Early Industrial Revolution

@Dunning Kruger , thanks for the reply. You have a point, in the 1200's there wasn't an extensive middle class in Song Dynasty China. There was however an upward trend for income for its citizens including peasants. Peasants had gone from living at a near subsistence level wage to about 5 times that with the trend indicating further improvements. Peasants were buying products that they could not have before and there was evidence that citizens were investing in companies involved in foreign trade. There are reports of quite high returns on these investments. Perhaps given more than a century this trend of increasing income could have resulted in an extensive middle class? The increased income could be invested in those foreign expeditions mentioned OTL, amplifying the wealth of Song's citizens. Perhaps the demand for products by this increasing middle class, particularly textiles as you mentioned could be enough for the industrial revolution?

As for the other items, Song China had burnable resources such as coal and oil. Although most of the coal was in Northern China there were still quite extensive amounts in the South. China did have experience with mechanization, intellectual background and a willingness to experiment. The guilds that had formed might be able to fund any inventors with a good idea.

I'll admit that the scenario's still a work in progress though :p Appreciate the feedback.
 
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Thanks for the feedback guys. Onto another region of the world. In the next section we'll assume the Byzantine Empire is still around and covers roughly OTL Greece and Anatolia. Other than that the POD is in the year 1211 and involves no black death or continued Mongol influence after 1241 outside Central Asia. The Mongol conquests of the Middle East after 1241 are also butterflied away. This means that the European nations from 1211 populate the start of this scenario.

Let's assume that due to events elsewhere in the world technological development has roughly doubled after the 1300's leading up to Europe's Industrialization in the year 1530. The Industrial Revolution starts in China but the knowledge needed for it is spreading around the world. Now that the knowledge for industrialization is coming from an external source who in Europe industrializes first? Would it still be England?

We've discussed the factors for a nation to be the first worldwide to industrialize but if somebody else industrializes first perhaps it might change things a bit. They wouldn't need to invent the needed machines, simply copy existing designs. They also would be highly successful industrialized nations setting an example for the others.
 
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Britain started the industrial revolution OTL in part because they had the necessary factors. These same factors make it more likely for Britain to adopt an industrial revolution from elsewhere so it would still likely be England first.
 
I'm back folks :)

@duckie, good point. Perhaps if this timeline's Europe is being pulled along by developments elsewhere we'd see either the states of the Italian Peninsula or the Byzantine Empire (at least what's left of it) industrialize first?

This timeline has no Ottoman Empire. How likely would it be for the Byzantine Empire to become an early adopter of gunpowder in a similar vein to the OTL Ottomans? How successful might they be then?

@Windows95, the world looks pretty weird indeed. There's a single World War in the late 1500's at which time aircraft and radio are invented. Space age begins some time in the early 1600's and the singularity occurs in the late 1600's. There's two main groups of stories, the more overtly Alternate History part and a Sci Fi part. Although they're set in the same universe the connection is not made overt in the Sci Fi part. There's a new calendar and some time separating the two so I might be able to separate the two continuities if I want to later on.

In the late 1700's humanity has begun construction on its first Dyson Swarm, a working warp engine is developed in the 1900s but it's so expensive to build and run that each one needs to be recharged at a Dyson Swarm (they get cheaper and more numerous as the centuries tick on). Gardener ships abound which go from system to system setting up colonies for humanity with a small population staying behind to continue the journey. Gardeners build infrastructure for the colony before journeying onward. In 2017 humanity is mostly trans-human and has expanded across a modest chunk of the Milky Way. By the time we reach the later parts of the Sci Fi portion (round about 2017 and beyond) an FTL communications network connects the colonies of humanity. Combined with the trans human nature of humanity the large distances of an intra-galactic civilization become trivial as people can transmit themselves as data quickly to a location on the other side of developed space. Gardeners never truly leave anyone behind anymore as they can freely move between their gardens and any of the fleets.

Humanity progressively becomes more Eldritch as the centuries tick by and by 2017 no alien contact has been made, only extremely rare cases of microbial life are found.
 
