Early Independence for Poland.

So i thought what if Poland would split from the Russian Empire prior to 1914? Not in a peaceful way, but in more of a bloody civil war way. I think this could lead to a war of proportions similar to those of WW1. After all WW1 was itself started from a rather small spark. Ethnic Poles existed in the German Empire and Austrohungarian Empire, so that would make things even more interesting.
 
So i thought what if Poland would split from the Russian Empire prior to 1914? Not in a peaceful way, but in more of a bloody civil war way. I think this could lead to a war of proportions similar to those of WW1. After all WW1 was itself started from a rather small spark. Ethnic Poles existed in the German Empire and Austrohungarian Empire, so that would make things even more interesting.
How early are you thinking? Napoleonic era with the Little Emperor sticking with his plan to recreate a free Poland due to his succeeding in dominating Europe? 1830 with a successful November uprising? 1848's Spring of Nations (liberal Germans succeed in creating an earlier, non-Prussian state, go to war with the latter over fears regarding this new state, and 'Germany' wins splitting off Polish lands to weaken Prussia)? The January uprising of 1863 (the war remains focused on social injustice rather than Polish nationalism garnering international support; guerilla tactics thus continue bleeding Russia until it is forced to cede, likely due to riots and revolution in St. Petersburg)? By 1900, I just don't see it happening. Germany and Russia are just too strong.
 
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So i thought what if Poland would split from the Russian Empire prior to 1914? Not in a peaceful way, but in more of a bloody civil war way. I think this could lead to a war of proportions similar to those of WW1. After all WW1 was itself started from a rather small spark. Ethnic Poles existed in the German Empire and Austrohungarian Empire, so that would make things even more interesting.

How would the world change after such an event would be very dependent on the date at which Poland became independent. Was it any of the uprisings? Perhaps Duchy of Warsaw survives? Russia collapses due to some internal event or a war? There are a massive amounts of possible butterflies surrounding such an idea. Possibly the entirety of the 19th and 20th century would look nothing like OTL.
 
Succesfull November Uprising (ie. crowing Konstantin as a king of independent Poland) and you have independence around 1831.
No Uprisings after Vienna Congress and you have big autonomy inside Russian Empire.
No 3rd May Constitution and Poland won't lose independence (but will be Russian protectorate).
 
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Considering that by the time the Commonwealth was dissolved, the Constitution was not even in effect any more, I find that highly unlikely.
No constitution won't give partitioners causus beli (at least in short period of time) to partition Poland. If Poland isn't going against Russia but stays as Russian Protectorate it will enter Napoleonic Era "independent", and 2rd and 3rd Partitions wont happen. Given that after Catherine dies, Paul I would do everything against his mother international policies, I dont think he would want to partition Poland, he would be happy with it being a protectorate (and Catherine probrably too).
 
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How early are you thinking? Napoleonic era with the Little Emperor sticking with his plan to recreate a free Poland due to his succeeding in dominating Europe? 1830 with a successful November uprising? 1848's Spring of Nations (liberal Germans succeed in creating an earlier, non-Prussian state, go to war with the latter over fears regarding this new state, and 'Germany' wins splitting off Polish lands to weaken Prussia)? The January uprising of 1863 (the war remains focused on social injustice rather than Polish nationalism garnering international support; guerilla tactics thus continue bleeding Russia until it is forced to cede, likely due to riots and revolution in St. Petersburg)? By 1900, I just don't see it happening. Germany and Russia are just too strong.
Well, the thing is i imagine it would happen in the 1900-1910s. That would be because Europe was being hit by waves of nationalism from many ethinicities during that period. That was the point i wrapped this idea around. However as you said, both Germany and Russia are too strong to allow Polish rebellions. But what if the nationalists strike in only one place? Say for example they star rioting and begin a civil war in Russia? Would Germany jump to aid them given their rivality? Or would they join forces agaisnt the Polish rebellion?
 
Well, Russia was unstable so it could have chance of survival. Unless it socialist revolution Austria and Germany could even try to help Poles to weaken Russia.
 
Could either Germany, Austro-Hungary or Russia attempt to establish an independent Poland (either Kingdom or Republic) in order to gain more favor from their Polish communities? They could also do it for the purpose of establishing a buffer state against one another and/or if Congress Poland sees a particularly violent rebellion.
 
