Early Confederate Victory

First to me, Alternate History means thiings happen differently.

Secondly I'm not a writer.

My conjecture is that during the Battle of Bull Run the Confederate Armies stayed organized during and after the battle and were able to press their advantage.

Jacksons forces were able to chase Keyes Division on Warreington Pike all the way to DC, supported by Holmes and Ewells Reserve Brigades.

Suart continued to harrass McDowells main forces as it moved north with several brigades in pursuit.

While the main force rest and recovers Jackson find his troops facing a last stand on the outskirts of DC at Falls Church. While badly beaten and dememoralized the Union division is reinforced with troops from the camps surrouunding the capital. With reinforcement the Union was able to hold off Jackson only until Cocke and Kershaws Brigades arrived turning the tide of the battle pushing the Union forces further west until finally the capital was visible.

Many people did no realize that being the first battle many citizens picniced to see for themselves the Union beat the Rebels. By this time (July 23) word had spread how badly the Union was actually beaten causing fear to spread. Refugees from the nieghboring area were arriving in evcer larger numbers. Hearing the sounds of battle did not help the public calm. Citizens were starting to protest for peace.

Lincoln seeing for himself that his army was in shambles and General McDowell having no answers calls for peace.

A peace treaty was formally signed by the two Presidents on July 30, 1861.

In the next 10 years there would be minor excursions and scrimmages. The biggest at Marysville on the Ohio border causing over 73 deaths on both sides.

I don't see a peace lasting much longer then 15-25 years before another war starts.

Just one of the things I thought would drastically change the war. Grants drinking himself to death or dying in a train accident coming east.
 
Interesting idea, and maybe possible POD, but...

Problems.

1) What do the Confederates do with McDowell's reserves?

2) Keyes is a brigade commander, not a division commander. Minor note, one might say, but since Sherman's brigade and Richardsons's (largely unengaged OTL) brigades were part of the same division, there are going to be problems.

3) Lincoln suddenly losing the will to continue would be very unlikely.
 
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