Early Entente Victory Without UK?

[Deleted member 200420]

The consensus of what would occur if the UK didn't enter the Great War is that France and Russia would get pummelled. Lets say, however, that near-ASB levels of luck befall the French and Russian war effort and victory is secured in 1915. I'd imagine such a scenario would involve France not implementing Plan XVII and withstanding Germany while Russia avoiding Tannenberg goes on some alternate rampage in the east and brings the Central Powers to heel. The Ottomans probably remain neutral. Without the mediating hand of the UK the Entente have free reign to draw up whatever kind of peace treaty they wish. What is the result of such a scenario?

 

[Samsonov]

I presume the peace treaty will be much more moderate if the war is short. Transfer back Alsace Lorraine to France and some of Galicia to Russia. Loss of German colonies. Financial indemnity for Germany and AH. I do not think the peace can be that harsh unless there is means of preventing Germany rejecting the treaty and taking up arms, and the only way I can think of is literal multiple German armies being surrounded and surrendering during the conflict.

 

[Lalli]

I can't see France and Russia alone being strong enough to enforce very much and short war might mean lesser harsh terms anyway. But if Entente is able to pull victory in 1915 or even early 1916 (and IMO this is indeed nearby ASB) terms are not really harsh.

Germany
- Ceding Alsace-Lorraine to France and perhaps demilitarisation of border region.
- Ceding some border regions on East Prussia and Silesia to Russia.
- Germany has give some of colonies, probably Togoland, Cameroon and Pacific Islands assuming that Japan still joins. But now it would get everything altough Germany might be allowed to keep German Samoa since it is pretty far from Japan.

Austria-Hungary
- Has cede Galicia to Russia.
- Ceding Bosnia to Serbia.
- If Italy jumps to the war (what I bit suspect) it gets Southern Tyrol and Istria. Perhaps Dalmatia or parts of that too. Otherwise A-H continues its existence or at least Entente doesn't forcibly dissolve that.

Ottoman Empire (assuming that it still joins)
- Loses Armenian regions to Russia.

 

[Evil Crusader]

I would expect the UK, of all people, being the one that saves the CPs from a harsh peace because they fear French and Russian dominance every bit as much as they do German dominance (possibly more because it's harder to disarm the Franco-Russian agreement than it is to found an anti-German Camp).
From the French and Russian POV there actually will be terrible pressure to keep the ball rolling as long as they are rolling all sixes.

 

[raharris1973]

I presume the peace treaty will be much more moderate if the war is short.

short war might mean lesser harsh terms anyway.

Why?

Wouldn't that tendency be overridden by:

From the French and Russian POV there actually will be terrible pressure to keep the ball rolling as long as they are rolling all sixes.

 

[Deleted member 200420]

Germany
- Ceding Alsace-Lorraine to France and perhaps demilitarisation of border region.
- Ceding some border regions on East Prussia and Silesia to Russia.
- Germany has give some of colonies, probably Togoland, Cameroon and Pacific Islands assuming that Japan still joins. But now it would get everything altough Germany might be allowed to keep German Samoa since it is pretty far from Japan.

Austria-Hungary
- Has cede Galicia to Russia.
- Ceding Bosnia to Serbia.
- If Italy jumps to the war (what I bit suspect) it gets Southern Tyrol and Istria. Perhaps Dalmatia or parts of that too. Otherwise A-H continues its existence or at least Entente doesn't forcibly dissolve that.

I’m not sure the treaty would be this lenient. The UK has little sway over the treaty signed and the French will be wanting to do as much damage to Germany as possible.
- Memel and Galicia ceded to Russia.
- Semi-independent Polish state established; Danzig corridor, Posen, upper Silesia gobbled up.
- South Tyrol, Istria and Dalmatia ceded to Italy.
- Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia to Serbia.
- Hungary partitioned and independent Czech state established.
- Annexation of Alsace-Lorraine and Saarland by France, Eupen to Belgium, Rhineland puppet state split off.
- North Schleswig given to Denmark.
- Balkanisation of Germany, Kaiser’s son given Prussian throne, independent Bavaria and Baden, some sort of North German partition plan.
With the domineering presence of Russia I don’t see any future war occurring or another reunification of Germany—in fact, the German national project probably takes a hit due to the embarrassing fashion in which the war was lost. I suspect all the new independent German states, likely with their own monarchies, would want to avoid another united Germany too.

 

[Lalli]

- Memel and Galicia ceded to Russia.

This is exactly on my proposal.

- Semi-independent Polish state established; Danzig corridor, Posen, upper Silesia gobbled up.

Russia never would accept even semi-independent Polish state. It just would give Poles too much ideas. So either Germany is allowed to keep Danzig or then Russia outright annexes that.

