I've heard that an industrial revolution requires several factors. During my alternate timeline Britain was usually missing a few of these factors. Eventually all of these factors line up. How long would Britain need to be in this state (all the required factors for a industrial revolution present at once) before they would plausibly begin their industrial revolution?
Early Industrial Revolution
- Thread starter Matti23
- Start date
The requirements for industrial revolution are:
- Burnable resources (either wood, peat or coal).
- Experience with mechanization (english fulling mills in OTL, started late medieval age).
- Capital, as the research and construction of machines and steam engines is expensive.
- Intellectual background, (royal societies in OTL) who could reasonably be expected to invent such machines.
- Judicary institution for protection of inventions (patents&cetera).
- A willingness to experiment/ necessity to experiment
Resources are certain. If your POD is after 1500, you have the beginning of mechanization (unless some truly devastating war happens).
Unless outside forces intervene, the fact that Britain an island is will ensure a single state taking over the majority of the isle, be it sooner or later. This single state could start to invest in sciences/ reform the laws, having (almost) no land borders that required protection. The peace resulting in a single state dominating the isles would ensure prosperity and this would result in capital.
OTL union started in 1600, legalised in 1700 with the Ind Rev in 1760-1820. About 150 years or so.
- Burnable resources (either wood, peat or coal).
- Experience with mechanization (english fulling mills in OTL, started late medieval age).
- Capital, as the research and construction of machines and steam engines is expensive.
- Intellectual background, (royal societies in OTL) who could reasonably be expected to invent such machines.
- Judicary institution for protection of inventions (patents&cetera).
- A willingness to experiment/ necessity to experiment
Resources are certain. If your POD is after 1500, you have the beginning of mechanization (unless some truly devastating war happens).
Unless outside forces intervene, the fact that Britain an island is will ensure a single state taking over the majority of the isle, be it sooner or later. This single state could start to invest in sciences/ reform the laws, having (almost) no land borders that required protection. The peace resulting in a single state dominating the isles would ensure prosperity and this would result in capital.
OTL union started in 1600, legalised in 1700 with the Ind Rev in 1760-1820. About 150 years or so.
Industrialization does not equal steam power anymore than powered flight equals rocketry.
@WunWun and @DominusNovus
Let's say hypothetically that there was another nation which had large reserves of oil which are known to the population and are being burnt for heat beforehand. This nation is technologically far ahead of the rest of the world and has all the factors except wood, peat or coal. This is because they have cut down excessive amounts of their trees. The location in their nation which has the peat and coal has been occupied by an invader and won't be returned to their control any time soon. The way timeline is structured it will be roughly 500 years before the next nation will be able to industrialize. Would it be likely for that nation to be the one to industrialize first, or would it be more likely that without sufficient wood, peat or coal it would just remain un-industrialized until the next nation does so instead (the other contender has massive reserves of coal but is a few centuries away from having the required tech)? What would you roughly put the odds at that such a nation would be able to use oil to fuel its industrial revolution in the next 370 years? To add to this they were accustomed to burning coal right until right before the invasion but ran short afterwards, causing the nation to switch to coke for iron manufacture and to use oil for heat.
Sorry if this seems a little abstract, by POD is pretty far back so once we get to industrialization the arrangement of nations has gotten rather weird.
Let's say hypothetically that there was another nation which had large reserves of oil which are known to the population and are being burnt for heat beforehand. This nation is technologically far ahead of the rest of the world and has all the factors except wood, peat or coal. This is because they have cut down excessive amounts of their trees. The location in their nation which has the peat and coal has been occupied by an invader and won't be returned to their control any time soon. The way timeline is structured it will be roughly 500 years before the next nation will be able to industrialize. Would it be likely for that nation to be the one to industrialize first, or would it be more likely that without sufficient wood, peat or coal it would just remain un-industrialized until the next nation does so instead (the other contender has massive reserves of coal but is a few centuries away from having the required tech)? What would you roughly put the odds at that such a nation would be able to use oil to fuel its industrial revolution in the next 370 years? To add to this they were accustomed to burning coal right until right before the invasion but ran short afterwards, causing the nation to switch to coke for iron manufacture and to use oil for heat.
Sorry if this seems a little abstract, by POD is pretty far back so once we get to industrialization the arrangement of nations has gotten rather weird.