I my timeline I've got diseases introduced by accident into the Americas by non European first contact killing off a large amount of the native Americans. Although the Europeans eventually arrive and begin their invasion, North America has 150 years to prepare. The entire recovery phase of North Americans is during this timeline's industrial revolution. I was thinking that a small population with a high relative wealth (parts of the America are rich in resources or can be used to grow sugar) might result in high cost for individual labor and could be the perfect set up for the Americas to industrialize. They wouldn't have to invent anything, they'd simply have to be proactive enough to end somebody to an Industrialized nation and start copying/buying their equipment.

Although this timeline does involve an early industrialization of China, it isn't a China dominates the world timeline. They're simply a convenient early start to push everybody forward. An international trade network spreads knowledge and tech out from whomever develops it at great speed. Hopefully this results in power being more evenly spread across the world than OTL, resulting in a timeline where no one region can dominate. How easily could China's new inventions leave the country?
 
Thinking about the plausibility of one part of my scenario.

Was the fall of the Jin Dynasty to the Mongols a highly likely outcome after Genghis Khan's initial ascent to power as the head of the Mongol horde? Even if striking out into Mongolia is unlikely how likely would a scenario be where they simply survive the Mongols? The Jin were ruled by what was once a nomadic horse culture just like the Mongols. Even though they're now settled they've got good cavalry and a large, wealthy territory fortified by walls. They were powerful enough to force Northern Song off a good chunk of their territory. The Mongols took decades to deal with what was left afterwards. Perhaps they just hold out and deny the Mongols the wealth of their region (significantly weakening them) until the Europeans and peoples of the Middle East can dispense an ass kicking (which might weaken them even worse)?
 
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Regarding an early Industrial revolution, how about Europe? If Britain had not industrialized would another nation just have taken their place? Perhaps Germany or France or would industrialization be significantly delayed?

How about if we just look at this from a tech point of view? Was tech a big limiter in industrialization? Was England really that much more advanced than it's other neighbors in Europe? We have a few social and political reasons given why Song China could not industrialize. If we had a POD so far back that China during that period was a completely different nation that met all these barriers but was technologically the same as Song China with the same GDP per capita and GDP growth rate, would it be able to industrialize?

Regarding GDP, what was England's GDP during the 1760's and was this really much higher than its European competitors? Could Spain ever have beaten Britain to Industrialization?
 
Regarding GDP, what was England's GDP during the 1760's and was this really much higher than its European competitors? Could Spain ever have beaten Britain to Industrialization?

According to Angus Maddison:

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In terms of per cap GDP England wasn’t that much ahead of other parts of Europe. But it did have very sophisticated banking, stockmarket, corporate law and patent law architecture. It also had high human development. By the 18th century the British government has long aligned the interests of private corporations with the long term goal of the state. For example already in Elizabethan times the government and church were paying for free and extensive education for the public. This had roots going back to the Reformation. Catholic countries like Spain did not emphasize literacy as the Latin Bible was read to the masses by the clergy rather than read by individuals.

In the modern world all nations understand national power depends on the government investing in education, in scientific research, in strategic industries like semiconductor/super-computing. That economic policy has to incentivize corporations to build infrastructure and capture international markets according to the national interest. Back in the Industrial Revolution arguably only Great Britain fully implemented recognizably modern national economic policy.
 
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Alcsentre Calanice

Gone Fishin'
Industrialization does not equal steam power anymore than powered flight equals rocketry.

Maybe industrialization does not equal steam power, but it certainly equals easily available sources of energy. And while water and wind power are a good start, especially if you make water power as efficient as possible by using aqueducts and dams to guarantee a steady amount of water and make the location of use independent of rivers and streams, they are nowhere as powerful and constant as steam power.

You can fuel industrialization with wind and water power up to a certain level; you can, for example, run textile industry with water wheels, as Great Britain did in the first phase of the Industrial Revolution. But steam power (or electric power; but I consider electric power to be more complex than steam power, and thus unlikely to be "tamed" before steam power) is indispensable for any major progess in transportation or more complex industries, since steam engines can be more powerful and more efficient than water wheels.