- South Tyrol, Istria and Dalmatia ceded to Italy.
- Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia to Serbia.

Likely.

- Hungary partitioned and independent Czech state established.

Possible if A-H would completely collapse.

- Annexation of Alsace-Lorraine and Saarland by France, Eupen to Belgium, Rhineland puppet state split off.

Yes for A-L and Saarland. But I can't see Eupen going to Germany since ITTL Germany probably wouldn't invade Belgium which led Britain to intervene. Rhineland is bit hard unless France manage to invade and occupy the region and locals are willingful to be independent.

- North Schleswig given to Denmark.

Possible.

- Balkanisation of Germany, Kaiser’s son given Prussian throne, independent Bavaria and Baden, some sort of North German partition plan.

That probably would require complete devastation and occupation of Germany.

With the domineering presence of Russia I don’t see any future war occurring or another reunification of Germany—in fact, the German national project probably takes a hit due to the embarrassing fashion in which the war was lost. I suspect all the new independent German states, likely with their own monarchies, would want to avoid another united Germany too.

Perhaps but not sure. German nationalism was already very strong at this point so there is probably another re-unification unless France and Russia is able to enforce that. And Russia would still face internal issues since eventually internal troubles would are too much. Not 1917 level revolutions but things hardly are going to be very stable.

 

[weasel_airlift]

I’m not sure the treaty would be this lenient. The UK has little sway over the treaty signed and the French will be wanting to do as much damage to Germany as possible.
- Memel and Galicia ceded to Russia.
- Semi-independent Polish state established; Danzig corridor, Posen, upper Silesia gobbled up.
- South Tyrol, Istria and Dalmatia ceded to Italy.
- Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia to Serbia.
- Hungary partitioned and independent Czech state established.
- Annexation of Alsace-Lorraine and Saarland by France, Eupen to Belgium, Rhineland puppet state split off.
- North Schleswig given to Denmark.
- Balkanisation of Germany, Kaiser’s son given Prussian throne, independent Bavaria and Baden, some sort of North German partition plan.
With the domineering presence of Russia I don’t see any future war occurring or another reunification of Germany—in fact, the German national project probably takes a hit due to the embarrassing fashion in which the war was lost. I suspect all the new independent German states, likely with their own monarchies, would want to avoid another united Germany too.

Given traditional UK strategy of keeping anyone from having continental hegemony, I think that they'd be very, very irritated if this happened. Without an extremely repressive occupation, I can't see Germany being balkanized, and I suspect that the stage will be set for another war, and a much nastier one.

 

[Deleted member 200420]

Given traditional UK strategy of keeping anyone from having continental hegemony, I think that they'd be very, very irritated if this happened.

So?

Without an extremely repressive occupation, I can't see Germany being balkanized, and I suspect that the stage will be set for another war, and a much nastier one.

I don’t really see why. Certainly the south German states (Bavaria, Baden, Austria) would be less amicable to the idea of a united Germany and Prussia would be neutered to the point where they lack the capability to unite Germany. And there would most definitely not be a second war here because Germany is the only serious player with grievances to be amended. And they will be immediately shot down by a supercharged Russia and a more confident and belligerent France.

 

[Deleted member 200420]

Russia never would accept even semi-independent Polish state. It just would give Poles too much ideas. So either Germany is allowed to keep Danzig or then Russia outright annexes that.

Why not? I don’t think Russia establishing some sort of Polish assembly is an outrageous proposal. Especially considering all Poles would be part of Russia following the treaty which means some sort of concession will have to be made to avoid unrest. France were also quite fond of the Polish from my understanding.

Yes for A-L and Saarland. But I can't see Eupen going to Germany since ITTL Germany probably wouldn't invade Belgium which led Britain to intervene. Rhineland is bit hard unless France manage to invade and occupy the region and locals are willingful to be independent.

Belgium is still invaded but Britain does not intervene to protect their neutrality. Like the Netherlands didn’t. The Rhineland wouldn’t be difficult to occupy at all—it would be completely demilitarised and only require a small French force to keep the peace.

That probably would require complete devastation and occupation of Germany.

Why? If Russia are on the gates of Berlin or have even taken Berlin there isn’t much Germany can do. This isn’t 1945.

Perhaps but not sure. German nationalism was already very strong at this point so there is probably another re-unification unless France and Russia is able to enforce that. And Russia would still face internal issues since eventually internal troubles would are too much. Not 1917 level revolutions but things hardly are going to be very stable.

Even if some German reunification were to happen it would not involve the south German states, they would be deprived of the Rhineland, and a powerful Russia would be right next door, with no allies to help them. There is nothing they can do.