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I'm not sure when that might have been. A peacetime draft was instituted in late November 1940 since it looked like the US might become involved at some point, but that was a preparedness move. There was no precipitating event in 1940 that might have led to entry into the conflict, as far as I know. It seems to me that there was a massive poker game going on in the Atlantic during the first half of 1941, with all-but-open hostilities between US ships and German U-boats (the Reuben James incident comes to mind). Might that have led to a declaration of war in, say, June 1941?

If so, that means the US enters the European war first. Would Japan have seized on the distraction as a prime opportunity to attack Pearl Harbor in, say, July 1941? Or would they have pressed the diplomatic position, betting on the US wanting to remove the Pacific as a diversion of men and materiel that would otherwise go to fight Hitler?
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