Now it would be an interesting scenario in which industrialization completly bypasses the steam engine and goes directly from water power to electricity. But is it likely? A steam engine might be a very complex machine, but electricity is even more difficult to understand and to control.
 
Maybe industrialization does not equal steam power, but it certainly equals easily available sources of energy. And while water and wind power are a good start, especially if you make water power as efficient as possible by using aqueducts and dams to guarantee a steady amount of water and make the location of use independent of rivers and streams, they are nowhere as powerful and constant as steam power.

You can fuel industrialization with wind and water power up to a certain level; you can, for example, run textile industry with water wheels, as Great Britain did in the first phase of the Industrial Revolution. But steam power (or electric power; but I consider electric power to be more complex than steam power, and thus unlikely to be "tamed" before steam power) is indispensable for any major progess in transportation or more complex industries, since steam engines can be more powerful and more efficient than water wheels.

Now it would be an interesting scenario in which industrialization completly bypasses the steam engine and goes directly from water power to electricity. But is it likely? A steam engine might be a very complex machine, but electricity is even more difficult to understand and to control.

People are an excellent source of energy.
 
All you need for industrialisation is actually a stimulus to do so. It's as simple as that.

For England the stimulus was money or to be precise-corporate greed. This nation was very different from all other European nations of the period (the period after the 100 years war till World War One) because the government was actively seeking ways to generate more profit with less resources. After the lost of Normandy and all the fertile land outside the British islands the crown had only 2 options-stagnate and be satisfied with whatever it already has-like other places in Europe did or find new ways to generate profit other than war on its neighbours. They chose the second and it lead them to the industrial revolution and first place in the power structure of the world. If you start to think about it in detail it was the lost of the 100 years war that propelled England to industrialize, albeit not directly. The medieval person wasn't used to the idea of searching ways to make production more efficient or any other interests in mechanisation in particular. For him money was equal to land (or in less direct ways-people), so the main focus for gaining wealth was through territorial expansion. This is why the military had such a prominent role in society and why people viewed land in such high regard. It was assumed the one with the land was the one with the money. Traders and other businessmen were seen as inferior to the knights and the noblemen ad only a few city states in Italy were able to generate large profits without controlling a lot of land. But in their cases wealth was equated more with their naval, therefore military, power, not industry. This is why industrialization was impossible without the reformation.

But when the English were thrown out of Europe they didn't had the option of acquiring more fertile land any more. The crown new that if they wanted to achieve high status against the other nation (at that time more powerful than England) they had to search for other options. First, they saw what Spain and Portugal did in the New World and decided to acquire a lot of land there-viable option to European conquest. But if you think about it, it was still the medieval mindset in action behind these ambitions. The goal was to get land because land=wealth, I mean arable land. It was only after they realized they could make a profit out of goods in short supply, e.g. wool, sugar, tobacco, cotton, etc., with the rise of capitalism, that they started to turn their attention away from the land=wealth strategy. Only after the market was there did the crown knew to put efforts into the manufacturing, instead of conquest. It was this mindset that brought the Industrial revolution and turned England invincible, not the focus on any particular technology or resource. So, what you need to search for early industrialization isn't (at least not only, not as key factor) any particular technology or resource, but a change in the mindset of particular people-a change which can drive them to maximise the production of particular resource intensively, not extensively. Extensive manufacturing can be easy to achieve if you focus only on a particular aspect of production. Actually, this is what most people throughout history have done-they thought land makes you rich because if you control land you control the access of people to resources. That is why the acquirement of land was the central pillar in ancient societies. The competitor of land were people themselves, hence slavery made you a rich man. Other options were gold, cattle, silk and whatever but the attention was always on a particular resource, on a particular facet of economy that was equalized with wealth in general.

