Early introduction of horses and/or smallpox to the New World?

[stewacide]

IOTL two of the biggest effects of Columbus’s “discovery” of the New World on the native inhabitants was the introduction of smallpox (which decimated their population) and the horse (which revolutionized their economy and war making ability). With so few people so disorganized post-smallpox, and lacking horses, steel weapons, and gunpowder, the Amerindians weren’t able to put up much of a fight against the European invaders and colonists, with only some tribes of Western North America having enough time after the horse arrived and before the Europeans arrived to make much use of it in defending their sovereignty.

What’s so surprising is that the New World’s first European discovers, the Norse, had ample opportunity to introduce both smallpox and the horse centuries before the Spanish/Portuguese/English/French/etc. arrived in force, yet somehow didn't. I think the effect of either of these, and certainly the two in combination, would have been dramatic for world history.

Horses: The Greenlanders brought the full selection of Old World domesticated animals with them from Europe via Iceland: cows, pigs, sheep, and notably, horses (specifically Icelandic horses, which are small but hardy and rideable).

After the settlements died out (because of the little ice age) wild horses were found in Greenland, the ancestors of those the Norse had brought with them. If they could survive on barren frozen Greenland they certainly would have thrived – just as they did later and do today – on the American mainland. In fact, horses were native to the New World, having gone extinct there only 10k years ago due to Palaeolithic overhunting.

Smallpox: It doesn’t seem possible for smallpox to have reached the New World with Leif Ericson or his immediate successors, as smallpox wasn’t yet endemic among the Norse.

In 1241, however, Iceland was struck by its first epidemic of smallpox, one of the worst ever recorded anywhere. Nearly the entire population of ~70k caught the disease and about one third of them died. Epidemics also occurred in 1257 and 1291.

During this period the Icelanders were still in regular contact with the Greenland Norse, and the Greenlanders had been venturing to North America since the turn of the millennium, and were still doing so long after smallpox reached Iceland:

“One of the most important reports concerning Markland is an entry in the Icelandic Annals from A.D. 1347 referring to a small Greenlandic vessel with a crew of seventeen or eighteen aboard that arrived in Iceland while attempting to return to Greenland from Markland with a load of timber. Because no further details were provided, this reference may indicate that voyages to Markland were relatively common.” -- http://www.mnh.si.edu

That smallpox somehow didn’t reach the New World via Iceland and Greenland is the real wonder.

So…. what would be the effect of this?

- Was there enough time (assuming, say, a transmission around the first Icelandic epidemic) for smallpox to spread through the Americas from the NE coast, do its damage, and allow the population to bounce back with an immunity in time to face off Columbus and Co.?

- Would the combination of the disruption of the smallpox epidemics (affecting some tribes more than other) and the adoption of the horse (adopted by some more quickly) be enough to start consolidating the Amerindians into larger political units able to challenge the Europeans?

- Are there any other Norse technologies that might be usefully adopted and spread? I can’t imagine pigs or cows would be much use or interest to the Indians of Labrador or even Maine, so it’s hard to imagine them spreading. Even the Greenlanders ‘forgot’ how to smelt iron so it’s ASB IMHO to imagine that taking hold among the Amerindians.

 

[Tangerine]

As soon as you can get real trading contact between the Native Americans and Europe, the Old World diseases will make the transition. The encounters between the Norse and the natives were (apparently) almost entirely hostile - I doubt the two parties were in sustained close contact long enough to exchange microbes. Add to that the fact that the region they were visiting was lightly and thinly populated. In that sort of situation it's very easy for a really virulent disease to wipe out its hosts before they have a chance to travel far enough to transmit it to another group.

Either way, I think there were earlier periods in history where trading networks could have been set up between the Americas and the Old World. Punic seafarers from Carthage may have made the journey OTL - all you need is for the route they traveled to remain open. The Punic merchants would also probably be more likely to come into contact with the really densely populated parts of the New World, where smallpox would thrive...

 

[tallwingedgoat]

- Was there enough time (assuming, say, a transmission around the first Icelandic epidemic) for smallpox to spread through the Americas from the NE coast, do its damage, and allow the population to bounce back with an immunity in time to face off Columbus and Co.?

