alternatehistory.com

Actually, this is OTL.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moldavian_Revolution_of_1848
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wallachian_Revolution_of_1848

But OTL, the Russians maintained semi-friendly (as in seeking to vassalize and utilize as a buffer as they did with Persia) relations with the Ottoman Empire between 1830-1853. So the Occupation, which aimed at supressing reformers upsetting the statues quo, was coordinated with the Ottomans, who co-occupied Wallachia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_of_Balta_Liman

This discussion assumes that Russia has a less favorable attitude towards the Ottoman Empire. Perhaps Shamil is captured in 1839, the Dagestani/Chechen portion of the Caucasian war is brought to an earlier conclusion, and Russia engages in am earlier escalation of the Circassian war, leading to greater Ottoman support and perhaps resettlement of of Circassians in the Balkans as occured OTL in 1864 and all that that entailed. Or perhaps Istanbul offers sanctuary to the wrong Polish revolutionary and ignores Moscow's pointed "requests" in that regard.

Either way, Russia occupies and seeks to annex/assume exclusive protection of the principalities (possibly under the excuse of positioning themselves for intervention in Hungary and/or cutting off weapon supplies to it) while Austria, Germany and France are engulfed in turmoil. The Ottomans are told off and possibly forcibly expelled from Wallachia.

OTL, the British sorta-kinda warned them off this course. Let's assume Russia either ignores them or the British communications are garbeled (as they were during the Crimean War). Russia and the British supported Ottomans collide.

All other things being equal I assume that without the French (and later the Piedmontese) supplying most of the infantry, and without the British being armed with superior rifles, the Russians do somewhat better, especially in the initial stages of the war (especially if the POD is that the Caucassian war is allready over). Well enough to make them think they can actually win- but probably not well enough to actually win. The war probably takes place between the Danube and Plevana with the Brits threatening and possibly enfilading the Russian Flank.

It probably ends in a white peace and an earlier, if less urgent era of reforms in Russia.

But the question is- what happens in the rest of Europe in the meantime?

How much longer will it take Austria be to succesfully crush the Magyars rebellion+Piedmont (heavily timing dependent of course)? Is there any chance the Magyars will actually succeed in seceding (probably not), or that Piedmont might make permanent gains (again, probably not without French intervention or other rebellions).

Will Prussia continue to pursue the war with Denmark and Sweden longer than it did OTL, since Denmark's two Great Powerprotectors are at war with each other and will be courting him rather than warning him off?

With Austria and Russia (and possibly Prussia) engaged in longer, bloodier conflicts than OTL, does Poland erupt in flames -possibly in all thre partitions?

And most importantly - with Britain engaged with Russia, Austria suffering worse convulsions, and Prussa floundering in Jutland What does the relatively young and vigorous Napoleon III do? Is he tempted into a foreign policy adventurism? If so - in what direction?
a. The Rhine, in aid of Denmark and Sweden and in order to exclude Prussia from a United Germany? (millitary outcome? not sure. suspect the French make territorial gains and then bog down. heavily dependent on whether minor German States desert Prussia when the going gets tough).
b. Over the Alps in aid of Piedmont? (Kaput Austria)
c. Belgium, maybe in partnership with the Netherlands? (which will probably end the Anglo-Russian war VERY quickly)
Top