The particular case of the British is the fact they lost the 100 year war and so they lost the ability to acquire new lands in this old-fashioned way. They had to either adapt or fade into obscurity. Actually, if you read the pages of European history you would find many example of nations that lost their place in history after sound military defeats. Where is Burgundy now? How about hungary? Where are the Teutons? The league of the Northern city-states? And so on. If the English had stuck with the old ways of thinking land=wealth there would be no industrial revolution now. Actually, probably we would still be living in a kind of "dark ages" where the dominant religion would have been the protestant form of Christianity. There would be no computers, no Internet, no electricity, not even steam power. Probably there would be gunpowder and we would know where the New World is but none of the technological nations of the west would be here. For an industrial revolution to happen the most important thing is a change in the thought process of a society, not its knowledge, technology, access to resources and so on. The English changed their thinking about wealth and money when they were no longer able to conquer Europe and when they saw how much money the Dutch made from trade of rare goods. It made them think first and foremost in the terms of production and profit, not in terms of land and control as did everybody before them. It was this "paradigm-shift" that opened the wy for industry and made them the masters of the world. They were the first to do it, but without them it would probably have never happened in our timeline. If you think about it before the English capitalism was born (and they weren't calling it capitalism back then) the dominant mindset was that gold equalled wealth, so all Europe was in the race to acquire more gold. It was an extension of the old ways of thinking ownership of resources equalled their value. No matter what it is-land, slaves, gold, cattle, silk or whatever until you think the fact you own something gives it intrinsic value, you would be stuck with the same old production methods and feel the need to appropriate, not invent. Only the English saw through this delusion and understood the value of resource is determined not by its passion, but by its use. This is why they rejected mercantilism and invented capitalism in the form we know it today. The big discovery of Adam Smith wasn't the virtue of hard labour and free market but the fact he realized (as well as many other people of the age) gold was as worth as the produce it can buy, therefore one must strive to improve the production of goods, instead of the acquirement of resources. It is what drove the industrial revolution and it's what made England great. Not the ships of the navy, not the science, not the free market itself, not even the steam engine. All these are post factum consequences of the realization one must improve its production methods, not the conquest of resources. The reformation helped to form this view but it wasn't critical. What was critical was the "paradigm shift" that occurred under capitalism.

I know many of you will disagree with my stand but if you give it a second thought you would understand industrial revolution could have happened many times throughout history, but it didn't because the people weren't ready to make this assumption, because they weren't ready to start thinking differently about economy and its place in society. For example, the ancient Greece could have started industrialising many times during antiquity, hell, if it comes to this Athens could have become the first industrial powerhouse in history. They just had to put the talents of their mathematicians in use to produce the first steam engines in history. They surely could have used them on their ships. They had the knowledge to utilise steam power and the need of ships able to sail under all conditions. Why didn't they tried to power a boat by steam? China could have industrialized for more than 1000 years of its history-surely lack of knowledge or weak economy wasn't the problem. China had shitloads of resources and able craftsmen. But they didn't had the mindset to ask the emperor to allow them to use machines for production, instead of people. They couldn't think of human labour as limiting factor in production and sure as hell didn't felt there was any need to disturb the natural Order of things by increasing efficiency. In their mindset production was a function of skill and those who were more skilled needed to get more money, not the ones who knew how to manipulate people more effectively with machines and the use of manufacturing. Chinese man couldn't imagine industrialization since such a heavy use of machines making the human efforts indiscriminate with respect to others would have been an unbearable blow to Natural Order of things. The emperor could have never allowed it! The same goes for the papacy, or at least I think so. In my own research, for example, I try to make the point that people had the knowledge required to industrialise and create science as we know it for thousands of years, even as early as the iron age, but they didn't because they couldn't imagine a different kind of society, because they couldn't bare the thought of a major change in the way they look at the world. If you think about it, we aren't that far away from them, either. Who of you could think of fundamentally different ways to organise society than what we already know? Can you think of society organised in forms different than democracy or monarchy? Can you imagine economic system different than capitalism or socialism? Can you imagine an army different than the centralized command structure we know today? I have the observation that human being are surprisingly inefficient at imagination when it comes to alternative forms of organization of society. On particular such form, a particular tradition tends to "stick" for very long periods of time, for generations and very few people questioned it once they have grown with it. And even those who question it, do it without realizing better alternatives exist and just go on living realizing full well the wrongness of their ways. For example, people knew slavery was bad both at Athens, Rome and the US south but few did anything against it because they couldn't imagine other ways to achieve cheap labour. I could argue that even with all of their knowledge in philosophy and mathematics the Greeks and the Romans chose to "forget" labour can be done more efficiently by machines instead of thinking what to do with the slaves. No one wanted to face the social backlash in these kinds of societies. The same is true for monarchy and democracy. Why it need to go to revolution in France? Why many primitive people never adopted agriculture even when faced with societies that already had it? The list can go on and on-the important point is in order for industrialization to happen people need to have a kind of "paradigm shift" first which can make them think in new ways whereby they can change society to a level making the industrialization possible. Industrialization is one of these very few instances where society can't do it without shifting concepts of values, relations amongst people and even culture an language. In order to industrialize you need to change completely. If a society isn't willing to do these changes, than it goes to anarchy and can even disintegrate. This is why industrialization takes such a great toll on primitive societies not used to western values. This is why Europe was able to colonize the world. This is why China and India lagged so much (and are still lagging). This is why Africa fell to pieces and the arabs prefer brutal theocracies to modern liberal industrial nations-people there simply can't think in terms of the same value systems the west does. industrialization is impossible without "paradigm shifts" throughout society and the ability to handle this shift is far more important for a society than its technology or the available resources.