Starting from the mid 13th Century smallpox outbreak, figure a hundred years from contact for the native population to reach its low point (90-95% loss). Then a century and a half to rebuild. Population wise I'd say it's not impossible, but they would be almost rebuilding their culture from scratch. There would probably be a lot of nomadic tribes. I'm not sure if sophisticated empires like the Aztecs and Incas would arise.

- Would the combination of the disruption of the smallpox epidemics (affecting some tribes more than other) and the adoption of the horse (adopted by some more quickly) be enough to start consolidating the Amerindians into larger political units able to challenge the Europeans?

I doubt it. Look what happened to the Siberians. They were conquered by the Russians even though the horse and iron were not foreign to them. I think its possible some indigenous societies could hold out, but most of the Americas would still be conquered.

- Are there any other Norse technologies that might be usefully adopted and spread? I can’t imagine pigs or cows would be much use or interest to the Indians of Labrador or even Maine, so it’s hard to imagine them spreading. Even the Greenlanders ‘forgot’ how to smelt iron so it’s ASB IMHO to imagine that taking hold among the Amerindians.

I thought Iron was not lost until much later. Even low quality axes and nails would be revolutionary. It would mean logging, timber houses, furniture, boats. Sheep would be both food and a source for wool, which was made into sail, fishing nets as well as for warmth. Pigs would run feral very quickly. Oxen hide can make good armor. Milk could feed babies. Most of all they could pull the plow, which even if made of wood or stone was a huge advance over a digging stick. Combine that with wheeled carts, oats, barley, wheat, bread making, and you could have a radical different agricultural society. Salting fish would create a new trade commodity. The loom was also unknown to the natives of the northeast.

No less important would be the runic alphabet.

 

[stewacide]

Considering nobody even (definitively) made it to Iceland before the Norse I think a Phoenician trading network reaching to the New World is ASB. Even if they and other pre-Norse mariners had the ability to do it they apparently had no inclination whatsoever.

 

[stewacide]

...I thought Iron was not lost until much later. Even low quality axes and nails would be revolutionary. It would mean logging, timber houses, furniture, boats. Sheep would be both food and a source for wool, which was made into sail, fishing nets as well as for warmth. Pigs would run feral very quickly. Oxen hide can make good armor. Milk could feed babies. Most of all they could pull the plow, which even if made of wood or stone was a huge advance over a digging stick. Combine that with wheeled carts, oats, barley, wheat, bread making, and you could have a radical different agricultural society. Salting fish would create a new trade commodity. The loom was also unknown to the natives of the northeast.

No less important would be the runic alphabet.

The problem as I see is that any technology first has to pass from the Norse to the coastal indians, and from them onto the rest of the Americas. That would seem to preclude anything too complicated (metallurgy, writing, etc) given the small number of Norse and their not-very-close relations with the natives, and also anything that doesn't easily translate to the far Northeastern coast of North America, even if it might readily catch on further south (cows and dairying, the plow, the wheel, Old World crops, etc.)

I focused on the horse since it's so dead simple, and can even be acquired 'accidentally' if Norse horses are lost or stolen.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

If you want to transplant horses, you need a few dozen for genetic variation. This happened eventually in Argentina. A few dozen escaped at once and grew to a population of a million Criollos. So a single shipwreck now and then wouldn't do it. Another thing is, unless the natives see others riding them, the horse is just going to be another game animal. The natives of Argentina hunted Criollo horses for meat rather than try to tame them. They would have no reason to think that was possible.

The only way IMO to turn Native Americans into a mounted people would be if there was at least a semi-permanent Norse presence in America. If we're solely reliant on the accidental exchange, I think at best you can hope for is some grain or turnip seeds getting into NA hands.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

Actually I changed my mind. Smallpox alone could not cause a 90%+ population drop, so Native Americans would be less hard hit than I previously anticipated.

 

[NothingNow]

Starting from the mid 13th Century smallpox outbreak, figure a hundred years from contact for the native population to reach its low point (90-95% loss). Then a century and a half to rebuild. Population wise I'd say it's not impossible, but they would be almost rebuilding their culture from scratch. There would probably be a lot of nomadic tribes. I'm not sure if sophisticated empires like the Aztecs and Incas would arise.

The sedentary cultures would still exist in the Americas for the most part, especially if there weren't pigs coming along for the ride. Smallpox is bad enough without Zoonotic diseases coming in afterward and offing the people who managed to survive. That's probably what finished off the Mound-builder societies, given the timing of the Narváez expedition and Ponce de Leon, and the reports from the survivors of both, versus those of later groups.

