Early American Imperialism/ Industrial China

In the early 1850's, the United States was trying to open up Japan to the outside world. When Mathew Perry first arrived in Japan he delivered an Ultimatum, sign a treaty opening up to the west for trade, or be attacked.

My POD is that Japan refuses to open up, forcing Perry to attack Japan when he returned from china with an even bigger fleet. Did America have the capabillity in the 1850's to acquire and hold a colony in the far east? Could America have Imperialised Japan in the !850's?

I have another Idea for this scenario. In OTL China resisted Modernization, and Japan embraced it. What if this was reversed? China imbraces Westernization, and Japan resists. This leads to Japan being imperialized, and China becomes the eastern Juggernaut.

How plausible is this scenario. What might need to happen before hand to make it possible.
 
Scenario 1: The US probably couldn't conquer Japan in the the 1850s it simply didn't have the naval and military capability.
Scenario 2: An industrialized China would have even been more powerful then Japan simply due to its sheer size. It'll probably prevent France from annexing Indochina which could result in a war similar to the Russo-Japanese War.
 
The U.S. just flat out didn't have the power to conquer Japan at that point in time, and with the sectional tensions looming which would erupt into the Civil War, it wouldn't be especially inclined to commit resources to even make an attempt. The most that they could realistically do is bombard several Japanese ports and generally cause some mayhem, then continue this cycle until Japan eventually capitulated and agreed to open itself to trade.

As for China embracing Westernization, that is an entirely separate can of worms with its own in-depth discussion. Though I can say it is unlikely that Japan will remain closed if China Westernizes. In such a scenario, were China doing well undertaking its Westernization, Japan would likely follow its lead and attempt to do likewise.

Paradoxically, it seems that Japan embracing Westernization is likely somewhat inevitable, just for different reasons.
 
Top