Thus, England didn't industrialise because of the availability of coal or iron ore, but because it was ready to make the transition from medieval mindset to one of flourishing capitalism and the value of individuality. All the rest of the world wasn't! It's what gave England the cutting edge to the rest of the world and it's what is still keeping it afloat (despite now facing great perils). If you know history well you would understand it! If it weren't for the lost in the 100 years war and the reformation I doubt the English would have taken this "paradigm shift". it was really too much to ask for any nation. For anyone in the world. I think the world of English victory in the 100 year war or of England still under Catholicism would have been far worse than what we have now. I think without these major events to prime people to start thinking differently the world as we know it would have never happened. I think in such events there would have been no drive to increase the efficiency of production and still trade, e.g. gold and land would have been the most important resources, not manufactured goods like wool, cotton, iron, glass, you name it. Than there would have been no drive to increase the efficiency of production and the military aristocracy would still have been considered the most important part of society. In such a world the New World would have been looted to a far extent but probably the natives would have found ways to counter the Europeans by now and they themselves would have created their own kingdoms and empires in the New World. China and India would have been well as they were in the age of Modernity and the West would have hardly had the resources needed to subjugate them. Guns and cannons would probably have been the most advanced technology, along with few other manufacturing processes with limited level of mechanization like cotton, wool and other cloths manufacturing and we would still be glorifying or emperors and their bloodlines. To be short-without the "paradigm shift" of a nation acquiring technology to increase efficiency, to increase the intensity of production, instead the resources available there would have never been industrialization! If you want to see where early industrialization is possible, see what are the circumstances requiring such "paradigm shift". Under what conditions society would be ready to dispense with its old social institutions and norms to acquire new ones fostering he technological infrastructure for efficient production?