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Coke is just processed coal.
The change to using oil as fuel is a big leap, but if there are major ironworks (mines/ iron mills) it could be possible. Using wind/water power is also an option to bridge the gap between no industry and oil industry. (France is an OTL example).
Industrialisation also has a major organisational side, with manufactories, putting out and division of labor.
Its possible, but when it happens, then the coal-owning nation will have a difficult time catching up, because coal is inferior to oil for industry. (steam engines need to heat up, and need a large boiler. Internal combustion is much smaller and more efficient.)
The change to using oil as fuel is a big leap, but if there are major ironworks (mines/ iron mills) it could be possible. Using wind/water power is also an option to bridge the gap between no industry and oil industry. (France is an OTL example).
Industrialisation also has a major organisational side, with manufactories, putting out and division of labor.
Its possible, but when it happens, then the coal-owning nation will have a difficult time catching up, because coal is inferior to oil for industry. (steam engines need to heat up, and need a large boiler. Internal combustion is much smaller and more efficient.)
@WunWun
Thanks for the response
There are major ironworks. This nation has these on the scale of Song China. This nation at the current point of the scenario (as mentioned above, just lost their coal supplies and has a roughly 500 years until another nation industrializes with coal) already as a century of history of mining up to 800 feet for a brine and oil. At that point the oil plays a moderate part in manufacturing currently (mostly weapons and fireworks). They also have a century of experience collecting natural gas using bamboo poles and mixing with air to fuel fires. I happened to find some info that these activities occurred OTL roughly around the time the story takes place so I decided to make it an activity that this nation engages in.
You said that using oil is a big leap. Would it be more likely that the nation makes this leap or that they stay stuck in a pre-industrial state until someone else industrializes using coal? Got two alternatives for the timeline going forwards from here. In one the nation industrializes and retakes its land. In the other story the nation fails to industrialize for 500 years until someone from the other side of the world with greater coal reserves undergoes an industrial revolution. I was going to go for whichever one seems to be the more likely alternative.
Thanks for the response
There are major ironworks. This nation has these on the scale of Song China. This nation at the current point of the scenario (as mentioned above, just lost their coal supplies and has a roughly 500 years until another nation industrializes with coal) already as a century of history of mining up to 800 feet for a brine and oil. At that point the oil plays a moderate part in manufacturing currently (mostly weapons and fireworks). They also have a century of experience collecting natural gas using bamboo poles and mixing with air to fuel fires. I happened to find some info that these activities occurred OTL roughly around the time the story takes place so I decided to make it an activity that this nation engages in.
You said that using oil is a big leap. Would it be more likely that the nation makes this leap or that they stay stuck in a pre-industrial state until someone else industrializes using coal? Got two alternatives for the timeline going forwards from here. In one the nation industrializes and retakes its land. In the other story the nation fails to industrialize for 500 years until someone from the other side of the world with greater coal reserves undergoes an industrial revolution. I was going to go for whichever one seems to be the more likely alternative.
@WunWun
The nation has the largest population in the world. It's got a rapidly expanding middle class. The external markets are equivalent to twice it's own population. The external market will increase to four times its own population in the next 100 years. It produces a range of luxury items which it has a monopoly on such as silk. Might a nation plausibly be able to increase the demands for its goods to a sufficient level based on its own middle class? Is the external market big enough?
These folks are big on global exploration with the world being completely explored in 150 years. The nation had dominated the markets for tea, silk, copper, paper and printed books, porcelain, lacquerware, jewelry, rice and other grains, ginger and spice in Europe, Africa, North America, South America, Central America, Asia, Oceania and the Middle East for a couple of centuries by the 1200s (which is when the 500 year timer to the next industrialized nation begins). the Americas are going to eventually be devastated by disease following contact but will continue trading with their limited population.
Africa will develop a rapidly expanding middle class in about 200 years. This timeline has kingdoms built by the native peoples of Siberia in 300 years. Trade with the outside world is established in 200 years and technology from the outside world enters their society. The introduction of potatoes and other crops from around the world allows their population to triple in the 100 years after first contact (200 to 300 years from the current point in the timeline). This creates a region friendly to the nation we've been talking about with a population of 120 million and a rapidly expanding middle class 100 years after first contact.
