be much use or interest to the Indians of Labrador or even Maine, so it’s hard to imagine them spreading. Even the Greenlanders ‘forgot’ how to smelt iron so it’s ASB IMHO to imagine that taking hold among the Amerindians.
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