Could either Germany, Austro-Hungary or Russia attempt to establish an independent Poland (either Kingdom or Republic) in order to gain more favor from their Polish communities? They could also do it for the purpose of establishing a buffer state against one another and/or if Congress Poland sees a particularly violent rebellion.
Germany sure as hell won't as it regards its part of Poland as core territory while Russia or Austria doing so would lead to calls for other territories to gain independence or join neighboring countries
 
Germany sure as hell won't as it regards its part of Poland as core territory while Russia or Austria doing so would lead to calls for other territories to gain independence or join neighboring countries
Let's say, the Russians and/or Austrians declare Poland independent anyway - what happens then?
 
Let's say, the Russians and/or Austrians declare Poland independent anyway - what happens then?
Austria would see unrest and calls in its remaining Slavic,Romanian, and Italian areas for independence or to join neighboring countries. Russia would see the same in the Baltic and Finland along with encouragement of Ukrainian and Belorussian Nationalism.
 
No independent Poland without Russian and German cooperation and with the Russian economy recovering in 1910-14 there is little need for Poles to revolt. Germans had invested way too much on assimilation to give up Polish lands. Best hope is an A-H split followed by a Hungarian civil war fueling Polish independence claims but Russia Germany and Austria would work together to put this down.
 
Austria would see unrest and calls in its remaining Slavic,Romanian, and Italian areas for independence or to join neighboring countries. Russia would see the same in the Baltic and Finland along with encouragement of Ukrainian and Belorussian Nationalism.
Could this cause the Russian and Austro-Hungarian Empires becoming more federal?
 
No independent Poland without Russian and German cooperation and with the Russian economy recovering in 1910-14 there is little need for Poles to revolt. Germans had invested way too much on assimilation to give up Polish lands. Best hope is an A-H split followed by a Hungarian civil war fueling Polish independence claims but Russia Germany and Austria would work together to put this down.
How else can we get an independent Poland before World War 1?

In the case that there's somehow an independent Poland prior to WW1, what would its role be?
 
How else can we get an independent Poland before World War 1?

In the case that there's somehow an independent Poland prior to WW1, what would its role be?

Poland can only exist if its neighbors are too weak. Even then the Soviets came close to snuffing out Poland in 1919-20. Once Germany and Russia had recovered enough they snuffed out Poland in 1939. Prior to WW1 Poland's occupiers are just too strong. Perhaps if there was a mechanism for population swaps as proposed for the Balkans pre-WW1 and exercised between post WW1 Greece and Turkey could you perhaps make a case for an independent Poland. This would be a risky Pandora's box for multi-national/multi-ethnic empires to agree to open.

Any of the 'Black Eagles' would want to control all of the 'White Eagle' for it to possibly become whole and serve as a buffer state but this would be unacceptable to the other 2 parties. Poland served as a buffer state in the period between WW1 and 2 but it needed international support (particularly French) and a deliberately disarmed Germany. Poland was also the seed for the second war by putting too many Germans within its borders.
 
Poland can only exist if its neighbors are too weak. Even then the Soviets came close to snuffing out Poland in 1919-20. Once Germany and Russia had recovered enough they snuffed out Poland in 1939. Prior to WW1 Poland's occupiers are just too strong. Perhaps if there was a mechanism for population swaps as proposed for the Balkans pre-WW1 and exercised between post WW1 Greece and Turkey could you perhaps make a case for an independent Poland. This would be a risky Pandora's box for multi-national/multi-ethnic empires to agree to open.

Any of the 'Black Eagles' would want to control all of the 'White Eagle' for it to possibly become whole and serve as a buffer state but this would be unacceptable to the other 2 parties. Poland served as a buffer state in the period between WW1 and 2 but it needed international support (particularly French) and a deliberately disarmed Germany. Poland was also the seed for the second war by putting too many Germans within its borders.
Not really. Belgium or Netherlands were smaller and sandwitched between more powerful imperialist states and yet managed to survive and prosper. The point was they were useful enough for someone to intervene when French or Germans were coming to conquer them - and they were always more useful existing than partitioned. Late PLC had fallen so badly that chopping it to pieces was a better business than controlling it whole.

Btw. there were few Germans remaining in Poland in 1939, something like 3% or less.



Now if you want Poland to regain independence earlier instead of just PLC surviving you need either Napoleonic victory or Duchy of Warsaw being kept around by victorious empires for some reason so here's my exotic proposal: Prussians take the whole Saxony while Wettins are given Duchy of Warsaw (probaby cut down somehow) in compensation.
 
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