I've got the nation making contact with the Aztecs in about 120 years. They've got plenty of gold and buying power but the nation has a population of 100 million, quite a bit larger than the Aztecs. I'd expect their buying power would drop quite significantly once disease starts spreading through the Aztec Empire.
The nation has the largest population in the world. It's got a rapidly expanding middle class. The external markets are equivalent to twice it's own population. The external market will increase to four times its own population in the next 100 years. It produces a range of luxury items which it has a monopoly on such as silk. Might a nation plausibly be able to increase the demands for its goods to a sufficient level based on its own middle class? Is the external market big enough?
These folks are big on global exploration with the world being completely explored in 150 years. The nation had dominated the markets for tea, silk, copper, paper and printed books, porcelain, lacquerware, jewelry, rice and other grains, ginger and spice in Europe, Africa, North America, South America, Central America, Asia, Oceania and the Middle East for a couple of centuries by the 1200s (which is when the 500 year timer to the next industrialized nation begins). the Americas are going to eventually be devastated by disease following contact but will continue trading with their limited population.
Africa will develop a rapidly expanding middle class in about 200 years. This timeline has kingdoms built by the native peoples of Siberia in 300 years. Trade with the outside world is established in 200 years and technology from the outside world enters their society. The introduction of potatoes and other crops from around the world allows their population to triple in the 100 years after first contact (200 to 300 years from the current point in the timeline). This creates a region friendly to the nation we've been talking about with a population of 120 million and a rapidly expanding middle class 100 years after first contact.
I've got the nation making contact with the Aztecs in about 120 years. They've got plenty of gold and buying power but the nation has a population of 100 million, quite a bit larger than the Aztecs. I'd expect their buying power would drop quite significantly once disease starts spreading through the Aztec Empire.
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But it sure does help!!!
It does, but I can see a watermill-based industrialization happen quite plausibly (in fact, this is OTL to an extent), so long as there are numerous fast-moving streams whose water levels don't drastically change.
Not just to an extent, but it was main focus. The great industrial mill towns were all built along sources of water power.
Sure and wind for sea and water navigation.
It might be possible but you need power for water pumps in mining and there ain't no wind enough in those places. And you need something better than animal or human power to power up machinery and move heavy cargo around. Huge amounts of readily available HP.
''The industrial revolution was well underway before the steam-engine came into use for driving machinery. Only two prime-movers—the water wheel and the windmill—were widely available, and with very few exceptions these yielded no more than 10 h.p. and often less. (T. K. Derry & Trevor I. Williams, A Short History of Technology: From the Earliest Times to A.D. 1900 (1960) Ch.11, The Steam Engine)
@JorgeGG @DominusNovus @Indicus @WunWun
Now those are good ideas. The country I've got in my timeline has specialization with windmill towns. Following on that line of thought, would it be plausible for someone to create an oil powered steam engine? Going directly to internal combustion is quite a jump, but an oil powered powered steam engine could be an intermediary invention. It could conceptually be thought of as like a waterwheel (which the nation already has) but which is driven by steam instead of a river. This might be less of a conceptual jump. Perhaps with the scientific revolution following an early industrial revolution people could figure out internal combustion.
Coal seems like the obvious initial choice to us because it's what we used OTL. It might not seem to obvious to a society who has yet to invent the steam engine. Perhaps anything highly flammable could pop into the mind of an inventor as easily as coal? It would help that oil lamps would already be available across the country, so any budding inventors would know about it.
Wondering whether a nation could plausibly have a big enough middle class to drive the demand for an industrial revolution? If the global market doubles that demand for their products would that help by enough?
Now those are good ideas. The country I've got in my timeline has specialization with windmill towns. Following on that line of thought, would it be plausible for someone to create an oil powered steam engine? Going directly to internal combustion is quite a jump, but an oil powered powered steam engine could be an intermediary invention. It could conceptually be thought of as like a waterwheel (which the nation already has) but which is driven by steam instead of a river. This might be less of a conceptual jump. Perhaps with the scientific revolution following an early industrial revolution people could figure out internal combustion.
Coal seems like the obvious initial choice to us because it's what we used OTL. It might not seem to obvious to a society who has yet to invent the steam engine. Perhaps anything highly flammable could pop into the mind of an inventor as easily as coal? It would help that oil lamps would already be available across the country, so any budding inventors would know about it.
