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Inspired by this thread

I am by no means a technical expert on cellular technology, but I find the claim far-fetched. The hard part of analog cellular isn't the actual transmitting, which is simple radio. It's in the switching between cells and that takes computing power that wasn't there until the 80s. Old style car phones existed as early as the 60s (perhaps earlier, I'm not sure) but it was an operator assisted radio connection. Widespread cellular got rid of the operator and automated everything and moved from a central radio connection to multiple low-power cells. 1947 was the year the transistor was invented, a necessary precursor to all of this. All in all, it might have gotten you an extra decade at most -- putting the first cell networks in the early to mid 1970s. Maybe, if the prospect drove the necessary innovation in computing and batteries. I read this article independently from the post earlier this week and it seemed more an attempt to make an ideological argument than a scientific one.
I don't disagree in principle, but transistors didn't get used in cellphones in the '50s & '60s because there was no market for them: cellphones didn't exist. So, if the spectrum assignment was done around 1947-50, there might well be a market for transistors in cellphones (instead of just hearing aids & radios).

That demand might also drive development of improved batteries; lower consumption from transistors versus vacuum tubes would already help.

Computing power, I'm less sure about, but I can't help think demand has an effect on innovation, the same as for batteries & transistors.

That said, I wonder about "networked" phones leading to something akin to Internet/World Wide Web without input from DARPA or DoD. Is that pie in the sky?
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