You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly. You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
alternatehistory.com
What's the likelihood of an actual war breaking out in the East China Sea (say that something like this staring contest between PRC and Japanese ships goes pear-shaped, or a Chinese surveillance plane crashes on a disputed island under Japanese control (the reverse of that US plane that crashed back in 2001), and that gets really ugly)? Nationalist politicians on both sides raise the temperature, then some commander on the scene pushes things a little too far, and it gets out of control before Beijing or Tokyo can get a grip on it.
East Asia specialists - 1) How likely is that overall, 2) when's the best chance for it to have happened and 3) how bad could it have gotten?