Wondering whether a nation could plausibly have a big enough middle class to drive the demand for an industrial revolution? If the global market doubles that demand for their products would that help by enough?
fi11222
Banned
This, as usual in such discussions, ignores the cultural/religious factor.
Neither 3 nor 5, or even 4 and 6, were possible without protestantism IOTL. I am not saying, of course, that protestantism is the condition sine qua non of industrialization. But that something with the same societal effects as protestantism is necessary. Now we must inquire what those societal effects were, naturally. But this will lead to quite a long and controversial debate I am affraid.
@fi11222
Those are good points. Seen the list. Wrote the nation before getting to the industrial revolution so things are a bit complicated. They have factors that can get them several of those factors.
1. Bit complicated. They have vast reserves of oil and are actively harvesting them for production of gun power and heating. Been harvesting it for centuries and can get up to 800 feet underground. They don't use it to produce steel though. They simply ran short of coal when another nation invaded from the north 100 years ago. They still have coal but the shortage spurred them to turn their coal into coke for steel production. Would that be good enough to fulfill 1?
2. They're pretty good with mechanization
3. Although the government doesn't invest much in research, rich private merchants are beginning to gain power in society. They'd be willing to throw money at whatever could increase profits. As of the current bit of the timeline they have begun to bribe officials and subvert the actions of the government.
4. The nation is based on a nation which has historically been responsible for several inventions in the past.
5. Not quite sure what to make of this in my timeline. The OTL equivalent seems to have allowed authors to copyright books and allowed corporations to copyright symbols pertaining to their company. Seems there is no record of patents for inventions through. Several of the OTL equivalent's inventions seems to have happened anyway regardless, including one machine allowing workers to get more productivity out of their labor (its still human power operated though). Given the rising dominance of corporations maybe that could factor into it somehow? If we can get an inventor with a machine to present to one of the corporations with his idea then the corporation could begin lobbying or bribing the appropriate people to get such a patent introduced. Don't know how aware the common folks and inventors would be of this possibility though. The people of the nation are pretty angry about the corporations influencing their government, with many aware that they are somehow avoiding the payment of taxes. The monarchs from this point in the timeline will get progressively weaker with the loyalist ministers and the corporations struggling over the future of the nation. At the current point an increasing amount of ministers are being bribed into the pockets of the corporations. In about 90 years the monarch will just stay in his palace living a hedonistic lifestyle while the corporations begin rolling back some of the loyalist's policies (not all of them, power by that point is 50/50). May it play into their decision to try and develop a steam engine?
6. The nation is based on a nation which has historically been responsible for several inventions in the past, which might suggest a willingness to experiment.
Those are good points. Seen the list. Wrote the nation before getting to the industrial revolution so things are a bit complicated. They have factors that can get them several of those factors.
1. Bit complicated. They have vast reserves of oil and are actively harvesting them for production of gun power and heating. Been harvesting it for centuries and can get up to 800 feet underground. They don't use it to produce steel though. They simply ran short of coal when another nation invaded from the north 100 years ago. They still have coal but the shortage spurred them to turn their coal into coke for steel production. Would that be good enough to fulfill 1?
2. They're pretty good with mechanization
3. Although the government doesn't invest much in research, rich private merchants are beginning to gain power in society. They'd be willing to throw money at whatever could increase profits. As of the current bit of the timeline they have begun to bribe officials and subvert the actions of the government.
4. The nation is based on a nation which has historically been responsible for several inventions in the past.
5. Not quite sure what to make of this in my timeline. The OTL equivalent seems to have allowed authors to copyright books and allowed corporations to copyright symbols pertaining to their company. Seems there is no record of patents for inventions through. Several of the OTL equivalent's inventions seems to have happened anyway regardless, including one machine allowing workers to get more productivity out of their labor (its still human power operated though). Given the rising dominance of corporations maybe that could factor into it somehow? If we can get an inventor with a machine to present to one of the corporations with his idea then the corporation could begin lobbying or bribing the appropriate people to get such a patent introduced. Don't know how aware the common folks and inventors would be of this possibility though. The people of the nation are pretty angry about the corporations influencing their government, with many aware that they are somehow avoiding the payment of taxes. The monarchs from this point in the timeline will get progressively weaker with the loyalist ministers and the corporations struggling over the future of the nation. At the current point an increasing amount of ministers are being bribed into the pockets of the corporations. In about 90 years the monarch will just stay in his palace living a hedonistic lifestyle while the corporations begin rolling back some of the loyalist's policies (not all of them, power by that point is 50/50). May it play into their decision to try and develop a steam engine?