 

[stewacide]

Actually I changed my mind. Smallpox alone could not cause a 90%+ population drop, so Native Americans would be less hard hit than I previously anticipated.

Any of the Old World diseases which were present among the Norse could have been transferred to the Native Americans in the same way I suppose. The problem would seem to be the small number of Greenland Norse making it hard for disease to remain endemic among them, although Iceland would seem to have enough people (several tens of thousands) to keep most of them going, and regular contact with Europe.

Is there any way to have more direct Iceland-Vinland contact without a radical departure from OTL? Would it have made sense for the Icelanders to, say, voyage to North America to harvest lumber and build ships? Or perhaps to salt fish caught on the Grand Banks?

 

[NothingNow]

Any of the Old World diseases which were present among the Norse could have been transferred to the Native Americans in the same way I suppose. The problem would seem to be the small number of Greenland Norse making it hard for disease to remain endemic among them, although Iceland would seem to have enough people (several tens of thousands) to keep most of them going, and regular contact with Europe.

Is there any way to have more direct Iceland-Vinland contact without a radical departure from OTL? Would it have made sense for the Icelanders to, say, voyage to North America to harvest lumber and build ships? Or perhaps to salt fish caught on the Grand Banks?

It wouldn't be that odd or impossible. IIRC it happened in OTL, both with fishermen coming onshore to salt cod, and The Greenlanders and Icelanders did harvest Lumber from Labrador.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

What about diffusion? Couldn't Greenland Inuits spread disease, horses, iron making to the mainland?

 

[The Ubbergeek]

Don,t forget the cooling of Grooenland climate.. horses will die...

 

[mosodake]

What about diffusion? Couldn't Greenland Inuits spread disease, horses, iron making to the mainland?

With viral diseases, especially those that give lifelong immunity to those afflicted, by the time the Inuit were well enough to sail to the mainland the virus would have died out among their population. Their villages were not big enough to continue the cycle of infection, transmission, and immunity that diseases need to stay alive. I doubt any of the people in northern North America lived in populations large enough to sustain smallpox. Diseases with animal hosts such as influenza would fare better.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

What about instead of smallpox, the Vikings introduce pigs into North America. This should at least give the NA some resistance to zoonotic diseases.

 

[Sven]

Don,t forget the cooling of Grooenland climate.. horses will die...

If the Greenlanders had a seasonal or semi-permanent settlement in Vinland, and if they had managed to broker better relations with the Native Americans, then the Vinland settlement could feasibly become a refuge for Greenlanders when the Little Ice Age started causing their crops to fail.

The Norse in Vinland will probably become isolated from Europe, at least to some extent, and their culture, livestock and diseases could easily disseminate and syncretize with the Native American cultures. Under these conditions, it wouldn't be too farfetched for several advances, like horseback riding, ironworking or futhark, to catch on in the Northeast. The Vikings may possibly be absorbed into the Native American gene pools and societies, but they'll leave a few indelible marks that might just improve the Native Americans' chances of standing up to the European colonists a few hundred years later.

 

[Sven]

I doubt it. Look what happened to the Siberians. They were conquered by the Russians even though the horse and iron were not foreign to them. I think its possible some indigenous societies could hold out, but most of the Americas would still be conquered.

Yes, but invading Siberia is a lot cheaper than invading North America. Whereas the Russians in the 1580's were able to send 500 well-armed soldiers with hundreds of support personnel into Siberia, the English were only able to send 100 or so settlers to North America at a time. Also, the early settlements in North America were hammered with all kinds of problems: they were always one mishap away from total collapse.

If the Native Americans had had horses and iron, as well as enhanced disease resistance, Jamestown and Plymouth would probably have gone the way of Roanoke, The French coureurs de bois would not have been able to penetrate so far into the countryside, andHenry Hudson may not have returned a favorable report to the Dutch. In the face of repeated failures like these, colonial ventures into North America would become a very hard sell for stockholders in Europe. Conquistador-like movements might emerge, but the fur trade and farmland would hardly justify the effort the way the silver and gold justified the Spanish conquests.

Personally, I just don't see colonialism taking off in North America like it did in OTL.