I can give you 2 examples of recent (relatively) history-the industrialization of the USSR in the 1920s and 1930s was something the world has never seen before. It was actually the greatest industrialization in history in terms of efficiency and growth of output. The Russians did it not because of capitalism and the profit motive but because of communism and the need they felt to defend their country. They managed to do it because they were able to both mobilize all the resources of their country (something which the tsar could have done before, too) and because they manage to give their people a new set of values through communism. I can argue if there was no communism and Russian revolution, Russia could have never industrialized. Not to the extent it had. They couldn't appreciate the values of mechanisation and electrification without the social constructs of socialism and without them changing their society the old ways would have made them utterly inadequate for modern society. Russia would have lost the race with the Western empires and Japan and would have been torn apart by them. The other example is the recent history of China where again communism had to first destroy the entire fabric of society before making the country being able to industrialise. Without the cultural revolution and the huge impact on society it had the Chinese people weren't ready to appreciate the cultural norms and institution which came with their new society. Only after the party had cleared the ways of the old was the country able to adopt new outlook to the world and industrialise. The same process of killing the old has happened in Japan, too, but that is the only case in our history where the process was generated internally, rather than externally and it was due to the ability of the society to adapt which far exceeded anything else the West had seen before. In the same manner if you take notice of the way the third world had spiralled into chaos post-colonization you would see the same paradigm-first it comes a period of refreshing the old ways, of soul-searching and of acquiring new identity, than it comes the realization that this new identity is too different from the traditional identity of the nations to be practical identity for the people and finally when the people try clinging on to their old ways and what they feel as their true identity the nation spirals into chaos followed by years of anarchy and civil wars. It's a result of collapsing society never capable of appreciating the fruits of industrialization. It can't change completely out of what is traditional for it and the result is often too harsh on the people. This is what happens if you try industrializing without a paradigm shift-a stark reminder of the fact that social processes are always interlinked with the technology a society utilizes and vice versa/ So, if you want to know is early industrialization possible I can humbly advice you to look for the answers of a different set of questions. The questions whether society is ready to industrialise or not. Is it ready to throw away its old norms of conduct amongst people? Is it ready to acquire new ones? How strong is the connection to its traditions? Are there any major power structures (like the church for example) ready to squash the new influences with their influence? Can people "handle" the new circumstances of social organisation or would there be any major factor contributing to the demise of their society as a reaction to the change caused by the industrialization? If you manage to answer these questions you would have your answer.

In the end, I would like to show you how I solve the question in my own worldbuilding. I imagine a country facing opposition on all fronts. I imagine a country trying to oppose both the Orthodox and the Catholic church during the darkest days of the Middle ages. It's a country made up of heretics, so it's a recepy for disaster during the period. Would you agree? So, it faces the threat of numerous crusades and has enemies on all sides. In order to continue its existence it needs a strong military. But a strong military needs a lot of resources-in particular a lot of iron. So, it optimizes its iron production. There is no way to get more people to produce more iron, the country is already at the bring of extinction and there is no way more people can come from the neighbouring Christian states. This leaves them only one option-find a way to scale up iron manufacturing so fewer people can make more iron. It leads them to discover coals and than coke, than iron mills and finally steam engines. With steam engines comes industrialization and with industrialization comes chemistry and with chemistry come incendiaries, explosives and poison gases. When they reach this point in their development they become so strong that even the entire European continent united can't stop them. There they become superpower to be reckoned with. But the church can't have some heretics stir up the continent, so they ban all contacts with the heretics and thus isolate all of Europe from influences that could have industrialised the continent 500 years before this happened in our timeline. The church just can't industrialise-it would undermine its authority too much. Too much was at stake for the pope to let this virus spread, to let people see the example of heretics. So there is no Renaissance, there is no colonization, there is no reformation, there are eventually gunpowder and transoceanic ship in Europe but the strong papacy weakens the spirit of all Europe, so the continent can't muster the same strength it had managed to do in our timeline and their colonization efforts are dwarfed by this new superpower who dictates the terms of international relations between Europe and the New World. This heretic country reaches 20th century technological levels by the 1500s so it can counter ships with bombers, guns with machineguns and cavalry with tanks. Than Europe is powerless as well as China, India and anyone else. This is what a country devoted to progress in its fullest would look like and this is how to make a great power. in our timeline we just had the LUCK Great Britain wasn't that great for that much time and so eventually the rest of Europe was able to catch up. But I argue that if industrialization had happened earlier and the industrializing power had more than a century before any of its neighbours could catch up with it the result would be a bunch of societies choosing either to become subjugated by the industrial superpower or cutting all ties with it in an effort to remain true to their traditions by never challenging it. That is what progress is really about-changing the way you live, not only in technology but in all other aspects of society, too. Do you agree?
 
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