6. The nation is based on a nation which has historically been responsible for several inventions in the past, which might suggest a willingness to experiment.
@fi11222
The cultural factor is certainly true, but not in the form of Protestantism. In my opinion it is more of a "planned" economy, as a certain amount of precision was necessary to know when to plant, when to harvest, how to store and how much you could eat every day. Such divisions, that existed in more northern lying/ harsher climates, would instill a certain work ethic in society.
I sincerely doubt industrialisation could take place in a region where food is just to be picked of the trees the whole year round.
The cultural factor is certainly true, but not in the form of Protestantism. In my opinion it is more of a "planned" economy, as a certain amount of precision was necessary to know when to plant, when to harvest, how to store and how much you could eat every day. Such divisions, that existed in more northern lying/ harsher climates, would instill a certain work ethic in society.
I sincerely doubt industrialisation could take place in a region where food is just to be picked of the trees the whole year round.
fi11222
Banned
Agreed.
Yet, a cold/harsh climate is not enough. Northern China is quite cold in winter. And yet, no industrial revolution occured there.
Would the presence of large supplies of oil and natural gas, widespread extraction and utilization of these resources for energy fulfill criteria 1 as well as coal? Would having vast supplies of oil and natural gas instead of coal actually act as a disadvantage on the industrial revolution front?
I did more research into the OTL equivalent of the nation and found out that the society was dominated by guilds. They were powerful enough that the government had to deal with them regarding taxes, regulate the actions of those working in a specific craft in the large cities and to a certain extent control the flow of information across a profession within their region of influence. There's still no patent technology so it would be up to the guilds to protect any new tech. Would that be enough to get criteria 3 and 5?
Although there aren't many flooded mines, there were a few oil and natural gas extraction sites that need to be worked by hand for hours a day. Might that be a good enough trigger? Instead of someone figuring out how to clear a flooded coal mine, perhaps someone from the local engineer or oil workers guild could figure out how to use oil in order to increase the speed of oil extraction? Since the guilds were localized an inventor might conceivably expect their local group to keep the invention secret netting them and those around them a significant profit.
I did more research into the OTL equivalent of the nation and found out that the society was dominated by guilds. They were powerful enough that the government had to deal with them regarding taxes, regulate the actions of those working in a specific craft in the large cities and to a certain extent control the flow of information across a profession within their region of influence. There's still no patent technology so it would be up to the guilds to protect any new tech. Would that be enough to get criteria 3 and 5?
Although there aren't many flooded mines, there were a few oil and natural gas extraction sites that need to be worked by hand for hours a day. Might that be a good enough trigger? Instead of someone figuring out how to clear a flooded coal mine, perhaps someone from the local engineer or oil workers guild could figure out how to use oil in order to increase the speed of oil extraction? Since the guilds were localized an inventor might conceivably expect their local group to keep the invention secret netting them and those around them a significant profit.
You missed two key items here. You need a middle class (or something that approximates it), and the precondition of a middle class - food production such that the middle class is pursuing other endeavors.
Industrialization is a response to what is essentially consistent demand for goods in mass. Theoretically, industrialization could have occurred in ship building or weapons manufacturing. But production was inconsistent and could be "drafted" by monarchs. There's no need to industrialize cannon manufacturing in this case.
Textiles was ideally suited to be at the forefront of industrialization. Clothing is constant. Peasants would make their own while nobility would have custom made attire. But the middle class would have demanded goods that were not as fine as the nobility's but still more and better than peasants. And the middle class would have the money to purchase rather than make their own.
Ship building might have offered a means to industrialization but its hard to imagine the sustained demand for ships if you are not already mass producing goods of some sort. If the gold of the new world didnt require industrialized ship building what would, outside of consumer goods.
So, to the OP, create a society that has a sustained middle class along with the items @WunWun has already listed.